Showing posts with label polling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polling. Show all posts

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Pew — Climate change seen as top threat, but U.S. power a growing worry: poll

Climate change is the top security concern in a poll conducted by the Washington-based Pew Research Center, followed by Islamist terrorism and cyber attacks while respondents in a growing number of countries worried about the power and influence of the United States.
From Reuters no less.

American soft power is declining. Leader of the free world and beacon of liberty no longer?

Reuters
Climate change seen as top threat, but U.S. power a growing worry: poll

Friday, August 24, 2018

Meagan Day — Medicare for All and Free College Tuition Are Wildly Popular Policies

Seventy percent of Americans said they support a single-payer or Medicare for All health insurance system — including 85 percent of registered Democrats and 52 percent of registered Republicans. Compare these numbers to 2014, when only 21 percent of Americans thought we should have a single-payer system.
The number of Americans who want to eliminate the private insurance industry and replace it with a single universal public program has more than tripled in just four years.…
Similarly, according to the Reuters poll, 79 percent of Democrats and 41 percent of Republicans say they support tuition-free college, amounting to 60 percent overall. It’s hard to find earlier polling data on this subject because it wasn’t even a widely discussed political topic prior to Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign — despite the fact that college tuition has more than doubled in the last 30 years, and the student debt crisis has consequently spiraled out of control.
Sanders’s campaign put the idea on the map. Hillary Clinton responded to this pressure from her left by drafting a watered-down version of Bernie’s universal proposal. But the cat was out of the bag, despite establishment Democrats’ best efforts to shove it back in. Now a majority of Americans believe that we should have free public education....
Jacobin
Medicare for All and Free College Tuition Are Wildly Popular Policies
Meagan Day

Friday, November 3, 2017

Daniela Cobos — Millennials Have Had It with Capitalism, New Survey Reveals


Bernie appears to have had an impact.
To obtain this information, the research and data firm YouGov surveyed 23,000 people aged 16 and over. Two of the survey’s findings included that 59 percent of total Americans would rather live in a capitalist country, with 34 percent preferring a socialist nation.
When focusing on millennials, the survey revealed 44 percent of those surveyed would rather live in a socialist nation, compared to 42 percent who would prefer a capitalist country. The socialist movement saw an increase in youth following during Senator Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign, as he advertised a platform of “Democratic Socialism.” 
AlterNet
Millennials Have Had It with Capitalism, New Survey Reveals
Daniela Cobos, International Business Times


Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Laura Santhanam — New poll: Majority of Americans unhappy with Trump’s response to Charlottesville

A majority of Americans are dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s response to the violence that erupted last Saturday in Charlottesville, Virginia, according to a new poll conducted by the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist Poll....
PBS
New poll: Majority of Americans unhappy with Trump’s response to Charlottesville
Laura Santhanam

Thursday, May 4, 2017

RT — Half of young Europeans skeptical of democracy – YouGov survey

Only around half of young Europeans think of democracy as the best form of government, a new survey has revealed, while three-quarters see the EU as more of an economic pact rather than a group of nations sharing core European values.

The YouGov survey, the results of which were published on Thursday, was commissioned by the German TUI Foundation, which promotes dialogue on European issues. Between February and March, it polled 6,000 people aged between 16 and 26 from France, Britain, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, and Spain.

Overall, only 52 percent of the respondents saw democracy as the best form of government. That figure was higher in Germany (62 percent) and Greece (66 percent), the birthplace of democracy, while France, Poland, and Italy were most skeptical (42, 45, and 42 percent, respectively). The latter three countries are home to strong populist, nationalist movements, some of which have been described as far-right.
Additionally, 76 percent saw the EU as more of an economic alliance than a group of countries with common cultural interests (30 percent). A mere seven percent described those values as “religion and Christian culture.”
“The value-based European cohesive forces have for a long time been taken for granted,” said Thomas Ellerbeck, the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the TUI Foundation. “The European Youth Study shows that this apparently self-evident condition no longer applies.”…
Post Modernity?

RT
Half of young Europeans skeptical of democracy – survey

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Rebecca Savransky — Poll: Majority supports strikes on Syria

A HuffPost/YouGov survey finds 51 percent of Americans support the president's decision to order the airstrikes in retaliation for a chemical attack last week that killed civilians in northern Syrian.

Thirty-two percent of Americans are opposed to the strikes and 17 percent are uncertain.
Among Trump voters, 83 percent support the president's decision, while just 11 percent oppose it.
This is a surprisingly small margin at the outset of an operation. It doesn't bode well for committing US troops to an operation in Syria and Iraq, effectively winking back the clock to before the US withdrew from Iraq.

It appears that strongly committed America Firsters are a small minority of Trump supporters. But considering that Trump lost the popular vote, every supporter counts, especially taking into account that Trump has almost no support inside the bubble and strong opposition both from the opposition party and within his own party.

The Hill
Poll: Majority supports strikes on Syria
Rebecca Savransky

Thursday, March 30, 2017

John Helmer — Gorilla Radio, Canada – Russian Anger At Corruption Is A Political Asset For President Vladimir Putin, Not For Critics Like Alexei Navalny


Correcting wishful thinking in the Western press about the recent anti-corruption protests in Russia,  a recent Levada Center poll reveals that they were actually pro-Putin.
President Vladimir Putin is viewed as the Russians’ preference for reducing corruption; fewer Russians now than four years ago believe Putin is personally corrupt, or benefits from the corruption of his cronies and subordinates.
Sometime ago Putin appointed and "honest cop" in charge of a new anti-corruption drive, making his agency independent and giving him free rein to conduct investigations. Since then a number of high-profile political leaders and other powerful people have been arrested for corruption.

President Xi took similar measures in China and many "tigers" have been arrested in addition to "flies."

Meanwhile, the US continues to apply its double standard of law enforcement. The swamp still needs draining.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Frank Chaparro — America has lost faith in big business


Americans are no longer buying trickle down and are now viewing the relationship between workers and owners/management as more adversarial than mutually beneficial.

Business Insider
America has lost faith in big business
Frank Chaparro

Sunday, March 5, 2017

David M Rothschild — Globalization good for USA, but bad for me

A strong plurality of Americans believe that globalization has sidelined them, but has been good for the US economy overall. So, how do they react? They want the government to help them out: massive majorities of Americans believe the government should make college tuition-free and provide healthcare to all people. At the same time they think everyone is whiny: majorities (or strong pluralities) believe that liberals, conservatives, and young people complain too much....
Americans, worried that globalization is making everyone, but them, rich, thinks the government should make things better for them: free college and healthcare. ” Should the government make college tuition-free?” 67 percent agree and 27 percent disagree; 82 percent of Democrats agree and 47 percent of Republicans. ” Should the government pursue a universal health care system guaranteeing health care to all people?” 76 percen t agree and 19 percent disagree; 90 percent of Democrats agree and 61 percent of Republicans.
Predictwise

Friday, October 21, 2016

Salil Mehta — Sea of faulty polls

At this point it makes for Americans to ignore the capricious polls, and simply vote their conscious on Election Day. The numbers in the polls don't add up to the significance the polling conclusions convey.
Statistical Ideas
Sea of faulty polls
Salil Mehta


Thursday, October 20, 2016

Andrew Gelman — Polls


More from über-statistician Andrew Gelman on polling methodology. See the links in the short post.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Polls
Andrew Gelman | professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Sputnik — US Elections: Trump Leads Clinton Nationwide, According to Poll That Called 2012

The US Dornsife/LA Times survey approaches polling slightly differently than others. For one, the opinions of participants are weighted based on how certain they are. Someone who is only 60 percent sure of their vote will count for less than someone who is 100 percent sure.
The Daybreak poll also relies on the same group of people.…
Sputnik
US Elections: Trump Leads Clinton Nationwide, According to Poll That Called 2012

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Brian Denney — Stop reading national polls, the state numbers are where it's at

Despite this, it is important to remember that elections are not about the input of the nation; they are about the outcome of a select few states. So long as California votes solidly democratic and Oklahoma solidly republican, there is no need to factor them into national calculations that skew the results towards the middle.
In this, I challenge voters to do one thing when assessing the state of the presidential race: stop reading the national polls. Such that we have a democratic process rooted in statewide results, it only seems fitting that we exclusively value statewide polls when prognosticating the state of the 2016 election.…
It's about electoral votes by state, not the country-wide popular vote.

Salil Mehta — Antagonism isn't perpetual


An über-statistical looks at polling methodology and offers some cautions and advice.

Hint: The election is a wildcard owing to the unusually high number of undecideds at this point. 

Moreover, pollsters' bias toward a desired result skews the approach.

For what it is worth, I am one of the undecideds. I cannot vote for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton on moral grounds. Especially as a veteran who served during wartime (Vietnam), I cannot in good conscience vote for a candidate that advocates torture or one that promotes interventionism not based on national defense. At this point, I have not made up my mind on what I will do in the voting booth other than not voting for either Trump or Clinton. And I do intend to vote.

Statistical Ideas
Antagonism isn't perpetual
Salil Mehta, statistician and author
ht Zero Hedge

If you don't know who Sali Mehta is, read About.


Monday, September 19, 2016

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

TASS — Russian Justice Ministry source explains recognizing Levada-Center NGO a "foreign agent"

The source claims the non-commercial organization "had received most of its foreign financing from the United States"…
A Justice Ministry source told TASS that a random check carried out by the ministry’s Moscow branch had established that the Levada Center was financed by foreign sources and was involved in political activities in the territory of Russia in the interests of its foreign sponsors. The center prepares and distributes by means of modern information technologies their opinion on decisions passed by Russian bodies of state power and their policy and forms socio-political views and convictions.
"The inspection revealed that the Analytical Center of Yuri Levada …had received a large part of its funds from the United States, including a grant from the University of Wisconsin - Madison, which is curated by the U.S. Department of Defense," the source said.…

Saturday, August 13, 2016

Jonathan T. Rothwell — Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump

Abstract:
The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. Using detailed Gallup survey data for a large number of American adults, I analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably and contrast the results with those found for other candidates. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue collar occupations, but they earn relative high household incomes, and living in areas more exposed to trade or immigration does not increase Trump support. There is stronger evidence that racial isolation and less strictly economic measures of social status, namely health and intergenerational mobility, are robustly predictive of more favorable views toward Trump, and these factors predict support for him but not other Republican presidential candidates.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 24
SSRN
Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump
Jonathan T. Rothwell
Gallup, August 11, 2016

Friday, June 3, 2016

Russia's Top Pollster Analyzes Public Mood, Upcoming Elections — Center on Global Interests interviews Valery Fedorov

The director of the Russian polling center VTSIOM says the country's upcoming elections will see the battle of two polticial agendas: patriotic, reresented by United Russia, and socio-economic, represented by the liberal opposition…
Russia Insider
Russia's Top Pollster Analyzes Public Mood, Upcoming ElectionsCenter on Global Interests interviews Valery Fedorov