Showing posts with label policy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label policy. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

MMT And Fiscal Policy: Radical Or Not? — Brian Romanchuk

Most public debate around Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) revolves around fiscal policy. This is not too surprising, as this is largely where political economy concerns crop up when discussing MMT. However, the emphasis on fiscal policy makes discussions of the MMT debates quite awkward. There is a large divide between the debate in modern economic theory, and the debate in popular discourse.
If we look at economic theory, there are no credible challenges to the MMT story at present; at most, one can debate terminology. Since many economists are keen to present economics as a highly mathematical, scientific discipline, getting into long-winded, arcane debates about linguistic issues does not fit the narrative. However, there are plenty of reasons for there to be a strong debate in popular discourse: not everyone agrees on the proper role of government in the economy. However, we cannot appeal to any formal theory to adjudicate the popular debates....
Bond Economics
MMT And Fiscal Policy: Radical Or Not?
Brian Romanchuk

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Bill Mitchell — Politicians think the public is more right-wing and conservative than it actually is

It is Wednesday and so a short blog. I am working on a number of things at present but getting the material sorted for my next book with Thomas Fazi is a priority at the moment. My snippet today though is about a study that has just come out in the American Political Science Review – Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites – by two US academics. The title is indicative. They explore what they argue is a disjuncture between what the politicians think voters want and what the voters actually want. This lack of congruence is also biased towards right-wing views. So, the politicians “believed that much more of the public in their constituencies preferred conservative policies than actually did”. They trace this bias to biases in the way the politicians get their information. The takeaway is that the progressive side of the debate has to be more active in framing distinctive messages and using multiple ways and avenues to communicate those messages to the candidates seeking election and the politicians that have been elected. And it must refrain from using conservative frames which advisors think neutralise difficult concepts etc. I think this sort of research provides some hope. I will be writing more about this in the weeks to come. And after that listen to some really classic minimalism from the C19th, which you might suspect on listening is very contemporary such was the genius of the composer....
There is a discrepancy  between public opinion and policy. The question is why and what can be done about it if it is a failing of democracy.

Note that this is not necessarily a failing of democracy in a democratic republic where the people elect a few to represent interests in government.

It is possible, for example, that politicians are better informed than the public and so are acting the public interest when it may appear they are not from the polling.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Politicians think the public is more right-wing and conservative than it actually is
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Friday, June 16, 2017

Moon of Alabama When Generals Make Policies - From Tactics To Strategy To Political Decision


Let me draw out a bit the point that b makes about strategy versus tactics. The priories in descending order are policy, which set goals and purpose, strategy which sets objective for reading the policy goals and achieving purpose, and tactics, which is concerned with operational means in achieving objectives.

Policy is fixed, strategy is adaptable, and tactics agile.

Mixing these up is unprofessional and can become amateurish, as in mission creep led by tactics.

The etymological root of "strategy" is Greek strategos and Latin strategus, meaning a general, or other general officer such as a field marshall. Generals are in charge of strategy. They are part of the general staff. Their portfolio is planning. In the US, "the Pentagon" is an abstraction for this function.

Officers from colonel below are officers of the line, or line officers. They are responsible for the actual fighting, that is, tactics.

A problem arises because generals are promoted from the line. Therefore, the Peter principle applies. Since candidates for promotion are chosen on the basis of past performance rather than intended performance, some candidates may be promoted beyond their level of competence.

This is a persistent problem in militaries. Good tacticians don't necessarily make good strategists. For example, Patton and Rommel are known as great tacticians, even superb tacticians, but they are not considered great strategists. 

This is a problem for President Trump since he doesn't have the military competence to make good choices. He knows that so he has ceded military choices to his commanders. However, to be successful he must have the ability to distinguish good strategist, or be lucky. He was neither in choosing James Mattis.

The entire general staff seems to suffer from this syndrome when they say that there is no end in sight the global war on terror and it may go on for many decades. They have no plan and it is appearing that there is no viable plan without massively occupying many countries for the foreseeable future, which is not viable politically.

They need to be figuring out an exit strategy that saves as much face as possible, instead of repeating a Vietnam situation where they end up fleeing as they draw down.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Neil Wilson — Running a Modern Money Economy

MMT is a description of the existing monetary system and its interaction with the production mechanisms. It takes a unique viewpoint that highlights opportunities that remain out of sight to traditional methods.
From this viewpoint comes a number of suggested policy proposals. So how do those proposals help keep things running smoothly?
Modern Money Matters
Running a Modern Money Economy
Neil Wilson

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Robert D. Kaplan — The Real War of Ideas


Robert Kaplan proposes that geopolitics-policy is a more relevant distinction than realist-idealist in delineating different approaches to foreign affairs and international relations.
However, to label the first mindset as realist and the second mindset as idealist is much too facile. So, too, is to label the first mindset determinist and the second anti-determinist—with those often opposed to humanitarian intervention usually in the first camp and those often in favor of it usually in the second camp. And yet all of these dichotomies do capture elements of a certain division in the battle of ideas. Indeed, because these are wholly different sensibilities and worldviews that I am talking about—which, among other things, undergird differences of opinion on specific issues—there is something deeper going on here that explains many of the disputes in Washington, and that causes some people, for example, to admire the prescient wisdom of the arch-realist Brent Scowcroft and others to admire the sheer energy of the do-gooder John Kerry.…
In fact, I am talking about those who are drawn to geopolitics—the eternal battle of space and power played out in a geographical setting, among states with specific and often intractable historical and cultural tendencies—and those who are drawn to policy, in which human agency actively tries to forge solutions to international problems based on specific actions of the U.S. government. The first group is more or less drawn to reading and studying history and literature; the second is more or less drawn to reading and studying political science. The first is attracted to narrative; the second to graphs and tables. The first is attracted to deep-rooted cultural essences; the second to the commonality that unites individuals across cultural boundaries in an age of globalization.
As imperfect as these generalizations are, they do convey a truth, I believe. That truth being: where people stand on the big questions of foreign policy is subjectively related to their intellectual tastes and proclivities. But it gets more complicated. For while the idealistic policy types, as I’ve noted, are drawn generally to political science, neoconservatives (a subset of idealists) are drawn to philosophy whereby they apply the same abstract principles the world over. The realist geopolitical types, on the other hand, are drawn to area expertise, which requires the kind of intimate cultural and historical knowledge of specific geographical terrains: terrains that turn out, in many instances, not to be amenable to those general philosophical principles neoconservatives and liberal internationalists, too, revere.
The National Interest
The Real War of Ideas
Robert D. Kaplan | senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security

Friday, September 4, 2015

Sandwichman — The Moral Center of Capitalism and the Cornerstone of the Confederacy

The "measuring rod" of historical "correctness" for school textbooks in the Southern States instructed school boards and libraries to "Reject a book that says the South fought to hold her slaves." These criteria, enforced by state textbook selection committees in the South, became the de facto national norm for the U.S. due to commercial expediency.
So, Reich's question, "what happened to the moral core of capitalism?" can only be answered with a question: "what moral core?"
Econospeak
The Moral Center of Capitalism and the Cornerstone of the Confederacy
Sandwichman

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Putin's stupid economic policies might be eroding the support of the Russian people

New York Times reporting that workers in some Russian cities are not getting paid.

MOSCOW — In the far east, the teachers went on strike. In central Russia, it was the employees of a metallurgical plant. In St. Petersburg, autoworkers laid down their tools. And at a remote construction site in Siberia, laborers painted their complaints in gigantic white letters on the roofs of their dormitories.
“Dear Putin, V.V.,” the message said. “Four months without pay.”
After months of frustration with an economy sagging under the weight of international sanctions and falling energy prices, workers across Russia are starting to protest against unpaid wages and go on strike, in the first nationwide backlash against President Vladimir V. Putin’s economic policies.

This is the New York Times, so I don't know how true it is because it has taken a consistent, anti-Russian stance since Crimea, however, take it for what it's worth.

I can tell you that I have a friend whose family lives in Siberia and they are very frustrated and angry at what Putin has been doing.

Workers not getting paid. Hospital closings. Spending cuts. Skyrocketing interest rates.

The Russian people are starting to feel the pain of Putin's stupid policies in reaction to US/EU sanctions.

I  predicted this.

Instead of ramping up domestic spending and investment, curtailing oil and gas sales to Europe and decisively intervening to end the violence in Eastern Ukraine, Putin has done the opposite. He's imposed austerity, stopped making payments to workers, pleaded with Europe to allow Russia to continue its gas sales (to help his oligarch friends?) and bought gold (WTF???).

This is much  more than a slap  in the face to the Russian people who have supported him. It's abandonment.

Western neocons might be playing a more savvy game of chess here. They might not have to do very much; as Putin's support erodes who knows what could happen? He gets removed? A coup by some oligarch with CIA support? Just thinking out loud.

Sunday, April 5, 2015

The Entire Discipline Of Economics Has Become So Misused That It's Current Use Harms More Than It Helps

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)
Definition of "economics": what aristocrats call "creative accounting."

So what does Economic Policy mean? That we have a policy on accounting, aka "economics?"

Isn't that akin to having a policy on records keeping, and art, and photography, and reporting? Yes, it's true Maude. Aristocrats have a policy on all those things, and that core policy is called propaganda - instilling the claim that THEY matter more than YOU, or WE collectively do.

Definition of aristocrats: sociopaths, projecting their value metrics on to us.

Can we fault every idiot for promoting an idiot-centric policy? No. We knew they were idiots before we agreed - possibly out of boredom - to experience the movie.

Can we fault ourselves, for trying to ignore idiots, and even kicking them upstairs where we naively imagine that they can do no harm? YES!!!

If you try to ignore aggregate policy, you soon find yourself being ruled by people dumber or at least more ignorant than you are, promoting idiotically illogical policies - just because we let them.

Do idiotic-policies make sense, for an evolving aggregate? Not for very long, if ever, or even transiently. Idiotic policies are, by definition, the policies of parasitism, just because the perspectives are so narrow, and typically unchanging. 

Evolving reality dictates that there are always things - many things - that we have to start doing differently. Trying to resist that change makes you, by definition, a parasite, draining your aggregate of the Public Initiative needed to keep exploring emerging options, via adaptive change. Has everyone agreed that parasites play no useful purpose, in culling the least progressive? No, comically enough.* Yet it's equally true that the aggregate selection process cannot be left to the parasites, aka aristocrats, aka economics experts, aka sociopaths. Progress is too important to be left for our self-parasites alone to judge.

That's why trying to use tracking numbers to create, evolve, lead or invent .... is just so brain dead that it's embarrassing. Invented, numeric tracking or feedback metrics are for assessing execution, NOT for selecting milestone goals or aggregate Desired Outcomes. So please cease, forever, the habit of confusing Desired Outcomes with infinite, alternate path progressions**

Consider this article as an example:
What Uncle Sam really owes

These authors - and commentators - seem to mean well, yet by the faux logic expressed in their article, Quarks owe infinite Planck units to Hadrons, or to something. How will they ever pay that Universal debt? (Doh!)

They've become part of the problem! What does their line of reasoning imply? That the universe is insolvent?

Has S&P lowered the financial rating of homo sapiens yet? :(

Some days it hurts my head just reading the oxymoronic things economists say. It's like reading archaic views about how many pinheads can dance on your view of reality.

Warren Mosler eventually came to his conclusion that "The entire finance industry is more trouble than it's worth."

I'll now add that "The entire discipline of economics has become so misused that it's current use harms more than it helps."



Yet here's a MiddleClassKiller line from the UncleSamOwes article.

"since the founding of the country, the U.S. government has never had a negative net worth"

Net worth? Net worth to whom? It's not at all clear how to "value" the issuer & user of a set of denominating numbers, or who to delegate the "valuation" process to. Certainly not using those invented numerals themselves! And certainly not by those fixated on uselessly hoarding public fiat!

Surely you jest?

No? Oh, my Denominator!!! Then please do the following thought experiment, and reconsider once you're sober.

If YOU decide to issue yourself enough "Initiative Denominating" ratings (purely in order to accurately track and "organize" your personal initiative, mind you) ..... have YOU instantly exceeded YOUR net worth to yourself ... simply by CREATING your tracking numerals, out of thin air?

After all, in double-entry accounting, every CREATED metric (supposedly) has to be balanced by an equal & opposite debit from the SOURCE of that metric. 

[Pause ... to let that sink in.]

So, ask yourself. What is the source of personal and private initiative? Please don't tell me that you think that it's always and only a lust for transaction-denominating numerals - by "intelligent, perfectly competing, agents" .... competing for use of their own feedback reporting numerals.

The basic silliness here is that double-entry accounting is an invented bookkeeping method ... that overlooks the original, ongoing and constant act of creation we call reality, life, evolution, markets and economies ... which all constitute the cost & return on coordination

How silly is it for an accounting system to overlook creation of what it's trying to accurately track? Well, it's embarrassingly dumb, down to it's very axioms. Possibly fatally dumb. Nay, suicidally dumb.

Could we possibly compound such an error? Only by using such stupidity to craft Desired Outcomes, assess milestone goals and craft policy. No aggregate is that stupid though, right?

How do YOU denominate your personal initiative? By loaning tracking numerals to yourself? And then declaring a debt to yourself? Or do you set and achieve Desired Outcomes, and just use accounting when & as needed, to help in exploring emerging options?

So how does an aggregate of people denominate their Public Initiative? Not ONLY by issuing tracking numerals to themselves, and then panicking at the thought of being permanently on the hook to themselves for the burden of creating more transaction-denominating numerals.

Can we go back to real, and how it's created? Please?


                ###
________________________________________________


* [Will conservatives even realize that they are eventually the butt of their own, excessive joke?]


    [2000 years later (and at least 3.5 BILLION years after the 1st social molecules), and we're still fitfully rediscovering system dynamics ... and marveling as though it were something novel? Don't weep for your electorate, USA, they may be past saving.]


*[Aristocrats & Economists are the one attempted exception proving the Law of Selective Aggregate-Self-Employment: "Those that know how will always have a job, and those who know why will eventually be their boss - unless we suicidally cede why to how." Good luck trying.]


Sunday, March 1, 2015

Uh ... Isn't Demand Destruction Inseparable From Policy?

  (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)




Oil price crash is driven by Demand Destruction, not politics


?? Same thing? Or do they think the only demand that can be destroyed is demand for oil? They can't see the Aggregate Demand for THEIR demands?

How are Demand Destruction & policy separable?

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Jonathan Denn — The Politics of MMT (Strange Bedfellows)

I don’t think these two premises, MMT and ideology, are mutually exclusive. What I propose is there are issues and contexts where a majority, perhaps even a supermajority of Americans, could agree on—where, how, and when—public spending can decouple from the restraints of taxing and borrowing.
New Economic Perspectives
The Politics of MMT (Strange Bedfellows)
Jonathan Denn

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Is There Any Bureaucracy (Or Orthodoxy) In The World With An Intact Legacy? World Upheaval Now Guaranteed.

(Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)





(but not for the reasons the author imagines)
(& all this from an author who thinks that the USA has a "massive debt overhang")
(yet there is agreement that, "financial repression finally backfires" )
Back in Oct, 2014: "the Bank of Japan shocked the world, announcing a massive expansion in its own asset purchases timed to coincide with the government pension fund’s announcement that it was getting out of JGBs and into global equities."
Huh? Given all this out-of-paradigm nonsense, the author is surprised that predicted outcomes sometimes don't occur? Someone should tell him that we have zero predictive power.

[Not to mention that Japan had already announced an increase in sales taxes actually DESIGNED to equalize & thereby invalidate the effect of their fiscal "stimulus" - and was about to hike them further!]

First, Japan's "Gov pension fund" is simply an accounting agency within the Japanese Gov, i.e., one obscure expression of Japanese policy.

Second, let's not even dwell on how the Japanese gov's move into foreign equities turned out. Instead, look for coherence in their internal logic. Is there any?

How many would actually applaud if the Japanese gov next "shocked" the world by issuing Yen (¥) not to directly provision the nation & population of Japan, but instead to directly invest in foreign equities? (Would many eyebrows be raised? How many would really be shocked?)

You couldn't make this up.

Not only does it seems like the Japanese gov agencies collectively don't know what they're doing, ..... but it also seems as though their different bureaucracies and policy lobbies either don't know, don't understand or don't care what one another are doing!

And the picture is not markedly different in the USA or Europe, or elsewhere around the world!


Everywhere you look, in G7 or other country policies, the ongoing outcomes seem more like the results of mob rule by independent agencies or lobbies running on their own auto-pilots, operating at least semi-independently. Regardless of their respective paradigms, there is no coherent, overall policy logic (unless some entity is purposely sowing confusion, in order to disorient, divide & conquer).

Our electorates are electing no leaders capable of commanding? Anywhere? (Or else it's worse, and actual instigators are still operating in stealth mode?) It sure looks that way.

This all means great risk, and complete uncertainty, as well as great opportunity. Seemingly, any dark horse nation has a great chance to win this chess tournament, because every bureaucracy worldwide seems to be operating out of paradigm for current contexts.

I can't sense any coherence in announced policy steps from the USA or G7.

Are you sure we changed administrations? Either we're leaderless, or there really are active agendas which continue to incidentally confuse, divide & conquer the entire world, coming from distributed lobbies now dominating USA (& G7) policy.

Either way, too few lobbies pushing this many boundaries ALWAYS clumsily produce unpredictable outcomes.

This world population is too big & too inter-connected to be either:
a) without a coherent policy formation process (e.g., leaderless &/or fractious), or
b) amenable to world governance (regardless of which Central Planners make a play).

I see only approaching turmoil, or at best, incredible dumb luck.

What's your sense?


Wednesday, November 12, 2014

When YOU See Your Own Slow-Motion Train Wreck Proceeding ... What Do YOU Do?

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)

"AS a senior commander in Iraq and Afghanistan, I lost 80 soldiers. Despite their sacrifices, and those of thousands more, all we have to show for it are two failed wars. This fact eats at me every day, and Veterans Day is tougher than most."
The truth about the wars is just one consequence of the truth about our national policy apparatus and current politics.

What's the way forward?

ps: just got this feedback from a guy in Texas, disgusted with both parties, his gov (Rick Perry) & Obama:
"The Obama admin is a train wreck – Washington is being run by a bunch of lying Chicago gangsters who honed their skills at the Richard M or Richard J Daly School of Government – which is governance by edict or something akin to way things run in Tehran, Caracas, Moscow, or Pyongyang – Chicago knows nothing about Jeffersonian or Madison Democracy."
Well said!!!

And what does that say about our electorate? A slow-motion train wreck?

When YOU see your own slow-motion train wreck proceeding ... what do YOU do?

We're all in this together. Blame isn't good enough. We need to coordinate some solutions on a scale bigger than ever before seen.  It's up to us.


Thursday, October 23, 2014

Always Remember That Floating Fx Reflects Policy Steps, Not Just Markets Presumed To Function In Isolation


(Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)

Naïveté = uncertainty.

There is no such thing as Free Trade. There are only policies affecting arbitrage opportunities for different people, disciplines and whole classes of citizens. 

Statesmanship means trying to track the long-term implications of policy for national options. Politicians are hired to NOT paint their electorates into corners which the people on the street can't possibly see coming.
Currency Wars: The Next Generation
(hat tip Art Patten)


Sunday, October 12, 2014

Narrow Statements Fall Short Of A General Policy Observation. We Need Synthesis, Through Coordination.

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)

With enough of these narrow, repetitive statements, will all the emerging institutions representing the (growing thousands) of established disciplines join together in crafting ingenious POLICY remedies?

The distinction between tactics, strategy & policy is entirely one of feedback scale, and convergence to subtle tuning steps, 5 or more steps back in diverging causality chains. Policy agility can't emerge without sharing a deep enough general perspective on common context.

Of course solutions aren't obvious, and finding them isn't easy. Our only chance is to put our heads together and consider what's optimal for the 7th generation yet unborn. That's ancient tribal logic. Why are we failing to practice it on a bigger scale?

Glut of postdoc researchers stirs quiet crisis in science
What's the root causality behind this and all other un- & under-employment issues? Maybe we're just not setting national goals worthy of this electorate's talents?
Why not? Maybe we just got out of the aggregate habit of leveraging all the distributed talent we possess?

We as a people are what we practice.

If we as a people don't retain the practice of setting worthwhile Desired Outcomes ... we won't have any to tempt us ... and we won't have motivation to keep all of us busy.

Who were the first opponents of Neo-Liberal idiocy? Probably the first tribal members, over 100,000 years ago. Amazingly, they're still not the last.




Saturday, September 6, 2014

GDP As A Policy Metric, It's Not Just Not Right, It's Not Even Wrong

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)




Steve Hansen says: "The most recent quarter being reported says the real economy is growing at 4.2%. Am I the only one who believes this is a lie?"
It's a hopeful sign when steadfast financial analysts start to question the very fundamentals of economics. That's when people normally focused on business & investing tactics and strategy finally start to pay attention to national policy.

I take that as a potentially very good sign.

I really like this author, Steve Hansen. He's helping the orthodox re-think faux fundamentals, strictly using their own concepts and jargon.

When even orthodox analysis says orthodoxy is no longer useful ... maybe we're closer to a phase shift than anyone can guess.

Hope springs eternal, simply because optimists are usually the only ones left standing in the end. :)

Is the grass half smoked, or half gone?   Define smoked.   :)
"The graph below demonstrates the difference between using the previous quarter as the reference point for determining headline GDP (blue line in graph below), and using the same quarter one year ago as the reference (red line in graph below)."




On the other hand, when the BLS routinely resorts to such sophistry ... maybe the glass is only described as looking half full ... when it's actually nearly drained.

Perhaps the real expectations theory is this electorate's feeling that we'll survive even our current batch of politicians ... because we're the ones who signed off on them.  Go figure!

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Setting Net National-Context-Awareness As A Desired National Outcome

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson.)




How about an electorate learning how to lead it's own culture? Can that group-quality be developed by studious group-reflection and group-practice? The answer is obviously a resounding yes, if evolving cultural history is any guide.

How do we the people, as an aggregate, go about DOING that, in a pragmatic, objective way?

There's too much to possibly discuss in just one beginning, so I'll only touch on one facet, indirectly brought to light by a review of the rather forgotten Korean Civil War of 1873-to-today (if not older).*

Rather than getting sidetracked in the wealth of details, please consider what this EXAMPLE means to us, and it's implications for what has and is happening to our own culture.

First off, there are SO many insightful observations on our own, multi-faceted context floating around - from political operations to fiat currency operations, and beyond ... but all of them are under-distributed, under-utilized & hence under-leveraged by we the people, as an aggregate.

When inundated by indicators, the classic solution is to summarize, and discriminate KEY indicators to coalesce around, while letting all others float within local tolerance limits. Yet that presumes that there is always some reference to orient group behavior to. Is it cultural survival? If we are what we-the-people practice, as a whole, then surely we should practice being more systemically aware of what we are, as a group, practicing, so that we can monitor, assess, judge and actively shape what we are becoming, rather than just finding out, after the fact.

Is the answer always more information? How many people will EVER read ANY scholarly bestseller - soon enough to matter? Enough to be statistically significant for real-time policy formation OR for continuous pursuit of an adequately "informed" electorate? Obviously not, since available data always scales faster than the data generators.

Walter Shewhart's words are prophetic.
* Data have no meaning apart from their context.
* Data contain both signal and noise. To be able to extract information, one must separate the signal from the noise within the data.
Obviously, we can't keep all people fully informed. That would reduce to a failed attempt to have clones, and it would destroy the very diversity which we depend upon. Plus, as Shewhart and others showed, the endeavor would be meaningless. We have to keep our diversity and use it too.

To keep evolving our own culture, it seems that we continuously need new cultural models, which must be preceded by new methods, appearing at a faster rate.

What kind of cultural models?

1) Constantly changing models for consciously managing the adaptive rate of our culture, and electorate.

2) Does that mean objective models and metrics for assessing the group-context-awareness of our electorate? Yes?

3) Does that mean setting national-context-awareness as a Desired National Outcome - and then usefully defining "National Context"? At a minimum? As one necessary but not sufficient aspect of an "adequately informed" electorate? Surely? Isn't that what Democracy does - when we let it work?

4) Does that also mean defining National Adaptive Rate as a necessary correlate of rate of change for an ongoing polynomial?
a) Rate of usefully re-defining National Context.

b) Rate of setting new Desired Outcomes worthy of our evolving culture;

c) Rate of adjusting milestone goals accurately defining successful pursuit of those Desired Outcomes.

d) Rate of adjusting our entire, cascading spectrum of policies, strategies, tactics, methods and tools ... in agile pursuit of our constantly evolving goals and summary outcomes.
So when can we see a, b & c spelled out throughout both our cultural outlook AND our K-12 curricula, so that it becomes incorporated into our growing list of guiding principles for all of our subsequent endeavors?


***


*Some of the fascinating insights that this book offers are rarely heard details about the fateful steps circa 1950 that led us to abruptly turn a de-militarized US economy into the Military Industrial Congressional Complex (MICC) which still defines us - and how that sudden reversal also aided the backlash to the 1930s pragmatism and the return to archaic Monetarism and excessively simplistic forms of Conservatism, bordering on Ludditism. It's a sobering reminder that our chosen actions dictate who we become. As we tried to police the world, the world changed us. It's not at all clear who is the victor in that exchange. It doesn't seem to be us.

This book is by Bruce Cumings. Those familiar with the Chicago school of NeoCon, NeoLiberal & Monetarist economics will be surprised that Cumings is on the faculty of that same school, in the History department. Go figure. Maybe there's still hope for the USA, right in the NeoCons front yard!

Cumings' data reveals a long history of Koreans bitterly divided between factions that profitably collaborated with the occupying Japanese between 1910-1945, and those of many stripes who obstinately insisted on either liberty or death. The actions & words of the opposition should have been familiar to Americans, but they weren't recognized, and hence weren't respected.

The paperback version I read is a bit chopped up, since it is condensed from his much larger 2-volume set, but it is still a fascinating read, since it largely details how fundamentally misguided our Korean policy has been, from start to finish, and most of our entire Asian policy too, after 1950.

Aside from the MICC, the book's other parallel to America today is the description of growing alienation and polarization between an Upper Looting Class and a comparatively destitute lower class, with no Middle. Are we listening?



Wednesday, July 2, 2014

"Successful" Politics ... At Expense Of General Welfare Of The People?

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson.)




Translation: "Only 2 Presidents in last 50 years to REDUCE PRIVATE FINANCIAL SAVINGS"

This is a sad commentary on public awareness. Marriner Eccles must be turning over in his grave.

We need to add a simple message to K-12 education, so that Joe/Jane Sixpack don't find the fundamentals of fiat currency operations to be a surprise, or feel implausible. We can't afford to let most citizens erroneously "believe" that the Earth is flat, nor can we afford to let ourselves believe that we can run out of fiat.

In a fiat currency system, the public Currency Issuer's "Deficit" = the private Currency Issuer's financial savings, or financial equity.

(Public Appropriation) - (Taxes) = Currency Already Available for Private Sector Use.

Anything more comes only from MORE fiat.

The independent variables to manage are national capabilities, national output, national policy, and of course inflation/deflation .... but the currency supply itself is a purely nominal, DEPENDENT variable. Not so different from the # of numerals utilized by math students as they practice and apply their profession.

Fiat currency supply follows Public Initiative. There's no point in "balancing" public fiat, unless you want to freeze both US population and national capabilities. Good luck trying to apply that tourniquet to our own necks. We always pass out before managing to completely strangle our growing nation.

As Paul Meli recently noted, our entire stock of $US was on the order of $1Trillion at the close of WWII. Today, the stock of distributed $US is on the order of $60Trillion. Paul asks whom we supposedly "borrowed" that subsequent $59Trillion dollars from, when the US Treasury is the monopoly supplier.


Sunday, June 29, 2014

Wrong Response, Too Late ..... Story Of The Last 70 Years?

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson.)




Vietnam War




Iraq


Is this our story of the last 70 years?
Too little feedback is gathered - or listened to - too late,
.. so what little we hear is mis-analyzed, too late, by too few Central Planners,
.... so our policy acts are too late, and mal-adaptive?

So what do WE the people DO about this state of the disunion?
Not enough voters are hearing that question, often enough.

Why is it so difficult to listen equally to all of us ..... all of the time?

We've trained most intelligent people to pursue small personal gains from systemic inefficiencies ... instead of just fixing them and benefitting indirectly from the awesome returns on coordination.

That is NOT how social species thrive. What we're doing now is a historical aberration. I sincerely hope we survive our present selves. Why even bother putting ourselves through this?
Iraq crisis: John Kerry's search for moderates is five years late (hat tip Chuck Spinney)
The US Secretary of State talks of 'pushing back' against Isis – but who will do this pushing? 
[Just the MICC? And more business as usual?]


Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Tim Johnson — Scientific facts and democratic values



The logic of justification comes down to criteria. Are there absolute criteria? How would one know for sure that one knows that criteria are absolute?

Magic, Maths, and Money — The Relationship between Science and Finance
Scientific facts and democratic values
Tim Johnson | Lecturer in Financial Mathematics at Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

Friday, May 23, 2014

MacroEconomics Is Driving Decline In Policy Agility ... Largely Because It Is Still Rife With Illogical Fallacies Of Scale?

(Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



A culture that no longer listens to the pain of its distributed aggregate .... can not stand.

Bill Mitchell's long review of most documents related to the evolution of the euro currency - and ECB policy - is truly astonishing reading. Most people even vaguely aware of context agree that euro-currency policy has been an unmitigated, self-imposed disaster for citizens of Europe, but the details of how it occurred are fully known to few.

Bill's exhaustive review of those widely distributed details is a lesson in humility, for it clearly shows that none of us is as smart as all of us, and that there is no apparent limit to the idiocy produced by small operators, committees or whole agencies when they are allowed to become isolated from aggregate feedback.

It can be difficult to quickly orient citizens to the magnitude of this catastrophe and its pathetically mundane origins, but I'll try.

The whole story of euro-policy reminds me of the rare cases of humans where those parts of their sensory systems which mediate pain signals become entirely dysfunctional, and they consequently suffer total loss of all pain feedback.

 At first blush, feeling no pain may sound enticing (or even briefly feel that way). Closer review, however, reveals the condition to be a total catastrophe for the "macro" physiology. Without the distributed feedback - minute to minute - of signals across the pain spectrum, from minor to major, every distributed malady goes undetected and uncorrected, and the consequences therefore rapidly compound. Stubbed toes and burned fingers pile up in alarming frequency, strained ligaments, bone bruises and even minor issues such as sun burn fail to trigger the most rudimentary cautions and timely, corrective actions. Then it gets worse. Rapidly! Without the ability to sense distributed pain, much of seemingly rote, programmed reflex & habit has to be left to conscious planning, which never keeps up. Historically, people with this thankfully rare malady usually suffer much and die very young, from their compounding injuries and infections.

Perhaps readers can grasp the analogy to a culture which allows its distributed feedback mechanisms to decline, and thus lets its policy agility also lag. Minus the ability to keep track of the economic pain of all citizens in real-time, cultural devastation can rapidly compound, while the isolated "Central Planners" go blithely on with their "let them eat cake" policy processes.

We know how loss of sensory feedback can occur in physiologies, but how do seemingly increasingly intelligent human aggregates allow cultural feedback to decline so catastrophically? That is one of the themes exposed in Bill Mitchell's latest review installment, where he returns to the - unfortunately quite common - phenomenal examples of a particular bit of illogic known as the Fallacy of Composition. That is itself an unfortunate name, given for the thinking process of the author expressing the illogic. Fallacy of Scale seems much more appropriate, since it refers to the impact on the recipients.

In a cultural fallacy of scale, individuals naturally START OUT thinking mostly of what works locally for them, and they then - IF NOT TAUGHT BETTER - tend to initially presume that what works for them individually works for everyone, no matter how many people accumulate in a growing aggregate. That's how aggregates with flawed educational practices may quickly accumulate illogical oddities such as excessive Libertarianism, or the classic example of sports. "If I stand up at a sport stadium, I'll get a better view. THEREFORE, if we all stand up, we'll ALL get better views." And all this despite truly phenomenal advances in nearly every single, isolated specialty!

In the case of macro-economic policy, Bill Mitchell uncovers repeated examples of idiotic policy errors directly exhibiting the Fallacy of Scale. We already know that perseverance of that fallacy directly correlates with lagging feedback, isolation and/or outright Control Fraud. Of course, those conditions all feed upon themselves, in a maladaptive example of autocatalysis known as Gresham's Dynamic.

The question is what to do about all this cultural and policy pathology, which has persisted for 80 years DESPITE being graphically exposed and thoroughly documented in the 1930s. At least a few lessons seem clear. First, never assume that YOUR feedback isn't necessary for preservation of functional democracy. Second, never send ONLY politicians and lobbyists-for-the-1% to a democracy fight. Those two messages embody the same concept. A house that no longer listens to the pain of its distributed occupants .... can not stand.

One remedy? Always change horses in the middle of a bad dream.*

*Note that that does NOT mean simply switching endlessly between two, equally unresponsive horses. It's past time for "neither of the former," but rather many new, unencumbered faces.