An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
The entire trailer is Stephanie Kelton. When was her book published? Has that changed anything? I don't want to be a cynic, but there are a lot of powerful people with too much to lose if MMT manages to change policy and the way we see things.
The other MMT'r Alan Longbon predicts a good year end. He's added various new things to his analysis taken from Robert and an another MMT'r Nick Gomez, of ANG Traders.
This is why a job guarantee policy, where a government agency is tasked with employing everyone who doesn’t have a job, is a central idea of the MMT school of thought. But for the life of me, I can’t see how the understanding of monetary operations would lead to that policy idea, rather than any other form of welfare system.
The job guarantee idea doesn’t get much of an airing in FtM. I think that’s fair enough. I’ve found it a very strange idea to get packaged with insights into monetary operations.
Damn. If I were Bill Mitchell, I'd light myself on fire out of frustration.
"But for the life of me, I can’t see how the understanding of monetary operations would lead to that policy idea, rather than any other form of welfare system."
A simple explanation for those of small brains.
Why can't you choose to go on unemployment benefit? Because if you could then the 'transition premium' (aka the 'get out of bed' premium) would be even larger between the unemployment payment and the lowest private sector wage that would attract a person away from the unemployment payment.
Same with a UBI. Nobody is going to give up their free time unless there is a significant 'get out of bed' premium on offer from the job market.
The 'transition premium' for the job guarantee is near zero. In fact the size of that premium or discount helps determine whether the job guarantee jobs are of the right calibre.
The existence of any 'transition premium' is a dead loss to the economy.
That's before we get to price anchor theory (purchasing on price, rather than on quantity).
Question: Can a film about modern monetary theory change our economic debates?
Historical footnote: Likely, yes. FDR succeeded as well as anyone ever in changing the debate. The bible of the late New Deal was the 1938 book, "An Economic Program for American Democracy" written by "Seven Harvard & Tufts Economists": Richard Gilbert, George Hildebrand Jr, Arthur Stuart, Maxine & Paul Sweezy, Lorie Tarshis & John D. Wilson.
FDR's chief econ adviser Lauchlin Currie attested that the boss achieved a solid, systematic grasp of Keynesian / MMT economics from that book, [well worth reading]. Number 2 son Elliott was hanging out in Hollywood at the time and FDR suggested he make a movie based on the book. Nothing came of it afaik, but the (odd) idea was there.
13 comments:
The entire trailer is Stephanie Kelton. When was her book published? Has that changed anything? I don't want to be a cynic, but there are a lot of powerful people with too much to lose if MMT manages to change policy and the way we see things.
There shouldn’t be an Art Degree “debate!” in the first place …
You can’t “run out!” of scientific abstractions…
Even the title use of the word “Finding!” helps to perpetuate this reification…
Or reify the perpetuation...
Could be quite a downward consolidation coming ( buying oppertunity)
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/910351-robert-p-balan/5990440-looking-for-trough-in-equities-10yr-yield-dxy-today-ny-close-basis-reinstating-long-equity
That would take us up to just about the April tax drain. So maybe a March and April down ward consolidation.
With the 6 Seasonal inflection points (they may vary a little from year to year):
Pivot #1 3rd week in Jan.
Pivot #2 mid March
Pivot #3 May 5th
Pivot #4 mid-June
Pivot #5 July 21st
Pivot #6 2-3 week in October
Probably let it do its thing and buy around pivot 4 mid June.
I'll be watching gold this year for the sell in May and walk away and see if it drops to around pivot 6 when it is supposed to start rising again.
With stocks we could be coming to the weakest time of the year before rising again to year end.
This is how the basic framework looked like every year since 2015 up until the pandemic that threw the spanners in the works.
But with 8 Seasonal inflection points.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/910351-robert-p-balan/5465685-burden-of-bullish-bearish-meme-unleash-total-power-of-compounding-and-large-numbers-laws
The other MMT'r Alan Longbon predicts a good year end. He's added various new things to his analysis taken from Robert and an another MMT'r Nick Gomez, of ANG Traders.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669292-us-financial-balances-fall-52-billion-pointing-to-worse-markets-february
All MMT'rs that look at this stuff seen to be On the same page.
Looks like everyone taking their tax refunds and buying Bitcoin…
Sounds like all MMT bearish into next 8 weeks…
Yup, sounds like it. Buy the dip time I guess.
Excerpt from Cameron Murray:
This is why a job guarantee policy, where a government agency is tasked with employing everyone who doesn’t have a job, is a central idea of the MMT school of thought. But for the life of me, I can’t see how the understanding of monetary operations would lead to that policy idea, rather than any other form of welfare system.
The job guarantee idea doesn’t get much of an airing in FtM. I think that’s fair enough. I’ve found it a very strange idea to get packaged with insights into monetary operations.
Damn. If I were Bill Mitchell, I'd light myself on fire out of frustration.
"But for the life of me, I can’t see how the understanding of monetary operations would lead to that policy idea, rather than any other form of welfare system."
A simple explanation for those of small brains.
Why can't you choose to go on unemployment benefit? Because if you could then the 'transition premium' (aka the 'get out of bed' premium) would be even larger between the unemployment payment and the lowest private sector wage that would attract a person away from the unemployment payment.
Same with a UBI. Nobody is going to give up their free time unless there is a significant 'get out of bed' premium on offer from the job market.
The 'transition premium' for the job guarantee is near zero. In fact the size of that premium or discount helps determine whether the job guarantee jobs are of the right calibre.
The existence of any 'transition premium' is a dead loss to the economy.
That's before we get to price anchor theory (purchasing on price, rather than on quantity).
Question: Can a film about modern monetary theory change our economic debates?
Historical footnote:
Likely, yes. FDR succeeded as well as anyone ever in changing the debate. The bible of the late New Deal was the 1938 book, "An Economic Program for American Democracy"
written by "Seven Harvard & Tufts Economists": Richard Gilbert, George Hildebrand Jr, Arthur Stuart, Maxine & Paul Sweezy, Lorie Tarshis & John D. Wilson.
FDR's chief econ adviser Lauchlin Currie attested that the boss achieved a solid, systematic grasp of Keynesian / MMT economics from that book, [well worth reading]. Number 2 son Elliott was hanging out in Hollywood at the time and FDR suggested he make a movie based on the book. Nothing came of it afaik, but the (odd) idea was there.
Question: What economic plan did opponents of the New Deal want to implement?
Thanks, Calgacus.
Here is a link
https://revivinggrowthkeynesianism.org/an-economic-program-for-american-democracy/
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