Sunday, September 19, 2021

A VACCINATION SIMPSON'S PARADOX

Isreal covid rates explained.


Why the vaccines are effective, and still are effective. You need to take age and the amount of people vaccinated into consideration. 

Anti-Vaxxers on social media are trying to say the vaccines don't work, or worst still, may even be a leading cause of death. As usual, these people don't care for science or research, just the headlines will do. 


There is 90% vaccination rate in Israel among older people. The vaccines are 90% to 95 % effective, but there are still breakthrough cases: 1 in 15 maybe approximately, and more in older people. 


This can mean that still a lot of old people getting hospitalised, even if they  have been vaccinated, but the vaccines would have held back many more serious infections. With so many old people vaccinated (90%), they can outnumber the unvaxxed in hospitals, but this never happens in Western states where vaccination rates are lower. Also, most infections would have been fairly mild, and according to the stats, vaccine efficacy is still high. 

In sub-Sahara Africa vaccination rates are low and so are covid deaths, but their average age is under 40 years old, and in some parts, the average age is 18 years old. Contrarians are looking at the data at face value and using this in their propaganda. 


  A VACCINATION SIMPSON'S PARADOX


Alberta reverses hands-off approach to Covid to tackle ‘crisis of unvaccinated’


Premier Jason Kennedy admits ‘we were wrong –and, for that, I apologize’ as he warns ICU beds may run out in 10 days


The Guardian 


Alberta reverses hands-off approach to Covid to tackle ‘crisis of unvaccinated’


6 comments:

Ryan Harris said...

Cases don't matter once the risks from cases are mitigated.

Hospitalized is concerning, it means damage not fully mitigated by vax BUT lot of hysteria. Scared people that probably don't need hospital getting hospitalized out of abundance of caution. Low risk illness and natural immunity prevents the next wave from becoming a pandemic. Should not be discouraged if the risk is lower than getting a vaccine jab.

Death from covid among vaccinated is ~ 1 in 137000 while vaccine causes 1 in 25000 to die, not being vaccinated has about 3-4x higher rate of death from covid for most age groups over 30.

Andrew Anderson said...

So 1 in 137000 / 4 = 1 in 34250 risk of a unvaccinated person over 30 dying of Covid vs 1 in 25,000 risk of being vaccinated?

Oops! It appears that unless one has comorbidities beyond being over 30, getting "vaccinated" with the current "vaccines" is for suckers.

Tom Hickey said...

@AA

Assumes likelihood of death is the only factor to consider. There are also long-term effects of having the disease, and at this stage we only know that they exist and persist in some people for an extended period. We won't know the details until longer term studies are done. If I were a younger person or the parent of a younger person, I would be taking this into account.

Of course, we don't know the longer term effects of the various vaccines either and there may be some based on initial evidence. So that is also a consideration.

Andrew Anderson said...

Except one has to survive the short term first.

Konrad said...

These are two sides of the political aisle right now:

Side 1: You are a bad person. I am going to stalk you and harass you, and scream how bad you are, because we are all going to die unless you get vaxxed, hide your face, and submit to medical tyranny.

Side 2: Please leave me alone.

Peter Pan said...

I'm on side 2, minus the please. Too late for pleasantries.