The Saker — About the latest Ukronazi provocation in the Kerch strait

Considering the current single-digit popularity rating of Poroshenko and the fact that he has no chance in hell to be re-elected (at least not in minimally credible elections) it is pretty darn obvious of why the Ukronazi regime in Kiev decided to trigger yet another crisis and then blame Russia for it. The very last thing Russia needs is yet another crisis, especially not before a possible Putin-Trump meeting at the G20 Buenos Aires summit later this month. In fact, Ukrainian bloggers immediately saw this latest provocation as an attempt to scrap upcoming elections.

So what’s next?...

The Vineyard of the Saker
About the latest Ukronazi provocation in the Kerch strait
The Saker

See also

Reminiscence of the Future
Poroshenko's Gambit.
Andrei Martyanov

Warsaw to Kiev — ‘You Won’t Get Into Europe Glorifying War Criminal Bandera’

Former Polish President Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the influential leader of the country’s ruling Law and Justice Party, has some frank advice for Kiev, telling Ukrainian officials that the country would never join Europe if it continued to try to build its national identity on the glorification of notorious Nazi-allied war criminals like Stepan Bandera.

In an interview for the news weekly magazine Do Rzeczy, excerpts from which were published by other Polish outlets on Monday, Kaczynski indicated that he had warned Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko that Kiev would have no place in Europe if it continued to indulge in the glorification of war criminals like Stepan Bandera, the leader of the WWII-era Ukrainian nationalist organization that collaborated with the Nazis.
Kaczynski said “for years now, we have disagreed with the construction in Ukraine of a cult to people who engaged in genocide against the Poles. They even surpassed the cruelty of the Germans, which was not easy to do.”

“In short, this is a matter of choice for Ukraine,” the politician emphasized. “I told President Poroshenko clearly that Ukraine wouldn’t be entering Europe with Bandera. For me this is an issue that is absolutely clear,” he added, “because we have demonstrated great patience. But this patience has its limits.”

A defining moment.

Defend Democracy
Warsaw to Kiev: ‘You Won’t Get Into Europe Glorifying War Criminal Bandera’

also

TASS
Russia’s Investigative Committee opens cases over rehabilitation of Nazism in Ukraine

Jafe Arnoldski — What languages do the Normandy Four speak together?

You were probably just dying to know this.

Fort Russ
What languages do the Normandy Four speak together?
Jafe Arnoldski

J. Flores with R. Quintanilla — Putin throws down the gauntlet - takes aim at US, calls Poroshenko ''puppet" [+Video]

The US also may have timed the provocation itself, perhaps to escalate tensions with Russia in the run-up to the elections. It would perhaps bode poorly for Trump if a heated or even hot exchange with Russia made Ukraine a major focus, and was the focus of media during an election where clearly Clinton is favored among imperialists and hawks. 

This would certainly distract from the US failures to topple the government in Syria, and would also detract from Russia's successes against terrorist groups there, which the US (despite their actual aims at arming said terrorists) has apparently 'failed' to make any traction against.…

You heard this here first.

Fort Russ
Putin throws down the gauntlet - takes aim at US, calls Poroshenko ''puppet" [+Video]

J. Flores with R. Quintanilla

Since Trump is designated as Putin’s American agent, then playing the “Ukraine card” is a logical assumption for an “October Surprise.” The Trump campaign is wary of sending more military assistance to Ukraine – remember Ukraine is not a member of NATO and the situation in Ukraine in no way threatens America’s security, nor that of Europe’s. But in the world politics facts hardly get in the way of personal ambitions. Poroshenko and his government have been waging a low-level war of skirmishes and cross border attacks on Crimea and the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. The American public is already well conditioned to accept all of this is Russia’s fault. What is now needed and is probably being planned is a manufactured incident to make it look like Russia attacked and invaded Ukraine. The American public will be rallied with the usual mantra “something must be done” and the Trump campaign will be left flat footed, red faced, and denounced. Joe McCarthy will smile with glee from the grave.

Sounds like fiction? If it does, then you simply have not been paying attention – this is how Washington thinks and works.…

The Duran
Peter Lavelle: Donald, Hillary and Vlad – is Ukraine the “October Surprise?”

Peter Lavelle

Alexander Mercouris takes an opposing position.

As for Ukraine, though there are undoubtedly individuals there who are fully capable of starting a war and who show every indication of wanting to do so, I personally doubt that in the end Ukraine will take the plunge and go to war. Behind the ritual statements of support I expect both the US and the Europeans in private to be urging Ukraine to show restraint for two reasons: firstly, because whatever they may pretend in public I am sure they have guessed the truth that it is the Russian account of the Crimean incident which is true; and secondly and far more importantly because they know that in any war between Ukraine and Russia – or even between Ukraine and the two People’s Republics of the Donbass – Ukraine would lose.

Obama certainly does not want another defeat in Ukraine in the middle of a US Presidential election campaign on his hands, especially since this would probably play into the hands of Donald Trump, though unfortunately the same cannot be said of some of the more psychopathic individuals who support Hillary Clinton, who seem to be yearning for confrontation with Russia on just about any pretext. More to the point I just cannot imagine that Angela Merkel, facing criticism in Germany for her open-door refugee policy and with her anti-Russian policy coming under growing criticism from the SPD, the CSU and the German business community, wants another debacle in Ukraine on her hands.

In fact I suspect that some people both in the US and Europe are privately furious with the Ukrainians for landing them in this mess, whatever they may feel obliged to say in public. Whether or ot that is so I expect that the telephone lines between Western capitals and Kiev are currently burning with urgent calls for restraint. Despite the strength of the war party in Kiev I doubt that the Ukrainian authorities in the end feel strong enough to disregard these calls.

The Duran
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko preparing to attack Donbass and Crimea
Alexander Mercouris

Eduard Popov — Poroshenko Calls to Ignore the Outcome of the UK Referendum

Supporting the idea of a Brexit in the UK referendum became an information bomb for Petro Poroshenko, who came to power under the slogan of Ukraine joining the EU. London was seen as one the main lobbyists of Ukrainian interests in the EU. Another lobbyist, Poland, is not such a powerful foreign policy player as the UK. Another reason for the frustration is the blow struck to the attractiveness of the European Union. Until now, European countries have sought to enter the Union and not come back. Therefore, the decision of the British people expressed in the referendum is perhaps the strongest foreign policy defeat of the Poroshenko regime.

The aim of the information policy of the Ukrainian authorities is to turn defeat and failure into victory and success. In this case, representatives of the Ukrainian authorities tried to convince the citizens that nothing bad had happened. The first to speak on this subject was President Poroshenko on his Facebook page: "I believe that, despite the results of the referendum, the UK remains in the European Union and will defend common European values." Attempts to justify it were very awkward. Poroshenko, in fact, urged all to ignore the outcome of the referendum — such were the meaning of his statement. For democratic politics, especially the leader of a European country, the call to ignore the results of a referendum is just blasphemous. Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Paruby similarly, but more cautiously, expressed this. He said that the UK will remain a key partner of Ukraine, despite the results of the referendum on a withdrawal from the EU. Probably Paruby considered Poroshenko's actions to be a blunder and did not call to ignore the outcome of the referendum.…

In denial.

Fort Russ
Poroshenko Calls to Ignore the Outcome of the UK ReferendumEduard Popov
Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ

Alexander Mercouris — Poroshenko Finally Admits Ukraine’s Military Defeat

Though it has received almost no international attention, Ukraine’s President Poroshenko finally admitted on Friday 21st May 2016 a truth many Ukrainians still cannot face: Ukraine cannot regain control of the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics by military means.

Poroshenko’s admission was made at a meeting of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council – in effect to Ukraine’s military leadership. That means that what Poroshenko said was not a slip or a pose but a genuine admission made to the commanders of the Ukrainian military who have been fighting its war.

This admission comes two years after Ukraine launched its so-called “Anti-Terrorist Operation” to crush opposition in the Donbass.

It also comes just short of two years after Ukraine launched a military offensive to regain the Donbass on 30th June 2014.…

No mystery there. Russia has said that it would not allow Donbass to be defeated militarily and the the only solution is fulfilling the Minsk Agreement, which Ukraine signed on to but has been resisting since.

The problem now is that the Western Ukrainian neo-Nazis have promised a revolution to replace the sitting government unless the war is prosecuted and won.

They don't have much of chance though without the backing of the US, and that is highly unlikely. Ukraine is becoming a basket case and the US now wants this to be over.

The Duran
Poroshenko Finally Admits Ukraine’s Military Defeat

Alexander Mercouris

See also

Fort Russ

New Maidan Predicted in Ukraine: It Will Be Short and Bloody
Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ
Antifashist

Semen Doroshenko — Confirmed: Joe Biden extensively "counsels" Poroshenko; his visits mean Donbass escalation

Obama's emissary to his Ukrainian vassal.

Fort Russ
Confirmed: Joe Biden extensively "counsels" Poroshenko; his visits mean Donbass escalation

Semen Doroshenko, PolitNavigator -
Translated for Fort Russ by J. Arnoldski

Alexrpt — After meeting in Berlin with Merkel and Hollande, Poroshenko appear to have backed down from restarting the war in Donbass

Some good news, sort of.

Red Pill Times
After meeting in Berlin with Merkel and Hollande, Poroshenko appear to have backed down from restarting the war in Donbass

Alexrpt

Novorossia.su — Source: Poroshenko is planning an operation to destroy DPR and LPR with NATO support

This is a bold move if there is anything to it.

Fort Russ
Source: Poroshenko is planning an operation to destroy DPR and LPR with NATO support

Novorossia.su
Translated for Fort Russ by J. Arnoldski

A different take.

Indian Punchline
Kissinger: Obama is prudent but more ideological than strategic
M K Bhadrakumar, retired Indian ambassador and foreign service officer

F. William Engdahl — An American Oligarch‘s Dirty Tale of Corruption

Soros is actually worse than you thought. turns out he is a specialist in disaster capitalism — because freedom — and, conveniently, lots of loot in his pockets. He is one the masterminds behind the privatization of the Ukraine on the same playbook that was used in Russia, spawning the Russian mafia and oligarchy, but making many Western "investors" much richer. But you knew that already.

New Eastern Outlook
An American Oligarch‘s Dirty Tale of Corruption

F. William Engdahl

Anton Linnik — Kolomoysky is holding Ukraine by its “Privat” parts

"Privat" is the largest private bank in Ukraine. It is controlled by Igor Kolomoysky.

I guess Kolomoysky has learned something from the TBTF–TBTJs.

Fort Russ
Kolomoysky is holding Ukraine by its “Privat” parts

Anton Linnik
Translated by J. Hawk

Original — Kolomoysky is holding Ukraine by its “Privat” parts

Also

Red Pill Times
The US is poised to back Poroshenko as he takes on Kolomoiskii in a battle royal to rule Ukraine

Alexrpt

Alexrpt — Kolomoysky calls for federalisation of Ukraine. Ukrnafta building in Kiev seized by Dnepr-1 battalion. US Ambassador Pyatt warns Kolomoysky

Oligarch tussle in Kiev.

Moreover, just recently US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Pyatt lectured Kolomoysky on the unacceptability of “jungle law” approaches to political problems (funny how that was not a problem during the Maidan, eh?), a warning which Kolomoysky clearly ignored.

Most interesting:

Kolomoysky called for recognizing DPR and LPR as the de-facto authorities in Eastern Ukraine, in an apparent bid to prevent a two-front war against both Kiev and Novorossia. At the same time, Kolomoysky called for “financial federalization” of Ukraine, under which 90% of tax revenue would never leave the regions.

Things hotting up in Kiev.

Are we heading for a final Oligarch showdown between Kolomoysky and Poroshenko?

Red Pill Times
Kolomoysky calls for federalisation of Ukraine. Ukrnafta building in Kiev seized by Dnepr-1 battalion. US Ambassador Pyatt warns Kolomoysky
Alexrpt

Alexander Mercouris — Minsk Peace Deal for Ukraine is Falling Apart

Merkel's weakness is making the failure of Minsk 2.0 inevitable. Feeling no western pressure Kiev is unwilling to make the political concessions necessary for its implementation.

Mercouri chiefly faults Merkel for not pressuring the Poroshenko government to implement the conditions agreed to at Minsk 2. But I would say that there are many other factors contributing to the impasse. However, I would agree that Merkel should have known that the agreement would not work when Poroshenko denied the existence of a cauldron at Debaltsevo.

At that point, the agreement was grasping at straws unless she was willing to pressure Poroshenko to keep his part of the bargain. given that Ukraine has the backing of Western funding and the US and UK are encouraging a military solution, there was almost no possibility that Merkel's project could succeed. Now it is dead in the water.

It is difficult to see these as the actions of a strong leader determinedly carrying out a policy. Rather they suggest a weak leader concerned about her popularity and unwilling to take risks. Whatever Merkel’s skills as a leader who looks for and achieves consensus within Germany, the Ukrainian crisis has found her wanting and seriously out of her depth. This crisis calls for a strong and self-confident leader, which as it turns out Merkel is not, showing that the strength people tend to attribute to her is really Germany’s strength rather than hers. 

Unsurprisingly therefore Merkel's behaviour since Ukraine has failed to carry out the political commitments it took on itself through Minsk 2.0 has been the same as it was when Ukraine failed to carry out its commitments under Minsk 1.0.... 

Russia Insider

Minsk Peace Deal for Ukraine is Falling Apart
Alexander Mercouris

If there was any doubt:

On Wednesday, March 18th, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Prime Minister of Ukraine .... told his cabinet meeting, “Our goal is to regain control of Donetsk and Lugansk.” Those are the two districts comprising Donbass, the self-proclaimed independent region of Ukraine, which now calls itself “The People’s Republic“ and sometimes “Novorossiya,” and which rejects the coup and its coup-imposed Government.... 

Yatsenyuk announced there: “Adequate financial resources are available,” to retake Donbass. Those “resources” came largely from the IMF, and from the United States, all with loans to the bankrupt Ukrainian Government...

Yatsenyuk told his cabinet that, “We will fight using all methods and techniques for the resumption of peace and regaining control of Donetsk and Luhansk region.” By ‘resumption of peace,’ he meant resumption of control over Donbass....

On March 17th, Ukraine’s parliament, the Rada, voted to declare Donbass to be “temporarily occupied territory,” until the residents there are conquered....

Washington's Blog
Ukraine Declares Resumption of War Against Donbass (March 18, 2015)
Eric Zuesse

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten — Confirmed by Kiev: Ukrainian Land Being Transferred to Oligarchs and Seed Companies

Just like Michael Hudson has been saying from the get-go.

This was the plan all along and when the previous government got in the way of it, it was replaced by coup. Perhaps worst was the willingness to use neo-Nazi nationalists to conduct the coup and to cut them in on the deal.

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten via Russia Insider

Confirmed by Kiev: Ukrainian Land Being Transferred to Oligarchs and Seed Companies

Translated by Anita Zalaldinova

If you read German, Kredite aus Steuergeldern: Saatgut-Konzerne kaufen Land in der Ukraine

Moon of Alabama— U.S. Pushes For Escalation, Arms Kiev By Laundering Weapons Through Abu Dhabi

The United Arab Emirates is not known as arms producer. But it buys lots of U.S. weapons. It will now forward those to Ukraine while the U.S. will claim that it does not arm Ukraine. Who do they think will believe them?

Moon of Alabama
U.S. Pushes For Escalation, Arms Kiev By Laundering Weapons Through Abu Dhabi

Ukrainian companies signed several contracts worth tens of millions of dollars, funding the acceleration of its military's modernization, Poroshenko later said in a news release.

Defense News
Ukraine Signs Defense Deal With UAE

ht Chuck Spinney at The Blaster

The advisor to the head of the MIA of Ukraine, member of Verkhovnaya Rada Anton Gerashenko wrote about this in his page on Facebook
According to him, the agreements were achieved during the meeting between the Ukrainian leader and the deputy supreme commander of the UAE Armed Forces, the Crown Prince of the Abu Dhabi emirate Mohammed al-Nahayan. The negotiations occurred in the capital of the Arab state, where Poroshenko came to participate in the international weapon show IDEX-2015.
Gerashenko noted, that volumes of the shipments and types of weapons that is planned to be imported are not subject to disclosure.
«Arabs, unlike europeans and americans, are not afraid of Putin's threats of unleashing a third world war in the case of shipping weapons and materiel to Ukraine. Apparently, they have their own issues with Putin due to the decrease of oil prices by almost a factor of two and the worldwide instability, which impedes long-term development of the UAE. So this will be their small revenge», — wrote the advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs.

Colonel Cassad
Weapon shipments from the UAE to Ukraine

Interfax-Ukraine — Poroshenko pledges to return Crimea to Ukraine

Putin has pledged the same about Russia. Collision course.

Interfax-Ukraine — Ukraine News Agency
Poroshenko pledges to return Crimea to Ukraine

Der Spiegel — German Intelligence: Ukraine Army Disintegrating — While social unrest is brewing in the rear

Not just the military that is disintegrating. And this is from Der Spiegel, which tends to be hawkish in its reporting on the situation in Ukraine.

Frustration among the public at large is growing with some in Kiev even talking about a "new Maidan," a reference to the protests that drove Yanukovych out of office (and out of the country) one year ago. 

"If nothing changes in Ukraine, then everything will explode in four to six months," says Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia and supporter of the new Kiev leadership. 

Aid from the International Monetary Fund and other donors is aimed at preventing such an explosion from taking place. In the next four years, Ukraine is to receive around €40 billion euros -- but the program includes "extremely strict conditions," say senior Berlin officials with concern. Among them is an increase in gas prices for private consumers as well as an unpopular pension reform aimed at cutting government spending. 

Berlin is worried that support for the government could rapidly disappear should too much be demanded too quickly. Chancellor Merkel has thus charged her economic policy advisor Lars-Hendrik Röller with encouraging the IMF to exercise political caution. "The aid program cannot be allowed to destabilize Ukraine domestically," said one government official in Berlin.

Russia Insider
German Intelligence: Ukraine Army Disintegrating — While social unrest is brewing in the rear
Der Spiegel - Excerpt

Also

This is a much more detailed account of Minsk than I have seen elsewhere. It seems that while the Merkel and Putin knew the state of the Debaltsevo cauldron, Poroshenko had not been informed by his military leadership, as observers had previously suspected to be the case based on his statements. Good summary of a mainstream German viewpoint.

Der Spiegel
The War Next Door: Can Merkel's Diplomacy Save Europe?
Spiegel Staff — Nikolaus Blome, Matthias Gebauer, Christiane Hoffmann, Dirk Kurbjuweit, Christian Neef, René Pfister, Matthias Schepp, Christoph Schult and Holger Stark

Also

This is the kettle or cauldron in which the separatist trapped a salient of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It's a complete disaster for the UAF, just like previous kettling operations by the NAF in response to UAF salients.

Fort Russ
Ukrainian General Staff Confirms Debaltsevo Force Collapse

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

J.Hawk’s Comment: So it’s coming to an end. It’s only a matter of how many troops make it out alive. But the loss of equipment, combined with earlier losses here and everywhere, put into question the UAF’s ability to conduct large-scale operations for a long time to come. The days of “Victory” have come to an end. The days of “Treason” are only beginning… Poroshenko and others were able to avoid reckoning for the earlier Ilovaysk debacle apparently only by promising a rematch. They seem to have lost that one too, and Round 3 does not seem in the cards. But Round 2 is the only thing kept all the different factions of the very fragile "pro-European" junta together.

Alexander Zakharchenko, the Novorossiyan leader was slightly wounded by shrapnel in the leg.

Zakharchenko's final warning to Poroshenko

Aleksandr Zakharchenko on Minsk-2

“I said in Minsk and am saying right now that the DPR territory includes the entire Donetsk Region. If our demands for a de-facto independence are not met, we shall claim the entire Donetsk Region. How we will obtain it does not matter to us. If we can’t do it through the political process, we have already shown that we can do it through other means.”

Zakharchenko's final warning to Poroshenko

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Why "Ukraine peace" is an oxymoron.

Why the Ukraine can not be put back together again in the foreseeable future.

The following is a remarkable article published in the Financial Times. It is remarkable for two reasons. One, the Times is a conservative, staid newspaper. But two, the newspaper makes two acknowledgements that the near-entirety of Western mainstream media cannot bring itself to report—that the armed forces of the Kyiv governing regime have been ruthlessly shelling and attacking the people of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics for the past six months, and two, the people do not like this and have turned against the ‘Ukraine’ that Kyiv represents. A revelation! It is truly remarkable that such simple reporting of facts in this war becomes something so noteworthy and, well, remarkable.

The New Cold War
School lessons and shelling forge new identity in eastern Ukraine

Courtney Weaver, Financial Times

And now this just in:

Donetsk is subjected to the most powerful attack in the entire war for independence of Donbass.

The city is shaking from explosions and is under fire from exploding ammunition of Ukrainian terrorists. Emergency vehicles are rushing through the streets…

"I have a feeling as if all the "fascist dogs" got a command to attack", - reports from the scene our military correspondent. "Many Donetsk residents, who are not easily scared anymore, doubt they will survive this night and are saying goodbye to loved ones."

It is hard to imagine how many will be wounded and killed in the fire of hell, organized by the Ukrainian army.

P. S. Simultaneously with frenzied bombardment of cities of Donbass, Poroshenko is putting on a show - now live from the General staff issuing an order for ceasefire. First, in Ukrainian, then in English - for TV picture.

Fort Russ
Poroshenko goes out with a bang for Valentines day
Dima Pitersky, Rusvesna
Translated by Kristina Rus

In both the conflict between the eurocrats and Syriza, and also the parties to the Minsk agreement, the leaders have to look like they are seriously trying in good faith for a resolution, but the facts belie resolution.

Fort Russ — Update on Ukraine

The bias is toward the Ukrainian separatist and Russian side, but most of the factual reporting is not available in the Western media.

************

Ceasefire used to upgrade forces and repair damage, just as the separatists claimed.

Fort Russ
Poroshenko reveals the true nature of ceasefire for Ukraine [Video with English subs]
Kristina Rus

*************

At the meeting we decided that there will be no ceasefire with Russian occupants and terrorists. We will wage the war until a victorious liberation of all Ukrainian lands from Moscow freaks. — From Yarosh's Facebook page. Not exactly being subtle about it.

Right Sector leader Dmitry Yarosh creates "Parallel" Armed Forces of Ukraine
Translation of Yarosh's Facebook page

**************

Exploration of the Western and Russian mindsets by a Russian educated at Brown University and LSE, now in Athens. I can'f vouch for his description of the Russian mindset other than by comparing it with readings, but his description of the Western liberal mindset is pretty accurate in my view. He, too, is concerned with this spinning out of control.

The Battle of Wills between the West and Russia: Which Side Will Win?

Joshua Tartakovsky

***************

Putin Wins, Obama Loses, in Draft Plan for Ukraine

Eric Zeusse