Thursday, January 28, 2021

Zero Hedge — China Tells Taiwan "Independence Means War" As Rival Wargames Ongoing

China's red line just got drawn redder.

This is probably the biggest risk:

Earlier this week Reuters observers painted a picture of each side flexing its muscles in a dangerous build-up which itself could trigger inadvertent war, given the number of aerial and naval assets potentially crisscrossing….

15 comments:

Peter Pan said...

So much for Xi's Davos speech. LOL

Ryan Harris said...

The KMT and DPP need to start campaigning for hearts and minds on the mainland. They should try to reunite China and make mainlandersnunderstans that superior leadership is ready and real alternatives to CCP exist and could transition peacefully as CCP voluntarily steps aside to allow for Harmony and Unity.

Matt Franko said...

They’d rather leave for the US than contest for leadership over there Ryan...

Everybody over there would rather live in the US... the whole thing over there is just a scam to get USDs....

Matt Franko said...

Xi’s daughter is at Harvard... the Huwawei daughter has a condo in Seattle area and was in US for medical treatment...

The whole thing is a scam...,

Their military would paratroop in grass cutters for $15 per lawn....

Tom Hickey said...

The KMT and DPP need to start campaigning for hearts and minds on the mainland. They should try to reunite China and make mainlandersnunderstans that superior leadership is ready and real alternatives to CCP exist and could transition peacefully as CCP voluntarily steps aside to allow for Harmony and Unity.

In the PRC, Taiwan is viewed as a colony of the US.

Nor is life in Taiwan a bed of roses for the whole population.

https://taiwaninsight.org/2018/12/21/economic-inequality-and-low-wages-in-taiwan/

Prior to its occupation by the KMT when they were driven out of the mainland, Taiwan had been a colony of Japan. Chiang Kai-shek was a client of the US. Generalissimo and President Chiang Kai-shek and Madame Chiang were famously corrupt.

Actually, there was a Taiwanese population there when the KMT retreated to Taiwan and took it over. The KMT repressed the Taiwanese minority.

Hong Kong, of course, was a British colony and never had democracy under British rule until the Brits decided to hand it back to China from whom they stole it. Then they poisoned the deal.

The people of the PRC are not as uniformed about the history.

Tom Hickey said...

They’d rather leave for the US than contest for leadership over there Ryan... Everybody over there would rather live in the US... the whole thing over there is just a scam to get USDs....

Mind-reading?

Matt Franko said...

Activity observing.......

Peter Pan said...

I'm not seeing Taiwanese entering the US.

Tom Hickey said...

Population of Taiwan is about 24 million. Population of PRC is over a billion.

Based on % of population rather than absolute number, there are relatively more immigrants from Taiwan than PRC.

Kaivey said...

I was arguing with people on twitter who were demanding that Taiwan should be allowed independence, so I put this out.

Texas Secession Movements

Current Supreme Court precedent, in Texas v. White, holds that the states cannot secede from the union by an act of the state, except through revolution or through the expressed consent of the other States.

Wikipedia


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements

Tom Hickey said...

Taiwan should be allowed independence

What does this even mean when the government of the People's Republic of China has declared Taiwan a part of the sovereign state, is willing to go to war over it, and has demonstrated this resolve.

The only relevance of "allow" is whether the PRC will allow it and they won't.

It is necessary to understand that China regards Taiwan, HK, Xinjiang and Tibet as strategically necessary and they will go to war over what they perceive as strategic necessity.

Red lines are not drawn arbitrarily. There are reasons.

The question is whether Taiwanese independence is worth going to war with nuclear-armed China over, or HK, or Tibet, or Xinjiang.

Peter Pan said...

Taiwan enjoys defacto independence, so why spill blood over it?

Tom Hickey said...

Taiwan enjoys defacto independence, so why spill blood over it?

Because "Taiwan independence" is another subterfuge in the overall grand strategy underlying US foreign policy based on unipolarism (global domination) through "full spectrum [military] dominance" and economic/financial dominance.

The Empire would prefer to do this through hybrid warfare but will resort to kinetic warfare as it deems necessary.

The danger is that US decision makers perceive the window of full-spectrum dominance closing owing to the rise of China and Russia militarily and their cooperation unless they act soon.

Trump's plan to do this through economic sanctions and decoupling is apparently off the table as ineffective and too damaging to US economic interests.

So the potential for kinetic war is rising.

Peter Pan said...

The people of Taiwan aren't interested in dying for the US empire. They can talk to Beijing and defuse the situation. It's not in China's interest to wage a pointless war.

Ryan Harris said...

The problem is that Taiwan has been too timid in re-expanding to the mainland. They have let the CCP paint them as lackeys of US when in fact, Taiwan is responsible for much of basic economic development and technological prowess China enjoys. Most of the CCP state run Enterprises have been spectacular failures while small private companies and JVs sponsored and run by Taiwan and others provide most ~2/3 of mainland employment and most of China's GDP. No one wants a big war besides CCP who fear that they will be stripped of wealth and prosecuted after they leave power, the key is enabling the leadership and people to understand that a peaceful transition will not entail their prosecution or taking away their wealth. Making sure CCP leaders know that the illicit billions they stashed around the world is also not going to be confiscated gives them a viable "out" of being cornered and opting for war and violence.