An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
Crisis or correction? That's the $64 dollar question. Actually a lot more at stake then $64 but that's how the saying goes.
My feeling is that there is going to be another leg down in the GFC, since the issues have not been addressed, on one hand, and on the other, the foundation is not in place for a sustained recovery.
But this could just be another correction instead of "the big one." However, if the issues are not addressed and a solid foundation laid instead of "extend and pretend," then the big one will be forthcoming.
Sell side this morning was on heavy volume. Buy side was on anemic volume. No way is this a buying opportunity for retail folks... yet. Good luck even getting an order filled .
Too bad Mike and Warren don't seem to be getting along anymore. I'd like to see another interview.
Warren's site closed to comments (after things got out of hand?). Emailing back and forth just doesn't drive the same exchanges as blogging. From 2003 -2007 Warren's site spelled out the play by play in advance with amazing clarity. He even called the breakdown in shadow banks though he called them nonbanks, I attribute my success to Warren.
I gave up on Mark Thoma's economistview a few years back after it was taken over by pgl.
Mike Norman Economics could fill the void, Tom (Rodger and Matt) do a great job keeping things interesting.
I think the main event this time or last time didn't have to be a Minsky moment, sure Steve Keen thinks it did but he was wrong about Australia for years.
About China and Minsky moments, letting Morgan Stanley get a foothold in China was their biggest mistake.
"In 2006, Morgan Stanley became the first foreign bank to own a wholly-owned commercial banking license in China, now called Morgan Stanley Bank International (China)." http://www.morganstanley.com/about-us/global-offices/china/ which doesn't even show up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_in_China
I see the big prize as the 2016 election.
Call me crazy. Seeing what certain political families are willing to do to global populations to "power up" i no longer see it as far fetched. Finance has been around for thousands of years, how it works is, thanks to this site and a few others, is available and these guys are not stupid (think Cheney with deficits don't matter).
Little push towards chaos by dropping the price of oil? Some might say its 'market forces', i doubt it.
Has the Bush family shown they have America's interest in mind? Jeb! 2016 what actions would they not take? http://crooksandliars.com/2015/04/how-jeb-bushs-pension-deals-enriched-his
I'd ike the actors described, this time the nonbanks may be involved through Morgan Stanley's infiltration of China?
Of the BRIC's, China and India have yet to make a real currency move. Are the Russians and Brazilians still buying U.S. real estate now that their currencies have plunged?
Have I tied it all together in a neat little narrative with oil prices falling to $20 this fall, sure, but where is Warren to set me straight this time?
6 comments:
This post on your site seems to lean in the other direction.
http://azizonomics.com/2015/08/24/correction-or-crisis/
Crisis or correction? That's the $64 dollar question. Actually a lot more at stake then $64 but that's how the saying goes.
My feeling is that there is going to be another leg down in the GFC, since the issues have not been addressed, on one hand, and on the other, the foundation is not in place for a sustained recovery.
But this could just be another correction instead of "the big one." However, if the issues are not addressed and a solid foundation laid instead of "extend and pretend," then the big one will be forthcoming.
Another post on your site that leans the other way.
http://www.ianwelsh.net/as-the-dow-jones-drops/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IanWelsh+%28Ian+Welsh%29
Thanks for posting all sides of the story.
From another post on your site, Steve Keen thinks this time is different in China:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevekeen/2015/08/24/china-crash-you-cant-keep-accelerating-forever/
Sell side this morning was on heavy volume. Buy side was on anemic volume. No way is this a buying opportunity for retail folks... yet. Good luck even getting an order filled .
Too bad Mike and Warren don't seem to be getting along anymore. I'd like to see another interview.
Warren's site closed to comments (after things got out of hand?). Emailing back and forth just doesn't drive the same exchanges as blogging. From 2003 -2007 Warren's site spelled out the play by play in advance with amazing clarity. He even called the breakdown in shadow banks though he called them nonbanks, I attribute my success to Warren.
I gave up on Mark Thoma's economistview a few years back after it was taken over by pgl.
Mike Norman Economics could fill the void, Tom (Rodger and Matt) do a great job keeping things interesting.
I think the main event this time or last time didn't have to be a Minsky moment, sure Steve Keen thinks it did but he was wrong about Australia for years.
About China and Minsky moments, letting Morgan Stanley get a foothold in China was their biggest mistake.
"In 2006, Morgan Stanley became the first foreign bank to own a wholly-owned commercial banking license in China, now called Morgan Stanley Bank International (China)."
http://www.morganstanley.com/about-us/global-offices/china/
which doesn't even show up
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_in_China
I see the big prize as the 2016 election.
Call me crazy. Seeing what certain political families are willing to do to global populations to "power up" i no longer see it as far fetched. Finance has been around for thousands of years, how it works is, thanks to this site and a few others, is available and these guys are not stupid (think Cheney with deficits don't matter).
Little push towards chaos by dropping the price of oil? Some might say its 'market forces', i doubt it.
Has the Bush family shown they have America's interest in mind? Jeb! 2016 what actions would they not take?
http://crooksandliars.com/2015/04/how-jeb-bushs-pension-deals-enriched-his
I'd ike the actors described, this time the nonbanks may be involved through Morgan Stanley's infiltration of China?
Of the BRIC's, China and India have yet to make a real currency move. Are the Russians and Brazilians still buying U.S. real estate now that their currencies have plunged?
Have I tied it all together in a neat little narrative with oil prices falling to $20 this fall, sure, but where is Warren to set me straight this time?
Recession before May 2016.
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