Wednesday, March 26, 2025

The Hidden Power of Sovereign Wealth Funds — NeilW

A recent UnHerd article warns of a “crypto time bomb,” suggesting that stablecoins could become a geopolitical tool to undermine the U.S. economy by redirecting foreign dollar reserves into U.S. Treasuries. The core assumption is that countries like Japan are sitting on idle piles of dollars, waiting for a stablecoin intermediary to put them to use.

This misreads how international finance operates. Like other major dollar holders, Japan doesn’t need help managing reserves. Dollars earned from trade surpluses are immediately reinvested, often into U.S. Treasuries. There are no dormant pools of dollars needing a middleman. The real action lies not in crypto or stablecoins but in how governments use their currency-issuing powers to actively manage currencies and reserves.
The Real Mechanism: Sovereign Wealth Funds

The real geopolitical financial weapon is the sovereign wealth fund (SWF), not digital tokens. Governments have long used SWFs and their variations to manage foreign exchange reserves, intervene in markets, and subtly manipulate currency values....
New Wayland

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

DOGE deletes 7M Federal ID numbers


If these numbers represent illegal alien people currently working using other dead peoples ID numbers, when the payroll taxes are paid this week and 7M fraud notices go out to the employers it could turn out Elon actually threw 7 million people out of their jobs this week … it could create a mass firing event of 7 million people who are currently working (albeit illegally but nevertheless) in the economy, …. causing a collapse in output and a collapse in tax receipts going forward…

Mike will immediately see the corresponding drop in YoY tax receipts in his reporting data if this is what is really happening… we have to wait and shortly see if this is the real effect is of this policy…

If so, the benefit to Trump politically might come when they rerun the SS actuarial numbers without the future accrued liabilities of the 7 million now marked as dead people… Then he may be able to give current recipients a boost because the SS  “trust fund!” might appear over funded…







Thursday, March 20, 2025

The Effects of Modern Monetary Theory on the Structure of Production — Patrick Newman

 For the record. From an Austrian economist.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the debt monetization proposals of Modern Monetary Theory from an Austrian structure of production perspective. It shows that this policy raises societal time preferences and reduces the number of higher order stages in the economy, leading to a higher interest rate, lower economic growth, and increased prices of consumer goods. In order to demonstrate this, it goes back to the basics and investigates the nature of government spending and how it differs from investment. I argue that Murray Rothbard, a staunch critic of Keynesian economics who would have also fiercely opposed MMT had he lived to see its rise, was correct to classify government expenditures as unproductive consumption that detract from genuine marketplace economic output. I then defend Rothbard’s position by explaining the very serious concerns some economists had in the 1930s and 1940s regarding how to measure government’s contribution to aggregate production statistics. Armed with a proper understanding of government’s antithetical nature to investment, the chapter is then able to explain why MMT’s proposal to expand the money supply to finance government spending shortens the production structure.
"I argue that Murray Rothbard, a staunch critic of Keynesian economics who would have also fiercely opposed MMT had he lived to see its rise, was correct to classify government expenditures as unproductive consumption that detract from genuine marketplace economic output."

This is a huge assumption that Keynesians of all types, many if not most institutionalists and Marxists and neo-Marxists would reject. Some neoclassical economists would agree with this assumption although perhaps in a weaker form. 

This assumption is pertinent at present since it lies at the foundation of DOGE and seems to reflect Elon Musk's monetarist thinking about economics and finance. 

Libertarians would of course agree with the assumption that government expenditure is unproductive and that they should be cut in favor of lower taxes. This is assumption correlates with the assumption that there are no public goods, only private goods.

The market-based state is also foundational for neoliberalism.


SSRN
The Effects of Modern Monetary Theory on the Structure of Production
Patrick Newman, Assistant Teaching Professor of Economics, University of Tampa

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Reserve flows under debt ceiling

 

TGA down at 450b area now … 

So let’s assume they keep screwing around and eventually bottom it out at 50b leaving the current threat at 400b reserves in TGA that could be forced upon the banking system … 

To cover that 400b, banks would need at least 1/10th of that in capital for SLR of 0.1 … (might be a bit less) but we’ll be conservative …

 1/10th is 40b… so eg if banks were given 40b of additional free capital right now,  then they could cover those additional 400b reserve assets without effecting any other asset levels/prices at the banks…

IOR is providing additional free capital to the banks every month…

H.4.1 this week has reserves now up at >3.4T and IOR is 4.40% so that is approx 12b per month of capital flowing to banks every month … 40b/12b per month = 3.333 months so in a bit over 3 months the banks will have been given the additional capital to potentially support a TGA drawdown to 50b … 

We are about to head into a period of at least fiscal balance as taxes are paid (maybe even surplus) … so if we can stabilize TGA here for 3 months then banks might have near the additional 40b of additional capital by then that they will need to cover an additional 400b of reserve flow from TGA  .. 

So we could stabilize here at the current 10% drop in equities level for a while here if TGA stabilizes…

Then quickly recover this 10% drop when ceiling raised (allowing restart of reserve asset “drains!”) and Fed starts to cut rates in May or June (increasing all bank asset NPVs and capital) … 

The problem has been TGA has dropped from 800b to 450b in just the short period since ceiling hit on Fed 20th forcing non risk reserve assets to flow towards the banks and  negatively effecting the values/quatity of risk assets to maintain a required constant regulatory ratio…

Not out of the woods yet but maybe some relief from the constant liquidation on the way due to the typical fiscal calendar seasonality…. 

🤞



Tuesday, March 11, 2025

The Loan Lock Paradox — NeilW

It’s been over ten years since the Bank of England published Money creation in the modern economy, yet despite that, I run into people daily parroting untruths about how banking works. As part of the update to the UK Accounting Model, we will enhance the banking chapter to cover how lending institutions work and highlight some of the intriguing artefacts that a proper understanding reveals....
New Wayland

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Grok: “cash injection pumping liquidity!”

 

Musk’s “AI” can’t apply regulatory math (maybe THIS is where he gets it?):



This is funny from it: “Risk assets like stocks may get a short-term boost…” 

LOL stocks are in a free fall!  Grok: “down is the new up!”…

How does a constant proportional (simply numerator divided by denominator) financial leverage system get a risk price increase when non-risk is being added?  It’s 8th grade Algebra… grok can’t apply it…

I think grok is based on language so it’s apparently susceptible to the same reification errors that typical liberal Art (discussion) method Econ is susceptible to… we see it all the time… it just picks up the popular language … is this really valuable?

We in big trouble with these people and their “AI” so-called…



Sunday, March 2, 2025

It’s finally March 2025, and I can hardly believe that a date I’ve had in the diary for such a long time has finally arrived. It means, at long last, I can call time on a 30-year contracting career and retire from full-time work….

Congratulations on your retirement. Looking forward to your new focus on MMT research.

New Wayland
Time for a Change
NeilW

Treasury “injects cash!”

 

LOL … yo risk prices went DOWN you fcking idiots… it caused a sell off… forcibly adding non-risk to same system balance sheet causes risk prices to REDUCE… 



Sunday, February 23, 2025

Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Primer — NeilW

This primer outlines why the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is the most effective and equitable approach for the UK economy. It explains why interest rates should be permanently set to zero, how banking reform can create a more stable and fair financial system, and why clear, enforceable, and accountable loan regulation is essential for long-term prosperity.
New Wayland

The Introduction of the Euro–A Catalyst for Eurozone Economic Decline? The Effects of the Euro: An Analysis from a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Perspective — Jim Byrne

“…whenever I am studying European data I think how stupid the European Monetary Union (EMU) is from a modern monetary theory (MMT) perspective.“ MMT Economist Bill Mitchell
MMT101.ORG - Learn Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
The Introduction of the Euro – A Catalyst for Eurozone Economic Decline?
The Effects of the Euro: An Analysis from a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Perspective.

Jim Byrne - MMT101.ORG

Saturday, February 15, 2025

The Rise of the Modern Monetary System: An Integration of the Credit and State Money Approaches— L. Randall Wray

 This working paper integrates the credit money approach (associated with Post Keynesian endogenous money theory) with the state money approach (associated with Modern Money Theory) by drawing on Wray’s 1990 book (Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies: The Endogenous Money Approach, Edward Elgar), his 1998 book (Understanding Modern Money: the Key to Full Employment and Price Stability, Edward Elgar), and his 2004 edited book (Credit and State Theories of Money: The Contributions of A. Mitchell Innes, Edward Elgar). New sources and interpretation of the history of money make it clear that there is no contradiction between state money and private credit money—each played a role in the creation of the modern monetary system. Indeed, today’s system was created by bringing state money into the private money giro, thereby strengthening both.

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
The Rise of the Modern Monetary System: An Integration of the Credit and State Money Approaches
L. Randall Wray | Professor of Economics, Bard College

Episode 11 (S2) of the Smith Family Manga is now available–intergenerational tensions arise within the Smith household — Bill Mitchell

Today (February 13, 2025), MMTed releases Episode 11 in the Second Season of our Manga series – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money. Have a bit of fun with it while learning Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and circulate it to those who you think will benefit....
William Mitchell — Modern Monetary Theory
Episode 11 (S2) of the Smith Family Manga is now available – intergenerational tensions arise within the Smith household
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

DOGE rant


Mike with epic rant against the DOGE propaganda .. instant classic!






Saturday, February 8, 2025

Trump's Executive Order to Rename Debt and Deficits — Stephanie Kelton

Rename "debt" and "deficit" to reflect reality.

The Lens
Trump's Executive Order to Rename Debt and Deficits
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Bessent says he and Trump focusing on 10-year Treasury yields—not Fed policy

 

This is 100% pure BS…. They surely want the Fed to lower the rates… don’t believe it…





Wednesday, February 5, 2025

The US Needs a Sovereign Wealth Fund Like a Fish Needs a Bicycle — Stephanie Kelton

It was 2020, and Trump was responding to a question about a $6.2 trillion fiscal package (emergency COVID spending plus day-to-day operations). The reporter might have been confused about where the money was coming from, but Trump wasn’t. “The beautiful thing about our country is…we can handle that easily because of who we are—what we are—it’s our money…it’s our currency,” he explained.…

Understanding what it means to issue a sovereign currency is at the core of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). If you’re new to MMT, click this link and watch Professor L. Randall Wray explain. The bottom line is that a currency-issuing government, like the United States, never has to worry about “finding the money.” As Wray explains, the money gets spent into existence when Congress authorizes a budget and the payments are made. (Incidentally, it works that way in the UK and in other countries with sovereign currencies as well.)

If you’ve been following MMT for a while, you’ve probably heard Warren Mosler refer to the U.S. as the “scorekeeper” for the US$. His point is that we shouldn’t think of a currency-issuing government as “having” or “not having” any dollars. The scorekeeper maintains the spreadsheet by crediting and debiting bank accounts as the government spends (adds) and taxes (subtracts) dollars from the various “players” in the game. When there’s a Congressional appropriation for $6.2 trillion, the government creates $6.2 trillion. It literally spends the money into existence. That’s the power of a sovereign currency.

It’s hard to see why anyone who understands how a sovereign currency works would be pushing a sovereign wealth fund. Even if it became “one of the biggest funds” in the world, as Trump envisions, it wouldn’t give the federal government any spending power it doesn’t already have. 

So what exactly does the president intend to do with a sovereign wealth fund that can't be done without one, or at least not as effectively or efficiently? Or did he forget what he knew?

The Lens
The US Needs a Sovereign Wealth Fund Like a Fish Needs a Bicycle
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Your 4-Step Guide to Understanding the 2008 Financial Crash & Subsequent Recession From a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Perspective — Jim Byrne

Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are once again talking about rolling back banking regulations to kick-start growth. This article is a timely reminder of why those regulations exist.
MMT101.ORG - Learn Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Your 4-Step Guide to Understanding the 2008 Financial Crash & Subsequent Recession — From a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Perspective
Jim Byrne | MMT Scotland

Canada response to tariffs

 

Where was this play in the Art degree Keynesian free market fundamentalism playbook?  I thought the Canada people were just supposed to add the tariff onto the price of the products?  Instead they are removing the products from inventories… going to create a glut of these products in the US and US prices are going to fall to get rid of it … no “inflation!”… 🤔





Fed on tariffs

 

LOL … then according to Art degree monetarists they should reduce the rate to figure of speech  “counter the headwinds!”.. which is what Trump wants them to do in the first place… 




Saturday, February 1, 2025

2025 Fiscal

 

Looks like DOGE/Elon trying to reduce top line by $1T by September… US GDP $27T/yr…. So no multiple that’s a direct 3.7% … 

I guess they think they’re only reducing govt spending on unnecessary regulatory activities or something… climate nutter stuff etc… maybe the “Argentina model”… 🤔




He seems to understand the Art degree figure of speech “money!” as rather a scientific abstraction:






Thursday, January 30, 2025

The Case of the Missing Report–Part 2 — Bill Mitchell

Today, we solve the ‘Case of the Missing Report’. Recall from – The Case of the Missing Report – Part 1 – that the Asian Development Bank published a report I had written (with Randy Wray and Jesus Felipe) – A Reinterpretation of Pakistan’s ‘economic crisis’ and options for policymakers (draft version) – in June 2009 as part of work I was undertaking for the Bank at the time on economic development in Central Asia. The report was published on June 1, 2009 as an official ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 after our presentations were enthusiastically received at the Bank during seminars we gave. The Report was indexed by the major bibliographic and indexing services and evidence of that report still exists today. For example, the Asian Regional Integration Center provides a link to some 30 records covering – Pakistan – including our ADB paper with the official publication date. The ‘official’ link to the publication – https://www.adb.org/Documents/Working-Papers/2009/Economics-WP163.pdf – however, now returns a ‘Page not Found’ error. Then, if you search for ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 on the ADB WWW Site you will find another paper – The Optimal Structure of Technology Adoption and Creation: Basic Research vs. Development in the Presence of Distance to Frontier – which somehow became Working Paper No 163 and was also published in June 2009. So what gives? How did our ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 disappear from the face of the Earth to be replaced by another ADB Working Paper No. 163, all in the space of a day or so? In this Part 2 of the ‘Case of the Missing Report’, I provide the solution to the mystery....
William Mitchell — Modern Monetary Theory
The Case of the Missing Report – Part 2
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

NVDA exports

 

Art degree morons as usual can’t understand the Accounting abstractions… think NVDA has to be shipping the REAL units to where the Accounting ABSTRACTIONS are recorded…

Like I guess they think we’re importing $300B net of Guinness, Jameson and potatoes from Ireland…

It’s the same as the current Trump “tariffs!” womanish soap opera… A LOT of people are going to get that wrong for the same reasons…



Monday, January 27, 2025

The Case of the Missing Report – Part 1 — Bill Mitchell

 This blog post is a long time in gestation and I could have written in 2009 which is the relevant year of the events that I will document in this two-part series. My conversations with government officials during my working trip to the Philippines last week highlighted several things, including their sheer terror of IMF intervention and the ratings agency. I will write separately about that in a later post. But the IMF watches these types of nations like a hawk and is ready to pounce to enforce their authority at the slightest departure from the neoliberal macroeconomic policy line. As long as these types of nations concede to the IMF bullying they have very little hope of developing towards being advanced states. And IMF bullying is what this blog post is about. This is Part 1 of a two-part story that might be summarised as the ‘Case of the Missing Report’. I will solve the mystery in Part 2, which will be published on Thursday of this week.

William Mitchell — Modern Monetary Theory
The Case of the Missing Report – Part 1
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

The Impact of 25% Tariffs on Canadian GDP—The Bank of Canada vs Deepseek — Stephanie Kelton

Stephanie asks Deepseek.

The Lens
The Impact of 25% Tariffs on Canadian GDP—The Bank of Canada vs Deepseek
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders

Sunday, January 26, 2025

What is the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment Telling Us? — Stephanie Kelton

 Expectations.

The Lens
What is the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment Telling Us?
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders

Source of funds for tariffs

 

This statement/tweet isn’t exclusively true:





the foreign entities can simply lower their import prices in USD terms and access these foreign USD account balances as source of USDs to pay any new tariffs:

 



A Framework for a Basic Bank — NeilW

In analysis, it’s helpful to simplify and focus on the core elements of a system. Today, we will identify the essential processes and structures required to create a functional bank, accompanied by diagrams to illustrate these key processes.
New Wayland Blog
A Framework for a Basic Bank
NeilW

Friday, January 24, 2025

Climate nutters useful idiots for insurance scammers

 

Can’t even make it up… moron intellectual degenerate Art degree climate nutters (who couldn’t tell you the atomic number of hydrogen) running interference for the insurance scammers…