Paul Robinson — Drifting towards authoritarianism, or not

Russian liberals manufacture fake news, and it reverbs through the echo chamber in the West.

Irrussianality
Drifting towards authoritarianism, or not
Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

Sputnik International — Nooscope: Media Concocts Conspiracy Theory About Putin’s New Mind Melting Weapon

The academic article in question was co-authored by "A. K. Vaino." Putin's new Chief of Presidential Administration is Anton Eduardovitš Vaino (Антон Эдуардович Вайно).

Put away the fainting salts.

Sputnik International
Nooscope: Media Concocts Conspiracy Theory About Putin’s New Mind Melting Weapon

Nathaniel Habibullin — Sergei Ivanov: a loyal, but not a very effective manager

Only important if you are following Russian affairs.

But, of course, the change is not just about age and loyalty. It is also about effectiveness.

Vaino, who speaks English and Japanese and who had experience of successful diplomatic work, is obviously better qualified to sustain Western pressure than Ivanov, whose statements on foreign policy are usually just bland summaries of Putin’s similar, but much more eloquent and artistic diatribes on world affairs (eg. “Do you realise what you have done?!” – on Western politicians’ actions in the Middle East)….

The Duran
Sergei Ivanov: a loyal, but not a very effective manager
Nathaniel Habibullin

Alexander Mercouris — In shock August reshuffle, Vladimir Putin replaces his Chief of Staff

People tend to read things into changes in the Kremlin pecking order with respect to who's in and who's out.

I think this is a misread in the current context of power shifts that Putin has been making.

Alexander Mercouris speculates on this.

There may be a possible hint in Putin’s comment as to the real reason for this step. He is reported to have said to Vano (Ivanov’s successor) that he would “like to see as little bureaucracy as possible and a more hands-on approach to solving everyday problems faced by the Executive Office, as well as in the key areas of economic development and social issues.” There have been constant rumours going back to Ivanov’s time as Defence Minister that he is not a good manager, and in these words there may be a hint that this is the real reason he has just been removed from a post where management skills are essential.

My read is that Putin is moving away from loyalty as a chief factor in selection and embracing competent managers that have demonstrated their skill.

Moreover, Ivanov is not exactly being "dismissed." He remains on the security council.

Putin is indeed tightening the reins, but by replacing "his people" with good managers.

The Duran
In shock August reshuffle, Vladimir Putin replaces his Chief of Staff

Alexander Mercouris

John Helmer — HELLO RAPALLO! THE INEVITABILITY OF THE NEW GERMAN TREATY ON ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH RUSSIA

Secret negotiations have been under way for some time between high German and Russian officials, to which Chancellor Angela Merkel has been excluded. Warned by US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, and in a recent coded communication from outgoing President Barack Obama that she must act to save her authority, and enforce European Union sanctions against Russia, Merkel has also received an ultimatum from her cabinet and party. This was delivered in the form of a page torn out of an Old German bible in which a large black spot had been inked. Either she step aside in secret, Merkel understood the signal, or she will be forced to resign in public.

For more details of the meaning of the Black Spot, read this.

Hilarious. This is based on leaks, but Helmer is well-positioned in this regard. If true, the house of cards is collapsing unless the US tightens down the screws. But the outcome of US screw tightening would be uncertain, it seems.

The rumblings out of Deutschland recently give credence to this. German business has not been aboard with US sanctions for some time, and now the German foreign policy establishment is also balking at ratcheting up hostilities with Russia.

First Cameron, now Merkel? Her political popularity, hence political capital, has been sinking and even her own party is concerned with the direction she has been setting.

Dances with Bears
HELLO RAPALLO! THE INEVITABILITY OF THE NEW GERMAN TREATY ON ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH RUSSIA
John Helmer

See also

THE BRITISH VOTE ISN’T AGAINST EUROPE – IT’S AGAINST THE WARS OF BARACK OBAMA, ANGELA MERKEL, AND EVERY SERIOUS NEWSPAPER IN THE WORLD AS WE USED TO KNOW IT

Sergey Ivanov: “Such matters require silence, not PR.” — Interview with Sergey Ivanov published by Vesti.ru

Sergey Ivanov is second only to Vladimir Putin.

SouthFront
Sergey Ivanov: “Such matters require silence, not PR.”

Interview with Sergey Ivanov published by Vesti.ru, translation by J.Hawk

Alexander Mercouris — Putin's Chief of Staff Is a Man to Watch

Triumphant success organising Victory Day celebrations points to growing influence of Sergei Ivanov

Good backgrounder on Sergei Ivanov.

Russia Insider
Putin's Chief of Staff Is a Man to Watch

Alexander Mercouris

Russia Beyond the Headlines — Putin confesses he expected radical upturn in relations with West after fall of the Communist regime

Putin and the then U.S. president George Bush had "an excellent relationship," Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Ivanov recalled.

However, the U.S. came to believe by that moment that Russia "entered a regime of colonial democracy, that we sort of got hooked on International Monetary Fund injections and that the experts' community must continue teaching us how we should further develop our economy and where we should pump our oil," he said.

"On the surface, though, everything looked extremely tactful: they would pat us on the shoulder and cheer us up: guys, your are sort of moving in the rights direction," Ivanov said.

Russia Beyond the Headlines
Putin confesses he expected radical upturn in relations with West after fall of the Communist regime

"Someone else could be Russia's president in 2018"--Putin

J.Hawk’s Comment: It does seem likely that Putin will go into retirement in the next few years—at any rate, it’s hard to imagine him as president at the age of 70. Besides, his place in history books is secure, and it’s unlikely that Russian government policies would change much after his departure. He is not the “tyrannical ruler” of Western propaganda but, quite simply, the chief executive of the Russian state. That’s what he was picked to do, and that’s what he did well.
The only question is of succession. It will almost certainly be a member of the “nobility of the sword”, or Russia’s national security apparatus. The business side of the government, the “nobility of the cloth”, has not performed as well, and its representatives (most notably—Medvedev) can’t hold a candle to the popularity of the “chekists.”

So, who’s Russia’s next president? My educated guess is that it will come down to a choice between Sergey Ivanov and Sergey Shoygu. They combine modesty, competence, and the ability to pursue the balanced internal and foreign policy that characterized Russia during Putin’s tenure as President and/or Prime Minister.

Fort Russ
"Someone else could be Russia's president in 2018"--Putin
Translated by J. Hawk

Original — Putin said that in someone else could be the President ofthe Russian Federation in 2018

John Helmer — The Oligarchs To Lead Russia A Dance In 2015 – Choosing Your Partners When You Are At War

Machinations in Russia. Alexei Kudrin is the person to watch.

Alexei Kudrin, the former finance minister (right), started by criticizing Putin and Nabiullina last week for their timing on managing the rouble crisis. For Kudrin’s tweets, click. This week Kudrin has announced through the Financial Times that Putin is obliged to choose between capitulation in eastern Ukraine and capitulation on the home front. 

“As for what the president and government must do now,” Kudrin declared, “the most important factor is the normalisation of Russia’s relations with its business partners, above all in Europe, the US and other countries.” Kudrin claimed to the newspaper that 40% of the rouble depreciation is due to the sanctions war. 

Kudrin announced his candidacy for prime minister in Washington in September of 2011, before he was fired; Putin said at the time that Kudrin had suffered abreakdown. This time Kudrin’s candidacy to run Russia is sponsored from London, as he places himself at the head of what the Kremlin faction of security officials is calling the Fifth Column. The security faction is led by chief of staff Sergei Ivanov; it is represented in public by the Novorussian commander Igor Strelkov. Read more. 

Look back at the table setting — at Friday’s meeting with the oligarchs, Ivanov was in first place on Putin’s right.

Dances with Bears

The Oligarchs To Lead Russia A Dance In 2015 – Choosing Your Partners When You Are At War

John Helmer