Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Alexander Dugin — Principles and strategy of coming war

This is a strategic analysis by Alexander Dugin, who is associated with Putin in the West, but he and Putin are actually at odds, Dugin being critical of Putin's management of Russia as insufficiently conservative in the Russian sense of the term. Dugin was removed from  his position as Head of the Department of Sociology of International Relations of Moscow State University in 2014 for his outspoken views toward Ukraine that many people found offensive. Dugin is not afraid to speak his mind very frankly. He is not the hothead that John McCain is though. He thinks things through.

This analysis is interesting for several reasons. First, Dugin is one of the top Russian thinkers of the day and while one many disagree with his point of view, one has to appreciate his command of the material. Secondly, Dugin lays out the internal dynamic Russia and the external challenges Russia faces from the liberal West, its historical enemy Turkey since the fall of the Byzantine Empire, and its Shiite allies who are opposed by both the Sunnis and Israel, who are Western allies. Thirdly, he describes how Russia alone stands in the ways of US global hegemony as a nuclear superpower and the only existential threat that the US faces while refusing to conform to US wishes. He views this position as the trajectory toward war.

The Fourth Revolutionary War
Principles and strategy of coming war
Alexander Dugin


Matt Franko said...

All they are doing in Syria is staving off a competing pipeline to Europe... same thing with Ukraine when gas went to $13 they reneged on that deal and f-ed the Ukraine thing all up...

All those two things are about is their economic self interests in those territories related to their pipelines to Europe... the rest like this guy is talking about is hand-waving...

If they were in Syria for real they would not let the water get cut off to Damascus...

Now the anti-jihadi stuff I agree is real... but Syria and Ukraine are just USD and EUR related... once the new pipelines are in place in the north and they get some contracts in place they will probably back off both in Ukraine and Syria...

Tom Hickey said...

All they are doing in Syria is staving off a competing pipeline to Europe... same thing with Ukraine when gas went to $13 they reneged on that deal and f-ed the Ukraine thing all up...

All they are doing?

This reduces all motivation in foreign policy and international relations to economic motivation. That overlooks the international relations, geopolitics, geostrategy, military strategy aspects that heavily influence those sectors of all major players. It's impossible to have economic-fianancial dominance of a region without political dominance, which ultimately boils down to who controls the ground (territory). This is why in endgames, boots on the ground are generally needed and occupation forces in the aftermath.

There are three major forces at work politically: economics and finance, geopolitics, and, of course, domestic politics, which even one party systems are affected by.

One of the big overlooked problems is that there is a foreign policy establishment and military policy establishment in each country that operates under a mindset and doctrine. In the US, this was established post-WWII by the Truman and Eisenhower administrations and continues to shape US elite thing about IR., giving US policy and deep operations continuity.

The link between the economic-fiancial aspect and the IR deep state aspect is the defense industry aka the military-industrial complex (MIC). This is the case not only with the US but all major players.

People study these matters in various disciplines and so the same type of thinking persists, even across centuries.

Bob said...

No US interest in Syria, yet they destroyed the country.

jrbarch said...

I wonder if the 'central banker 2016' award worried Elvira. The only bit I didn't like about Dugin's analysis was the consent towards 'light-darkness' being a mantle fought over by both sides, when it should be emphasised there is one humanity and the conflict is internal. The 'city' each side seeks is within humanity. 'Peace will be mankind's greatest achievement'.

This is what requires intelligence and intelligent thought. We should stop voting in chaotic minds to positions of power. Intelligence begins at the gates of peace. It makes us human when we use it, inhuman when we don't. Intellect and the selfish ego plan wars, degrading us to mere wilderness animals with thought. The Intelligence accepts peace lifting us to be human with life and unlimited potential.

It is not an economic or political arguement in the end - it is 'what does it mean to be human'?

Tom Hickey said...

The only bit I didn't like about Dugin's analysis was the consent towards 'light-darkness' being a mantle fought over by both sides, when it should be emphasised there is one humanity and the conflict is internal

Dugin is a Russian Orthodox Christian fundamentalist who believes along with other Orthodox, Catholic, and Protestant fundamentalists that social liberalism is the work of the devil and that the secular West has descended back into the darkness that enveloped the Roman Empire at the time of Jesus.

For these people this is battle between the children of light and those that live in the darkness.

Light vs darkness is biblical, and it is a strong metaphor among people of the Book.

This is the message we have heard from him and proclaim to you, that God is light and in him there is no darkness at all. — 1 John 1:5 NRSV

In Jewish mysticism, God is Infinite Light (Ayn Sof Aur).

In Christianity, Jesus is "the light of the world."

In Islam, Muhammad is called "the light of God" (Noor Allah).

In these people's eyes, this is a spiritual war and for many of them, we are in the End Times.

jrbarch said...

@ Tom

Wow! Blame it on the devil huh? Children squabbling with children. Some with white swords, some with red. Very convenient.

‘What was the religion of the Buddha’s grandfather’? Not Buddhism.

That’s mind – full of prejudice and concepts, beliefs, ID based in the ego; whilst Intelligence begins beyond the gates. If we don’t laugh we will cry. My God v. your God? There is no spiritual war; just mankind war. A large cold bucket of water is needed.

Once upon a time, the King led his army into battle. So, negotiation was always really important. The King realised if he were dead, his kingdom was of little use to him; and he of little use to his kingdom. In order to get the soldiers to fight, he had to lead them. Soldiers of today have lost that simple wisdom. They really should get it back - insist on leadership. So peace too, is a possibility.

Nowadays, people see war as the only possibility. There is a huge budget for war and virtually nothing for peace. The Kings sacrifice the kingdoms for themselves and not the other way around. People are afraid. They keep their heads down and work. Around the world there is a rumble, grumbling, insurrection in the ranks.

I concur: - because ‘Noor Allah’ is a part of the human constitution, real peace is always possible. But it needs to be felt, experienced, just like hunger and thirst, and satisfied – not just talked about or shoved into a religious strait jacket. From real peace, from the heart, worldly peace can always be negotiated. If mind is kept in its place. The essence of a human being is compassion.

And that which is ‘evil’ in the universe came from the same place as Noor Allah. I wonder if Dugin has ever thought about that? We have a choice and are carried on the river. We can feed the good wolf or the bad wolf. There is war on the outside and peace in the center. People really need to wake up to their vast human potential.