Dances with Bears
GRESHAM’S NEW LAW – IN WAR THERE IS NO LAW
John Helmer
An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
The first Eurasia Economic Forum, held last week in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, should be regarded as a milestone in setting the parameters for the geoeconomic integration of the Eurasian heartland.The Cradle
Sergei Glazyev, Russia’s Minister in Charge of Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), is coordinating the drive to design an alternative monetary-financial system – a de facto post-Bretton Woods III – in cooperation with China.
According to Glazyev, the forum “discussed the model of a new global settlement currency pegged to baskets of national currencies and commodities. The introduction of this currency instrument in Eurasia will entail the collapse of the dollar system and the final undermining of the US military and political power. It is necessary to start negotiations on signing an appropriate international treaty within the framework of the SCO.”
Glazyev described the initiative to upend the western global financial system in more detail during an exclusive interview with The Cradle in April.…
At this point, the president’s plan to bring down inflation can be summed up as follows:I joined Bloomberg TV’s David Westin to talk about this at noon today....
- Leave the Fed alone to hike rates and slow the economy
- Take proactive steps to reduce some costs and build more capacity
- Take proactive steps to cut the fiscal deficit even more
Bond EconomicsThe structure of financial markets is influenced by imbalances between how lenders would like to lend, and borrowers would like to borrow. The economist community often refers to “maturity transformation,” but this formulation is too vague to be useful. Instead, we need to look at a few axes of disagreement.
The structure of banks to a certain extent bridge these mismatches, which explains why they are the centre of financial markets. However, non-bank financial instruments can be structured to bridge the gap. It is therefore that there is a continual blurring between bank and non-bank finance as they attempt to move into each other's turf. It is also unsurprising that the so-called “crypto community” has ended up re-inventing the structures of traditional finance, since even internet money faces the same economic forces....
It only took about 6 decades or so. And, in between, there has been denial, fiction, and diversions. But here we are 2022 and work that was explicit in the 1960s is now being recognised by the central bank of the largest economy. In fact, the foundations of this new acceptance goes back to the C19th and was developed by you know who – K. Marx. Then a socialist in the 1940s wrote a path breaking article further building the foundations. And then a group of Marxist economists brought the ideas together as a coherent theory of inflation early 1970s as a counter to the growing Monetarist fiction that inflationary pressures were ultimately the product of irresponsible government policy designed to reduce unemployment below some ‘natural rate’. I am referring here to a Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) working paper – Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery – published on May 20, 2022 by the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System. I suppose it is progress but along the way – over those 6 decades – there have been a lot of casualties of the fiction central banks created in denial of these findings.
The topic is of course close to my heart given that I have specialised in the Phillips curve since early in my academic career....
Last month, I was in Brussels for a client event. Instead of the usual keynote address, I did a fireside chat with one of their senior market analysts. He put seven questions to me and then moderated an extended Q&A with the audience. It was a lot of fun.
Unfortunately, because it was a private event, there’s no recording for me to share with you. But I thought the questions—and my responses—might be of interest. To avoid writing one really long post, I’ve decided to divide it into a seven-part series.
I’ll answer the first question today, but here’s a preview of what’s to come.…
Bravo!
The event is entirely virtual this year. It’s also free and open to the public.
The EAEU comprises five full members – Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Armenia – yet 14 nations sent delegations to the forum, including China, Vietnam and Latin American nations.…
The Eurasian Economic Forum was established by the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council explicitly to further deepen economic cooperation between EAEU members. No wonder the official theme of the forum was Eurasian Economic Integration in the Era of Global Shifts: New Investment Opportunities, focusing on strategic development in the industrial, energy, transport, financial, and digital areas.
President Putin’s speech to the plenary session was quite revealing. To really appreciate the scope of what’s implied, it’s important to remember that the Greater Eurasian Partnership concept was presented by Putin in 2016 at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, focused on a “more extensive Eurasian partnership involving the Eurasian Economic Union” and including China, Pakistan, Iran and India.
Putin stressed how the drive for developing ties “within the framework of the Greater Eurasian Partnership” (…) “was not the political situation but global economic trends, because the centre of economic development is gradually – we are aware of this, and our businesspeople are aware of this – is gradually moving, continues to move into the Asia-Pacific Region.”
He added, “in the current international conditions when, unfortunately, traditional trade and economic links and supply chains are being disrupted”, the Greater Eurasian Partnership “is gaining a special meaning.”
Putin established a direct connection not only between the Greater Eurasian Partnership and EAEU members but also “BRICS members such as China and India”, “the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, ASEAN and other organizations.”
And that’s the core of the whole, ongoing, multi-layered process of Eurasia integration, with the China-led New Silk Roads intersecting with the Eurasia Economic Union, the SCO, BRICS+, and other converging strategies.Read the whole post. It's even more expansive than this, encompassing the entire Global South/East. This is advancing quickly, spurred by Western unipolarism in the form of globalization under neoliberalism, neo-imperialism and neocolonialism that the South/East countries view as a form of fascism instead of true liberalism and insofar as it is "liberal," it is anti-traditionalist, while the majority of the South/East is culturally and institutionally traditionalist.
Putin for his part was careful to define the Greater Eurasian Partnership as “a big civilizational project. The main idea is to create a common space for equitable cooperation for regional organizations”, changing “the political and economic architecture on the entire continent.”
The world is changing fast.
Where it all started… if Russia fucks with Poland it might really be on… many are either too old or too young to understand…
Umpire is Art Degree all the way (or uneducated and polluted with Art Degree tendency) … Art Degree morons no ability to make adjustments…
Excellent summary of basic MMT principles with specific reference to British institutions and policy.
The New StatesmanThe Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest version of – Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia – today (May 26, 2022), which is part of several releases leading up to the publication of the March-quarter National Accounts next Wednesday. Today’s business investment data shouws that private new capital expenditure in Australia fell by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter but was up by 4.5 per cent on the year. With the uncertainty continuing about the extent and duration of the current supply-side disruptions, the decline in business investment was, in fact, modest. And the expected investment plans signal that there is still no sense of crisis among those responsible for capital expenditure. One of the challenges facing the new Federal government is to maintain optimism in the economy in order to avoid the current-quarter decline in business investment becoming consolidated. If the new Treasurer keeps harping on about the $A1 trillion debt and the need to cut the fiscal deficit, they will fail that challenge and business will get spooked and we will head towards recession with on-going inflationary pressures....Bill Mitchell – billy blog
It’s Wednesday and I just finished a ‘Conversation’ with the Economics Society of Australia, where I talked about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to current policy issues. Some of the questions were excellent and challenging to answer, which is the best way. You can view an edited version of the discussion below and then enjoy The Meters....Bill Mitchell – billy blog
I had an article planned and started, but I got caught up with events. Instead, I just wanted to make a few comments about the dreaded “shadow banking” sector — non-bank finance. I had seen a few articles complaining about lack of regulation and risks posed by shadow banks, which I think is just extrapolating the last financial crisis.Bond Economics
I had written a sequence of articles on banks (first one here), in which I emphasised that financial flows are circular. If the flows are not circular, things break, and you get a crisis. The issue is that shadow banking is outside the view of regulators, and hence things can blow up.
We told you this years ago… now WSJ finally catching up…
WSJ parroting Mike’s long held opinion; saying it would cause a “political problem” but imo negative equity position technically implies insolvency or a pending insolvency…
It’s also funny here that WSJ refers to “rising interest rates!” as if the Fed itself doesn’t control the interest rate…
All they have to do to avoid this problem is not increase the rates above what their short term liabilities will allow… which is about another 1%…
Rising interest rates could one day lead the central bank to pay out more in interest than it earns, creating a political headache https://t.co/qY0bC5SvVQ
— WSJ Central Banks (@WSJCentralBanks) May 23, 2022
Mike beaks it down in a YouTube here along with his daily markets summary:
Australia has a new federal government. We have finally rid ourselves of the worst government in my lifetime. An indecent, lying, corrupt government. A government that messed up so many important things yet never took responsibility. During the pandemic, it was the state governments that saved the day, while being hectored by the federal government to abandon restrictions. Thankfully the state premiers held firm. The outgoing federal government has attacked minorities and the poor. It has gutted the higher education system and the public broadcaster. It has installed its cronies throughout the public sector and other important regulative bodies. It has been a vehicle for the coal lobby. It has failed to support the growing needs of women against domestic violence. It has now received its marching orders. I had a glass of champagne on Saturday evening to celebrate the passing of this awful gang. I hope we have a ‘night of the long knives’ and the new government cleans out all the cronies and appoints progressives to these important positions. In general, the policy direction will improve. But all is not well given the predominance of neoliberals in senior economics positions in the new government. I hope they broaden the advice they receive. But for now – we have rid ourselves of this awful government.Bill Mitchell – billy blog
This is her story and she is sticking to it…. (I think her use of “DNA” here is figurative)…
.@ARKInvest must share more of our research about #artificialgeneralintelligence (AGI) and how it is likely to transform the way the world works. Within 6-12 years, breakthroughs in AGI could a accelerate growth in GDP from 3-5% per year to 30-50% per year. New DNA will win! https://t.co/RxVp8K4IK4
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) May 22, 2022
RT Just sent me (unexpectedly) the OFF-CAMERA discussion, FYI.
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* Vast Swath of US at Risk of Summer Blackouts, Regulator Warns
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 18, 2022
@business (h/t @JohnSpall247) pic.twitter.com/63MjX93sUW