A recent UnHerd article warns of a “crypto time bomb,” suggesting that stablecoins could become a geopolitical tool to undermine the U.S. economy by redirecting foreign dollar reserves into U.S. Treasuries. The core assumption is that countries like Japan are sitting on idle piles of dollars, waiting for a stablecoin intermediary to put them to use.
This misreads how international finance operates. Like other major dollar holders, Japan doesn’t need help managing reserves. Dollars earned from trade surpluses are immediately reinvested, often into U.S. Treasuries. There are no dormant pools of dollars needing a middleman. The real action lies not in crypto or stablecoins but in how governments use their currency-issuing powers to actively manage currencies and reserves.
The Real Mechanism: Sovereign Wealth Funds
The real geopolitical financial weapon is the sovereign wealth fund (SWF), not digital tokens. Governments have long used SWFs and their variations to manage foreign exchange reserves, intervene in markets, and subtly manipulate currency values....
Mike Norman Economics
An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
Wednesday, March 26, 2025
The Hidden Power of Sovereign Wealth Funds — NeilW
Tuesday, March 25, 2025
DOGE deletes 7M Federal ID numbers
If so, the benefit to Trump politically might come when they rerun the SS actuarial numbers without the future accrued liabilities of the 7 million now marked as dead people… Then he may be able to give current recipients a boost because the SS “trust fund!” might appear over funded…
For the past 3 weeks, @SocialSecurity has been executing a major cleanup of their records. Approximately 7 million numberholders, all listed age 120+, have now been marked as deceased.
— Department of Government Efficiency (@DOGE) March 25, 2025
Another ~5 million to go. https://t.co/wtfYvYMIeW pic.twitter.com/z2GUQnPkhd
Thursday, March 20, 2025
The Effects of Modern Monetary Theory on the Structure of Production — Patrick Newman
For the record. From an Austrian economist.
Abstract"I argue that Murray Rothbard, a staunch critic of Keynesian economics who would have also fiercely opposed MMT had he lived to see its rise, was correct to classify government expenditures as unproductive consumption that detract from genuine marketplace economic output."
This paper analyzes the debt monetization proposals of Modern Monetary Theory from an Austrian structure of production perspective. It shows that this policy raises societal time preferences and reduces the number of higher order stages in the economy, leading to a higher interest rate, lower economic growth, and increased prices of consumer goods. In order to demonstrate this, it goes back to the basics and investigates the nature of government spending and how it differs from investment. I argue that Murray Rothbard, a staunch critic of Keynesian economics who would have also fiercely opposed MMT had he lived to see its rise, was correct to classify government expenditures as unproductive consumption that detract from genuine marketplace economic output. I then defend Rothbard’s position by explaining the very serious concerns some economists had in the 1930s and 1940s regarding how to measure government’s contribution to aggregate production statistics. Armed with a proper understanding of government’s antithetical nature to investment, the chapter is then able to explain why MMT’s proposal to expand the money supply to finance government spending shortens the production structure.
Patrick Newman, Assistant Teaching Professor of Economics, University of Tampa
Sunday, March 16, 2025
An Explanation Of Why Taxes Don’t Fund Spending—And Why Elon Musk Is Wrong About The US Government Deficit — Jim Byrne
MMT101.ORG - Learn Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
An Explanation Of Why Taxes Don’t Fund Spending—And Why Elon Musk Is Wrong About The US Government Deficit
Jim Byrne - MMT101.ORG
Saturday, March 15, 2025
Reserve flows under debt ceiling
TGA down at 450b area now …
Tuesday, March 11, 2025
The Loan Lock Paradox — NeilW
It’s been over ten years since the Bank of England published Money creation in the modern economy, yet despite that, I run into people daily parroting untruths about how banking works. As part of the update to the UK Accounting Model, we will enhance the banking chapter to cover how lending institutions work and highlight some of the intriguing artefacts that a proper understanding reveals....
Saturday, March 8, 2025
Grok: “cash injection pumping liquidity!”
Musk’s “AI” can’t apply regulatory math (maybe THIS is where he gets it?):
The graph shows the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance dropping sharply recently, hitting its lowest since COVID. This $170B cash injection over 3 days signals the U.S. Treasury exhausting debt ceiling measures, pumping liquidity into the economy. Risk assets like stocks may…
— Grok (@grok) March 8, 2025
This is funny from it: “Risk assets like stocks may get a short-term boost…”
LOL stocks are in a free fall! Grok: “down is the new up!”…
How does a constant proportional (simply numerator divided by denominator) financial leverage system get a risk price increase when non-risk is being added? It’s 8th grade Algebra… grok can’t apply it…
I think grok is based on language so it’s apparently susceptible to the same reification errors that typical liberal Art (discussion) method Econ is susceptible to… we see it all the time… it just picks up the popular language … is this really valuable?
We in big trouble with these people and their “AI” so-called…
Sunday, March 2, 2025
It’s finally March 2025, and I can hardly believe that a date I’ve had in the diary for such a long time has finally arrived. It means, at long last, I can call time on a 30-year contracting career and retire from full-time work….
Congratulations on your retirement. Looking forward to your new focus on MMT research.
New WaylandTime for a Change
NeilW
Treasury “injects cash!”
LOL … yo risk prices went DOWN you fcking idiots… it caused a sell off… forcibly adding non-risk to same system balance sheet causes risk prices to REDUCE…
Here comes the flood: Treasury injects avalanche of cash into the economy ($170BN in 3 days, the most since covid) as debt ceilling extraordinary measures are exhausted; Should prop up risk pic.twitter.com/N3sDuQG70w
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 2, 2025
Sunday, February 23, 2025
Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Primer — NeilW
This primer outlines why the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is the most effective and equitable approach for the UK economy. It explains why interest rates should be permanently set to zero, how banking reform can create a more stable and fair financial system, and why clear, enforceable, and accountable loan regulation is essential for long-term prosperity.
The Introduction of the Euro–A Catalyst for Eurozone Economic Decline? The Effects of the Euro: An Analysis from a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Perspective — Jim Byrne
“…whenever I am studying European data I think how stupid the European Monetary Union (EMU) is from a modern monetary theory (MMT) perspective.“ MMT Economist Bill Mitchell
The Effects of the Euro: An Analysis from a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Perspective.
Jim Byrne - MMT101.ORG
Friday, February 21, 2025
You Know Nothing About Economics—But there is no shame in that — Thomas Swan
Saturday, February 15, 2025
The Rise of the Modern Monetary System: An Integration of the Credit and State Money Approaches— L. Randall Wray
This working paper integrates the credit money approach (associated with Post Keynesian endogenous money theory) with the state money approach (associated with Modern Money Theory) by drawing on Wray’s 1990 book (Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies: The Endogenous Money Approach, Edward Elgar), his 1998 book (Understanding Modern Money: the Key to Full Employment and Price Stability, Edward Elgar), and his 2004 edited book (Credit and State Theories of Money: The Contributions of A. Mitchell Innes, Edward Elgar). New sources and interpretation of the history of money make it clear that there is no contradiction between state money and private credit money—each played a role in the creation of the modern monetary system. Indeed, today’s system was created by bringing state money into the private money giro, thereby strengthening both.
The Rise of the Modern Monetary System: An Integration of the Credit and State Money Approaches
L. Randall Wray | Professor of Economics, Bard College
Episode 11 (S2) of the Smith Family Manga is now available–intergenerational tensions arise within the Smith household — Bill Mitchell
Today (February 13, 2025), MMTed releases Episode 11 in the Second Season of our Manga series – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money. Have a bit of fun with it while learning Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and circulate it to those who you think will benefit....
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Saturday, February 8, 2025
Trump's Executive Order to Rename Debt and Deficits — Stephanie Kelton
The Lens
Trump's Executive Order to Rename Debt and Deficits
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders
Thursday, February 6, 2025
Bessent says he and Trump focusing on 10-year Treasury yields—not Fed policy
This is 100% pure BS…. They surely want the Fed to lower the rates… don’t believe it…
Bloomberg: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he and Trump are focusing on 10-year Treasury yields—not Fed policyhttps://t.co/rIUuEBHUAK pic.twitter.com/quBnoYdwsg
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) February 6, 2025
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
The US Needs a Sovereign Wealth Fund Like a Fish Needs a Bicycle — Stephanie Kelton
It was 2020, and Trump was responding to a question about a $6.2 trillion fiscal package (emergency COVID spending plus day-to-day operations). The reporter might have been confused about where the money was coming from, but Trump wasn’t. “The beautiful thing about our country is…we can handle that easily because of who we are—what we are—it’s our money…it’s our currency,” he explained.…Understanding what it means to issue a sovereign currency is at the core of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). If you’re new to MMT, click this link and watch Professor L. Randall Wray explain. The bottom line is that a currency-issuing government, like the United States, never has to worry about “finding the money.” As Wray explains, the money gets spent into existence when Congress authorizes a budget and the payments are made. (Incidentally, it works that way in the UK and in other countries with sovereign currencies as well.)
If you’ve been following MMT for a while, you’ve probably heard Warren Mosler refer to the U.S. as the “scorekeeper” for the US$. His point is that we shouldn’t think of a currency-issuing government as “having” or “not having” any dollars. The scorekeeper maintains the spreadsheet by crediting and debiting bank accounts as the government spends (adds) and taxes (subtracts) dollars from the various “players” in the game. When there’s a Congressional appropriation for $6.2 trillion, the government creates $6.2 trillion. It literally spends the money into existence. That’s the power of a sovereign currency.
It’s hard to see why anyone who understands how a sovereign currency works would be pushing a sovereign wealth fund. Even if it became “one of the biggest funds” in the world, as Trump envisions, it wouldn’t give the federal government any spending power it doesn’t already have.
The US Needs a Sovereign Wealth Fund Like a Fish Needs a Bicycle
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders
Sunday, February 2, 2025
Your 4-Step Guide to Understanding the 2008 Financial Crash & Subsequent Recession From a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Perspective — Jim Byrne
Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are once again talking about rolling back banking regulations to kick-start growth. This article is a timely reminder of why those regulations exist.MMT101.ORG - Learn Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Your 4-Step Guide to Understanding the 2008 Financial Crash & Subsequent Recession — From a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Perspective
Jim Byrne | MMT Scotland
Canada response to tariffs
Where was this play in the Art degree Keynesian free market fundamentalism playbook? I thought the Canada people were just supposed to add the tariff onto the price of the products? Instead they are removing the products from inventories… going to create a glut of these products in the US and US prices are going to fall to get rid of it … no “inflation!”… 🤔
Canada’s biggest province said it will remove American products from its government-run liquor stores as part of its response to President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian imports https://t.co/a2sCx4ajuE
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 2, 2025
Fed on tariffs
LOL … then according to Art degree monetarists they should reduce the rate to figure of speech “counter the headwinds!”.. which is what Trump wants them to do in the first place…
We read the transcripts of the Fed's 2019 meetings so you don't have to, and here's the main takeaway: The headwinds they felt from Trump's tariffs were strong https://t.co/57LOVFGjbn
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 2, 2025
Saturday, February 1, 2025
2025 Fiscal
Looks like DOGE/Elon trying to reduce top line by $1T by September… US GDP $27T/yr…. So no multiple that’s a direct 3.7% …
I guess they think they’re only reducing govt spending on unnecessary regulatory activities or something… climate nutter stuff etc… maybe the “Argentina model”… 🤔
Reducing the federal deficit from $2T to $1T in FY2026 requires cutting an average of ~$4B/day in projected 2026 spending from now to Sept 30.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 31, 2025
That would still result in a ~$1T deficit, but economic growth should be able to match that number, which would mean no inflation in…
He seems to understand the Art degree figure of speech “money!” as rather a scientific abstraction:
The real economy is not money, it is goods & services.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 31, 2025
Money is simply an abstract representation of real things. https://t.co/mmOHBdTmkr
Thursday, January 30, 2025
The Case of the Missing Report–Part 2 — Bill Mitchell
Today, we solve the ‘Case of the Missing Report’. Recall from – The Case of the Missing Report – Part 1 – that the Asian Development Bank published a report I had written (with Randy Wray and Jesus Felipe) – A Reinterpretation of Pakistan’s ‘economic crisis’ and options for policymakers (draft version) – in June 2009 as part of work I was undertaking for the Bank at the time on economic development in Central Asia. The report was published on June 1, 2009 as an official ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 after our presentations were enthusiastically received at the Bank during seminars we gave. The Report was indexed by the major bibliographic and indexing services and evidence of that report still exists today. For example, the Asian Regional Integration Center provides a link to some 30 records covering – Pakistan – including our ADB paper with the official publication date. The ‘official’ link to the publication – https://www.adb.org/Documents/Working-Papers/2009/Economics-WP163.pdf – however, now returns a ‘Page not Found’ error. Then, if you search for ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 on the ADB WWW Site you will find another paper – The Optimal Structure of Technology Adoption and Creation: Basic Research vs. Development in the Presence of Distance to Frontier – which somehow became Working Paper No 163 and was also published in June 2009. So what gives? How did our ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 disappear from the face of the Earth to be replaced by another ADB Working Paper No. 163, all in the space of a day or so? In this Part 2 of the ‘Case of the Missing Report’, I provide the solution to the mystery....
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
NVDA exports
Art degree morons as usual can’t understand the Accounting abstractions… think NVDA has to be shipping the REAL units to where the Accounting ABSTRACTIONS are recorded…
Like I guess they think we’re importing $300B net of Guinness, Jameson and potatoes from Ireland…
It’s the same as the current Trump “tariffs!” womanish soap opera… A LOT of people are going to get that wrong for the same reasons…
Looks like $NVDA GPUs have never been physically in Singapore ⚠️
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) June 29, 2024
So, according to $NVDA 10-Q disclosures “For example, most of the shipments associated with Singapore revenue went to either the United States or Taiwan in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025.”
Guess what..… https://t.co/n0Wr9IEz8M pic.twitter.com/plgg6ZdA7K
Monday, January 27, 2025
The Case of the Missing Report – Part 1 — Bill Mitchell
William Mitchell — Modern Monetary TheoryThis blog post is a long time in gestation and I could have written in 2009 which is the relevant year of the events that I will document in this two-part series. My conversations with government officials during my working trip to the Philippines last week highlighted several things, including their sheer terror of IMF intervention and the ratings agency. I will write separately about that in a later post. But the IMF watches these types of nations like a hawk and is ready to pounce to enforce their authority at the slightest departure from the neoliberal macroeconomic policy line. As long as these types of nations concede to the IMF bullying they have very little hope of developing towards being advanced states. And IMF bullying is what this blog post is about. This is Part 1 of a two-part story that might be summarised as the ‘Case of the Missing Report’. I will solve the mystery in Part 2, which will be published on Thursday of this week.
The Case of the Missing Report – Part 1
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
The Impact of 25% Tariffs on Canadian GDP—The Bank of Canada vs Deepseek — Stephanie Kelton
The Lens
The Impact of 25% Tariffs on Canadian GDP—The Bank of Canada vs Deepseek
Sunday, January 26, 2025
What is the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment Telling Us? — Stephanie Kelton
Expectations.
The LensWhat is the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment Telling Us?
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders
Source of funds for tariffs
This statement/tweet isn’t exclusively true:
MAGA will do whatever, but tariffs are taxes we pay on imports. It's time media outlets called them that. https://t.co/OZnlnS5YvU
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) January 26, 2025
the foreign entities can simply lower their import prices in USD terms and access these foreign USD account balances as source of USDs to pay any new tariffs:
A Framework for a Basic Bank — NeilW
In analysis, it’s helpful to simplify and focus on the core elements of a system. Today, we will identify the essential processes and structures required to create a functional bank, accompanied by diagrams to illustrate these key processes.
NeilW
Friday, January 24, 2025
Climate nutters useful idiots for insurance scammers
Can’t even make it up… moron intellectual degenerate Art degree climate nutters (who couldn’t tell you the atomic number of hydrogen) running interference for the insurance scammers…
California's insurance system is broken for a variety of reasons, but climate change is not one of them.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 25, 2025
There is no greater consumer scam underway than insurance industry trade groups blaming climate change for skyrocketing rates. The media is complicit, on the take. https://t.co/VN9RU7F7Oz