Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2011, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
BEA Advance GDP for 3rd Qtr + 2.5%
BEA with an advance GDP this morning, link here.
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4 comments:
Matt, Have the BEA's advanced growth estimates ever been revised upward?
From Mike: "It looks like PCE was the biggest contributor at 1.72%. Then came biz investment at 0.52, NE at .22 and gov't at 0."
Joe, Apparently yes these advanced figures can go up as the BEA releases further revisions to their quarterly estimates. here is a link to an example:
http://www.esa.doc.gov/sites/default/files/ei/documents/2011/September/gross_domestic_product_second_quarter_2011third_estimate.pdf
Personally I would have never figured the number would have been this high for the quarter that contained some pretty significant fiscal drag due to the debt ceiling debacle. Tho as Mike's email comment to me I posted above indicates, the govt sector "G" added net NO increase this quarter which I guess is pretty significant itself.
biz investment might have been helped by the uptick in C&I loans that took place in bank credit over the months of this subject quarter.
But that PCE portion is still a bit puzzling to me... maybe gas prices.
Resp,
It looks like Mike was right a month or two ago when he said he didn't see the fundamental problems for the kind of US economic weakness being discussed. Assuming there aren't big revisions in these numbers later, the economy held up very well, considering the new fiscal drag and much more importantly, the Euro crisis.
I was more skeptical and I still am looking forward to the next year or two, because I have no reason to believe the Europeans will do the right things. Nor do I have any reason to believe the US would do enough to counter growing Euro zone problems.
Anti,
Basically agree I think... not saying it is right, but the economy can what W Mosler describes as 'muddle through' and the S&Ps can actually increase earnings in this environment of high unemployment.
We need to keep awatch on it but as long as the govt doesnt go crazy with spending cuts in an effort to 'force the deficit down', this type of muddle thru can probably persist indefinitely...
Resp,
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