Showing posts with label geostrategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label geostrategy. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

US primes NATO to confront Russia, China — M. K. Bhadrakumar

More importantly, the trend at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting at Brussels on November 19-20, in the run-up to the London summit, showed that despite growing differences within the alliance, member states closed ranks around three priority items in the US global agenda — escalation of the aggressive policy toward Russia, militarisation of space and countering China’s rise....
The only sure way to ensure permanent US hegemony is to break Russia and China into smaller countries that can be controlled and to prevent alliances of smaller countries that could challenge US hegemony by competing militarily or economically. US policy elites have known this for at least a century and the British policy elites knew this at least a century before that. Prepare for another Cold War and hope it never goes hot.
With NATO set up by Washington for a confrontationist posture, Russia and China won’t let their guard down. Addressing a meeting of the Russian Federation Security Council on November 22, Putin said, “There are many uncertainty factors… competition and rivalry are growing stringer and morphing into new forms… The leading countries are actively developing their offensive weapons… the so-called ‘nuclear club’ is receiving new members. We are also seriously concerned about the NATO infrastructure approaching our borders, as well as the attempts to militarise outer space.”

Putin stressed, “In these conditions, it is important to make adequate and accurate forecasts, analyse the possible changes in the global situation, and to use the forecasts and conclusions to develop our military potential.”...
India Punchline
US primes NATO to confront Russia, China
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service

See also

The majority of Americans support liberal interventionism/neoconservatism in this survey.
Similarly, when asked about the efficacy of maintaining U.S. military bases overseas compared to reducing our foreign presence, Americans opt for maintaining bases by a 65% to 28% margin. Opinions on base-maintenance varies by gender (men +44 maintain versus reduce, women +30), age (under 30 years of age +18, over 65 +44), education (non-college +28, college +43), and region (East +50, MidWest +35, South +32). Perhaps surprisingly, veteran status has almost no effect on attitudes towards maintaining foreign bases. Race and ethnic differences also fail to predict these opinions.  
This general support for engagement includes a willingness to use U.S. military forces, even when there is no direct threat to the U.S. By a 55-point margin—76% support, 22% do not support—Americans support using U.S. military forces to prevent human rights violations in other countries. By the same 55-point margin—again, 76% support, 22% do not support—they favor using U.S. military forces to defend freedom in other countries. 
If the U.S. is directly threatened, the percent supporting a possible military response goes even higher: by a 75-point margin—87% support, 11% do not support—Americans support using U.S. military forces to eliminate potential threats to the U.S. before they strike. When it comes to these particular engagement questions, there are few significant sub-group differences. For example, 74% of men support using the U.S. military to prevent human rights violations; 78% of women feel likewise. Seventy-five percent of non-college people support, 77% of college grads support. Eighty percent of people in the East support, compared to 75% of people in the West. There is a partisan difference, as 84% of Democrats support whereas only 68% of Republicans support. There is also a slight age difference: among those under 30, 77% support; among those over 65, 65% support. But these differences should not obscure the dominance of pro-engagement attitudes....
Beacon Research
Results from the 2019 Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute National Defense Survey

Friday, August 30, 2019

Two Systems, One World — Joschka Fischer

Like the twentieth-century Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the new rivalry between China and the West is a contest between fundamentally incompatible political systems. And the idea that freedom and democracy will prevail can no longer be taken for granted.…
While this is an interesting read, I don't think he frames it quite right. Alexander Dugin has pointed out that there are three modern political theories, liberalism, communism, and fascism, and one ancient one, traditionalism. Communism and fascism are now visible only as remnants and the major dialectical opposition presently is that between liberalism and traditionalism. This is the case not only internationally and regionally, but also within countries, e.g., as "traditional values," religious traditions, and cultural traditions and customs.

Joschka Fischer is also mistaken in claiming that Enlightenment liberalism was founded on the principle of freedom based on all men being equal. History contradicts that. The actual meaning was "all white males that owned property" rather than all human beings. Current events reveal that this has not changed all that much, only the narrative and façade.

Let's be real and call a spade a spade. Confucius was big on rectification of names.

Project Syndicate
Two Systems, One World
Joschka Fischer | German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005

Sunday, August 18, 2019

All along the watchtower: The follies of history —Pepe Escobar

Everything that happens geopolitically and geoeconomically in our turbulent times has to do with the US’ do-or-die imperial struggle against the Russia-China strategic partnership. Only total “victory,” by any means necessary, would assure the continuation of what could be defined as the New American Century.
And that brings us to the necessity of reconstructing Clausewitz’s axiom, according to which, originally, war is a continuation of politics by other means.
Clausewitz argued that war is a real political instrument. Now, Clausewitz remixed should read: Hybrid War is Politics by Other Means....

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Attack on Iran would be an attack on Russia — Pepe Escobar

Russia is meticulously advancing Eurasian chessboard moves that should be observed in conjunction, as Moscow proposes to the Global South an approach diametrically opposed to Western sanctions, threats and economic war. Here are three recent examples....
Asia Times
Attack on Iran would be an attack on Russia
Pepe Escobar

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Russia — Dmitri Trenin


This is a reasonably good assessment of Russia in terms of what it is now, it's past and it's forward trajectory.

The one matter with which I would strongly disagree is Tenin view that Russia will never be a super-power again. Russia is a super-power now. It is the only country with the means to counter the US militarily. Although China is rising quickly, it likely won't become a superpower in a decade or two. But a strategic alliance between Russia and China would defang NATO's ability to project power into the Eurasian region they dominate. 

Neither Russia nor China have strong offensive capability and therefore their ability to project power is limited while "the West"s" reach is global and offensive. But Russia and China are quite capable of defending their area. In fairness to Trenin, I assume he is equating superpower status with force projection, whereas Russia (and China) are defensively oriented, regardless of what NATO may project about "empire."

It will be very difficult for the US and its allies to break up Russia and China into smaller states after gaining control of the rimland that surrounds them. But they haven't given on that yet, and in some ways are pressing ahead more strongly, apparently because they see the window of opportunity closing.

A reason that Putin in at the top of the West's shitlist is that he upset the apple cart when the West was about again control of the region after the collapse of the USSR and the "liberalization" that almost destroyed Russia and Russian society. Putin stepped in and put an end to it. Now the game has shifted.

The Ambassador's Brief
Russia
Dr. Dmitri Trenin is the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. He also chairs the Center’s research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.

Sultan shines in the court of the Dragon King — Pepe Escobar


Rebuffed by the EU, NATO-member Turkey pivots away from the West toward Eurasian integration. Russia and China smile. US scowls. Iran in play.

Asia Times
Sultan shines in the court of the Dragon King
Pepe Escobar

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

The CSTO members build a defensive system – from information and politic to logistics and equipment — Alexander Alexandrov

“In 2019, we will hold six exercises on the territory of four countries: Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, – Valery Semerikov said, answering journalists’ questions. – The total number of forces involved, according to our calculations, will be about 12 thousand”.
During these operational and strategic exercises of the CSTO Joined forces “Combat brotherhood – 2019,” as reported, an entire complex of measures of prevention or deterrent, as well as resolution of military conflict with the subsequent restoration of peace will be worked out in a logical sequence. National contingents of troops will work out different tasks as parts of separate episodes of one untied work-frame of a single military-political situation with a single strategic plan.... 
The Vineyard of the Saker
The CSTO members build a defensive system – from information and politic to logistics and equipment
Alexander Alexandrov for the Red star newspaper
Translation by Scott Humor

Geopolitics of multipolarity (Beijing lecture) — Alexander Dugin

I have written about this previously in the comments. Alexander Dugin summarized the main points pretty well. To understand the dynamic going on now in international relations, foreign affairs, military affairs, geopolitics, geostrategy, and choice of tactics, it is necessary to understand this outline in some detail. This is the grand chessboard on which the great game is being played presently between the land powers and their allies and the sea powers and their allies. The stakes are world domination for the foreseeable future, if this is a future given the enormous power of weapons of mass destruction that may be brought into play.

Geopolitika
Geopolitics of multipolarity (Beijing lecture)
Alexander Dugin

See also by Alexander Dugin at Geopolitika
The main principles of multipolar world order
  • Philosophically: real pluralism, diversity, multitude of subjects
  • Anthropologically: inclusive humanism, multinaturalism
  • Geopolitically: complex system of regional powers (Gross Raum)
  • Economically: free trade without (neo) liberal dogmatic
  • Politically: diversity of political systems (dependeing on historical traditions of each people)
  • Culturally: positive acceptance of different identities
We need to begin forming the philosophy of multipolarity that should replace the liberal globalist theory (end of history, Western hegemony, world capitalism, unipolarity and so on)
The basis of the MPW is Russia-China multipolar allience. If there is such allience, MPW exists already today. Russia is one of the two major nuclear powers. China is one of the two major economic powers. If we unite Russian and China in multipolar allience, MPW is already here. India joins immediately after. Entrance of India and Pakistann in SCO is symbol of great importance.
BRI project wnen it includes Russia, is precisely the decisive step toward this multipolar allience. Putin recently suggested to link to BRI Northern Polar Road. So BRI goes eurasian....

Dugin calls it traditionalism as opposed to Western liberalism, but it sounds like a version of liberalism that integrates traditionalism instead of a version of liberalism that regard liberalism and traditionalism as mutually exclusive.

Multipolarity: Greater Eurasia vision

Thursday, June 27, 2019

The Saker interviews A.B. Abrams about the geostrategic developments in Asia The Saker

I recently received a copy of a most interesting book, A.B. Abrams’ “Power and Primacy: the history of western intervention in Asia” and as soon as I started reading it I decided that I wanted to interview the author and ask him about what is taking place in Asia in our times. This was especially interesting to me since Putin has embarked on the Russian version of Obama’s “pivot to Asia“, with the big difference that Putin’s pivot has already proven to be a fantastic success, whereas Obama’s was a dismal failure. I am most grateful to A.B. Abrams for his time and expertise....
This is best article on the current state of geopolitics and geostrategy I have run across recently. Abrams provides a very objective assessment.

The Vineyard of the Saker
The Saker interviews A.B. Abrams about the geostrategic developments in Asia
The Saker
Crossposted at the Unz Review

See also

The Western powers have to acknowledge the rise of China and either include the country in the hegemonic core or be prepared for the emergence of a counter hegemonic power, writes David Lane, Emeritus Fellow of Emmanuel College, Cambridge University....

Valdai Analytics
US-China Relations: Trade Wars or Countervailing Powers?
David Lane

Monday, June 24, 2019

Rabobank: Trump-Xi Meeting Is Not About Tariffs Or Trade, But Who Wins The Great Chess Game And How — Michael Every


More geopolitics and geostrategy, and how it impacts finance and economics.

The danger here is that POTUS and US hardliners see this as a zero-sum game. This greatly increases the chance that it will lead to kinetic warfare on a grander scale. The US is already deep into deploying economic, information, and cyberwarfare against a number of countries, and positioning for kinetic warfare.

The situation now is increasingly hair-trigger.

Zero Hedge
Rabobank: Trump-Xi Meeting Is Not About Tariffs Or Trade, But Who Wins The Great Chess Game And How
Michael Every | Head of Financial Markets Research Asia-Pacific, Rabobank

Sunday, June 23, 2019

America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire — Robert D. Kaplan


Robert Kaplan does geostrategy and does a credible job of it. In my view he sees the big picture  in outline pretty well, although I would quibble with some of the details. It is written from the US POV, of course, but he is able to stand back from it enough to make the article worth a read. Robert Kaplan and his spouse Victoria Nuland are mainstays of US foreign policy, so it is important for that reason alone.

The National Interest
America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire
Robert D. Kaplan | managing director for global macro at Eurasia Group

See also

The following is a transcript of Robert D. Kaplan's speech at the Michael J. Zak Grand Strategy Lecture on March 7th, 2018.

CNAS
Robert Kaplan: Grand Strategy and the Return of Marco Polo's World

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Alastair Crooke — The Dire, Unintended Consequences of Trump’s MAGA War on China


De-globalization and the collapse of the Post WWII world order. Sailing into uncharted territory.

Strategic Culture Foundation
The Dire, Unintended Consequences of Trump’s MAGA War on China
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy

See also

Consortium News
PATRICK LAWRENCE: Pompeo, Pence & the Alienation of Europe

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Margaret Talev and Sheridan Prasso — U.S. Preparing Trump Order to Restrict Chinese Telecoms, Sources Say


This will likely meet reciprocal response and result in a two-tier IT technology, with the West vassals using the Western system and the Global South using the Chinese system. A multi-polar world will result, especially with a growing cold war between the US/Global North and China-Russia/Global South.

Bloomberg
U.S. Preparing Trump Order to Restrict Chinese Telecoms, Sources Say
Margaret Talev and Sheridan Prasso

Tyler Durden

Ecns
Chinese FDI in U.S. plunges as obstacles rise

Fortune
Huawei Founder Ren Zhengfei Breaks Silence as Global Pressures Mount

Sputnik
[Czech President] Zeman Dubs Huawei Security Issue in Czech Republic a 'Trade War'

Sputnik
Chinese Firm Offers New Iranian Oilfield Deal Amid US Sanctions – Report

Open Culture
America at War: Infographic Reveals How the U.S. Military Is Operating in 40% of the World’s Nations
Josh Jones

The American Conservative
Tulsi Gabbard and the Great Foreign Policy Realignment
James Pinkerton

The Guardian
China has some of world's most advanced weapon systems, Pentagon warns
AFP

Zero Hedge
China's Undergound "Great Wall" Missile Defense System Can Block Hypersonic Attacks
Tyler Durden

Fort Russ
US MEDIA IN FEAR: Russia’s Weapon is Deadlier than Nuclear Bomb

Fort Russ
RUSSIA RISING: Russia On Course to be Top 5 Economy by 2020 DESPITE Sanctions

Mint Press News
United States Doesn’t Even Make Top 20 on Global Democracy Index
Common Dreams

Anatoly Karlin


Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Jean Pisani-Ferry — The Global Economy’s Three Games

Three major players – the United States, China, and a loose coalition formed by the other members of the G7 – are shaping the future of the international economic and geopolitical order. And they are all engaged in three contests simultaneously, without knowing which one is the most important.
This is about international relations, geopolitics and geo-strategy, and these fields are generally analyzed in terms of game theory.

The only one that can know which game the US is currently playing is Donald Trump and he is not saying. My money is on the third scenario, and I suspect that China and Russia see it that way, too.

Project Syndicate
The Global Economy’s Three Games
Jean Pisani-Ferry | Professor at the Hertie School of Governance (Berlin) and Sciences Po (Paris), the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa chair at the European University Institute and senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Samir Amin — Financial Globalization: Should China move in?


Must-read. It is not only worth reading but also studying.

Samir Amin, recently deceased, was an Egyptian-French Marxist economist. The analysis presented in this post is spot on.

It reveals the plan of West (US) since China's "opening up" under Deng, and now the Trump Administration in particular, to submit the Chinese economy and therefore China to Western (US) domination both economically and politically.

"Liberalization" is a trap. Europe fell into it, although the UK wisely refrained from joining the EZ and is now disentangling it self from the EU.

This is clear as day to Marxist and Marxian economists, but it is opaque to Western educated economists, including Chinese economists educated in the West that and whose influence is an increasingly weighty in China.

This is a tricky game. Russia has avoided it so far as a result of Western overreach that brought Putin to power. Putin was aware of the abyss into which Russia was falling and pulled back from it. The West (US( hasn't forgiven him for it and is doing all it can to undermine him short of launching WWIII, so far.

China is also a target. We will see if President Xi is up to the challenge. We will also see just how devoted to Marx China really is. Will actions back words?

Western Marxists and Marxians like Samir Amin and Michael Hudson have spelled it out for them.

The post is also noteworthy for pointing out how conventional economics is useless since its models are unrealistic and do not take into consideration how economics, finance, international relations, geopolitics and geostrategy are bound up and interactive in the complex adaptive system of the ongoing Great Game being played on the grand chessboard.

Without understanding the world system and applying this knowledge in economics, economic models generated from deficient assumptions will be useless in the larger picture, which is the one that counts ultimately.

So what is the Trump Administration's strategy in this regard. On the surface, it seems to be contradictory. One one hand, they are pushing ahead with the global trade war, while on the other hand, the economists are on record as free traders and the president himself has said that he would prefer free trade.

The strategy is to place so much pressure on the world economy through US dominance that that the rest of the world submits to US dominance, either though bilateral trade deals that favor the US or free trade on the neoliberal model that guarantees US dominance though multinationals.

The US would prefer the latter but will take the former, too, until the others give up and allow complete "liberalization" under US dominance. In any case, the American Empire becomes a fait accompli.

While it is questionable whether this can be accomplished without major war, the US is fully preparing itself for that too, as are Russia and China, which are the primary targets, named publicly as such by US policy.

Most people have no clue about what is really going on with the hidden agenda at this level. But in terms of the Big Picture it is perfectly "rational." All parties concerned game it out on this basis at the highest levels of government, military and paramilitary ("intelligence").

Defend Democracy Press
Financial Globalization: Should China move in?
Samir Amin

See also

China digging in; Trump doubling down.

Zero Hedge
In recent weeks, Goldman Sachs has likewise been turning increasingly pessimistic.
JPMorgan Sees Full-Blown US-China Trade War In "New Baseline"; Could "End US Stock Market Rally"
Tyler Durden

See also

Review of Conservatives Against Capitalism: From the Industrial Revolution to Globalization by Peter Kolozi, associate professor, Department of Social Sciences, City University of New York.

Chinese culture, which is deeply conservative like Russian culture and other traditional cultures, shares many core values with American conservatism. Anglo-American classical liberalism and neo liberalism (but not German ordo-liberalism) are opposed to traditionalism, of which conserativism is an aspect.

The much of the base of support of the Trump Administration is deeply traditionalistic, hence conservative in this sense.
Murtaza Hussain

See also

Import substitution and supply diversification.
China can produce enough grain on its own to feed its people, but while maintaining food supply security, it will also expand agricultural cooperation with overseas countries, especially countries and regions along the route of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI), an agricultural official has said.
Experts noted on Friday that China can rely entirely on self-production for main crops, but that for certain farming products, it would be good to have more sources of imports in case there are any significant changes in trade status....
Global Times

also

Apropos of the lede link — taking capitalism too far:
A subsidiary of Wanda Group apologized on Saturday and fired three managers who printed an advertisement for a new shopping mall on China's iconic "red scarf" worn by generations of primary school students known as the Chinese Young Pioneers (CYP).
The headmaster at Danyanglu primary school in Heze, in East China's Shandong Province also received a Party warning on Saturday for allowing the advertisement to be printed on the red scarf.

Grade-three students were given the commercialized red scarves, that advertized the opening of Heze Wanda Plaza, during an activity on traffic security on Tuesday afternoon, Legal Daily reported. More than 100 red scarves were retrieved later on Wednesday by teachers. The school also distributed yellow caps to students with the same advertisement. Yellow caps are part of young students' uniforms in many cities in China to make them more visible to motorists.

"Because we found this out early, not many students were seen on the street" wearing the advertisement, an official from the local education bureau in Heze, surnamed Gao, told the Legal Daily....
Ecns
Xinhua

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Alastair Crooke — The Metaphysics to Our Present Global Anguish

Clearly, from the very outset, Trump has been “perceived by the globalist neo-liberal order as a mortal danger to the system which has enriched them” Jatras observes. The big question that Jatras poses in the wake of these events, is how could such collective hysteria have blossomed in to such visceral hostility, that parts of the ‘Anglo’ establishment are ready to intensify hostilities toward Russia – even to the point of risking “a catastrophic, uncontainable [nuclear] conflict”. How is it that the élite’s passion ‘to save globalism’ is so completely overwhelming that it demands their risking human extinction? Jatras suggests that we are dealing here with hugely powerful psychic impulses....
These millenarian revolutionaries - exponents of the new Scientism, who hoped to force a shattering discontinuity in history (through which the flaws of human society would be excised from the body politic) - were, in the last resort, nothing other than secular representatives of the apocalyptic Judaic and Christian myth.
The American millenarian ‘myth’, then and now, was (and is), rooted in the fervent belief in the Manifest Destiny of the United States, ‘the New Jerusalem’, to represent humanity’s best hope for a utopian future. This belief in a special destiny has been reflected in a conviction that the United States must lead – or more properly, has the duty to coerce - mankind toward that future.
The secular crusades.

Reading the piece through, and I recommend doing so, it is difficult not to draw the obvious parallels.

As I have been saying, we are witnessing the clash between liberalism and traditionalism. It is explosive, since it involves the most deeply held values and ideas, and there are seemingly incompatible.

Alexander Dugin deals with this in The Fourth Political Theory. He holds that the first three and liberalism, fascism and communism. Liberalism has defeated the fascism and communism, which are moribund but not yet dead. Now liberalism is confronting traditionalism, and the outcome is already war, where traditionalists are defending their territory.

Islam viewing this as the new crusade, a view reinforced by G. W. Bush's use of the term. This "crusade" even has a name and number and a Wikipedia article"
However, particularly in predominantly Muslim parts of the world, the term crusade produces the same sort of negative reaction as the term jihad does in much of the West.
The US is now actively engaged in banning Confucius Institutes sponsored by the PRC, the purpose of which is teach about Chinese culture and provide instruction in Mandarin.

Many traditionalists, particularly, in Eastern Orthodox countries view this conflict as one between traditionalism and liberalism, with liberalism promoting moral and cultural degeneracy, as well as between their Orthodox faith and Western Christianity, both Roman Catholicism and Protestantism.

"Psychic" indeed. And maybe psychotic?

Strategic Culture Foundation
The Metaphysics to Our Present Global Anguish
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Pepe Escobar — Economic war on Iran is war on Eurasia integration

Hysteria reigned supreme after the first round of US sanctions were reinstated against Iran over the past week. War scenarios abound, and yet the key aspect of the economic war unleashed by the Trump administration has been overlooked: Iran is a major piece in a much larger chessboard.
The US sanctions offensive, launched after Washington’s unilateral pullout from the Iran nuclear deal, should be interpreted as an advance gambit in the New Great Game at whose center lies China’s New Silk Road – arguably the most important infrastructure project of the 21st century — and overall Eurasia integration.…

As I have been saying, the objective is to defeat competitors using economic warfare. The chief competitor of the US is China. Taking down China involves first taking down Iran and Russia.

If economic warfare doesn't do it, then kinetic warfare will follow, unless the US leadership changes and the policy of permanent US global hegemony is abandoned.

Asia Times
Pepe Escobar

See also at AT.

The final whistle is a long way off for the four-decade-old Islamic regime in Tehran, which has been playing patiently against all the odds...
Trump scores an own-goal in the game against Iran
M. K. Bhadrakumar

See also

Untrustworthy. Agreement-incapable.

LobeLog
Why The Supreme Leader Banned Direct Talks With The US
Reza HaghighatNejad

Friday, July 13, 2018

Pepe Escobar — Trump, NATO and ‘Russian aggression’

In Losing Military Supremacy, his latest, groundbreaking book, crack Russian military-naval analyst Andrei Martyanov deconstructs in detail how, “the United States faces two nuclear and industrial superpowers, one of which fields a world-class armed forces. If the military-political, as opposed to merely economic, alliance between Russia and China is ever formalized – this will spell the final doom for the United States as a global power.”

The US deep state (its influential bureaucrats) may be wallowing in perpetual denial, but Trump – after many a closed-door meeting with Henry Kissinger – may have understood the suicidal “strategy” of Washington simultaneously antagonizing Russia and China....
Asia Times
Trump, NATO and ‘Russian aggression’
Pepe Escobar

See also

Anti-satellite.

The Vineyard of the Saker
The other new revolutionary Russian weapons systems: ASATs
The

also

Sending signals.

RT
Beijing to send strategic bombers for ‘real combat’ practice during Int’l Army Games in Russia

Friday, June 29, 2018

Patrick Porter — Donald Trump hasn’t changed America’s grand global strategy – and he won’t

The bottom line about this presidency so far is that even though candidate Trump threatened to govern as an “isolationist”, President Trump is doing no such thing. For all that he threatened to tear up alliances, wind up nation-building wars, and tolerate or even encourage nuclear proliferation, his administration is fundamentally doubling down on “primacy” – the idea that the US should secure a position of global dominance. And as a brief tour through theatres long classed as critical power centres by American governments reveals, the same old pattern is holding....
The upshot is that Trump has not altered the general architecture of America’s power position. Change is possible, but only through the combination of shocks severe enough to challenge the status quo, and only with a president willing to bear the costs of overhauling it. Until then, the fundamental principle of American primacy is here to stay. Trump has not deviated from America’s commitment to primacy. Rather, in brazen terms, he offers primacy without euphemism.
Judging by increases in military spending, I'd say that DJT is doubling down on global dominance.
The Conversation
Donald Trump hasn’t changed America’s grand global strategy – and he won’t
Patrick Porter | Professor of International Security and Strategy, University of Birmingham