Saturday, April 18, 2020

The best coronavirus summary so far — Andrew Gelman

I’d still go with this article by Ed Yong, which covers biology, epidemiology, medicine, and politics. Here’s one bit:
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The best coronavirus summary so far
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

Stephanie Kelton: ‘They’re going to have massive deficits. And it’s fine’ — Brendan Greeley


Positive article.

Financial Times
Stephanie Kelton: ‘They’re going to have massive deficits. And it’s fine’
Brendan Greeley

How CRISPR Can Be Used to Fight COVID-19


Interview with CRISPR co-inventor... I've watched some interviews with Dr. Doudna   ... what I noticed is that she doesnt use the word "find" at all... as in she is not trying to "find" something... she seems to be instead proceeding with purpose... non-Darwinian...






CRISPR gene-editing at home


Whoa.... W....T....F....O....







Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days


Here we go again...

A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

Yeah but apex at what absolute number of acute?  and can you then accommodate that?

This is like the debt doomsday morons always bitching about "debt as a % of GDP!"....




New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a faA study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate lower fatality rate.


Trish Keenan, the singer/ song writer in the British avant-garde band, Broadcast, was touring Australia 9 years ago when caught the flu and died of pneumonia. She was only 42.

Covid-19 may be very contagious but could possibly less lethal than the flu, according to new research. The high numbers of fatalities are due to the high nunber of people getting infected. That's bad, but Dr. Jay Bhattacharya says we may be doing uneccessary harm to our economy. Although the real problem is that our hospitals can't cope with the amount of people becoming seriously ill.

It seems that 50 % of people get no symptoms, and so they are helping to bring about herd immunity because they are out and about infecting people. 

Covid-19 shutdowns have been based on the premise that the disease would kill more than two million Americans absent drastic actions to slow its spread. That model assumed case fatality rates—the share of infected people who die from the disease—of 1% to 3%. The World Health Organization’s estimated case-fatality rate was 3.4%.

Some experts—including in these pages—have questioned this assumption. They argue that known cases are likely only a small portion of the true number of infections, and thus high case-fatality rates could be off by orders of magnitude. We don’t know what portion of infections have gone undetected for a lack of tests, restrictive qualifications to get tested, and a potentially large incidence of mild illness or asymptomatic infection. 


Mexico’s Central Bank Rebuffs President on Early Money Transfer


WEAK.... just WEAK....

The Bank of Mexico on Thursday rejected a proposal by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who was hoping for an advance on money...








Pandemic Pipeline


Interesting article at Nature....




No surprise...  the "out of money!" morons at work here too:

In addition, John Rex argues that, since 2003, the ‘Tamiflu incident’ in the late 2000s set back efforts to construct the non-market mechanisms that might have helped address infectious disease outbreaks. 
Fearing an overwhelming outbreak of avian influenza, health authorities in the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and elsewhere stockpiled Basel, Switzerland-based Hoffmann-La Roche’s approved antiviral Tamiflu (oseltamivir). 
But when the pandemic failed to materialize and governments were left with warehouses full of unused antivirals, “there was a lot of hand-wringing,” says Rex. “Officials felt cheated, ‘ripped off’ by pharma rather than being happy the pandemic didn’t occur.” 
Rex believes that governments should regard effective antivirals and vaccines not as a burdensome drain on limited resources, but rather much as householders regard insurance policies and fire extinguishers: as products we buy hoping never to have to use.


These people are THE MOST dangerous human beings on planet earth... THE MOST... we have to get rid of these f-ing people...




RT — Possibly ‘deepest since Great Depression’: UN chief Guterres warns about pandemic-induced economic downturn

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic will massively increase poverty worldwide, as the number of confirmed cases continues to grow....
RT
Possibly ‘deepest since Great Depression’: UN chief Guterres warns about pandemic-induced economic downturn

Sputnik — Venezuela Blasts Trump After Central Bank Assets Quietly Transferred to Guaido’s Fed Account

The Trump administration quietly ordered the transfer of some $342 million in funds from a Venezuelan central bank account at Citibank to an account controlled by opposition leader and self-proclaimed Venezuelan ‘president’ Juan Guaido at the New York branch of the US Federal Reserve....
Sputnik International
Venezuela Blasts Trump After Central Bank Assets Quietly Transferred to Guaido’s Fed Account

“The Evidence and Tradeoffs for a ‘Stay-at-Home’ Pandemic Response - Andrew Gellman:

Will Marble writes:
I’m a Ph.D. student in political science at Stanford. Along with colleagues from the Stanford medical school, law school, and elsewhere, we recently completed a white paper evaluating the evidence for and tradeoffs involved with shelter-in-place policies. To our knowledge, our paper contains the widest review of the relevant covid-19 research. It summarizes research from a number of fields, including epidemiology, economics, and political science.
I just have a few comments:
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
“The Evidence and Tradeoffs for a ‘Stay-at-Home’ Pandemic Response: A multidisciplinary review examining the medical, psychological, economic and political impact of ‘Stay-at-Home’ implementation in America”
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

Fed UST Purchases reduced to $15B per day next week


Announcement from Fed here yesterday:





They have been reducing the amount of these daily purchases from $75B per day back in March when they were crashing the whole thing (before Treasury increased their rate of UST issuance)...  then down to $60B/day... then $50/day .... and last week's $30B/day... and now next week $15B/day...

Last week the Treasury was doing "pop up" issues of Cash Management Bills (CMBs) in equal amount per day that was the Fed's policy of  the $30B/day:







We can watch what Treasury does next week with these CMB issues if they adjust the daily amount down to match the Fed's $15B/day then we can perhaps assume Treasury is NOW operating with purpose to counteract the Fed policy $4$ via CMBs in order to prevent another catastrophic collapse in Depository leverage ratios...

The other thing to observe is what will happen to bond prices as the Fed purchases becomes less dominant as a % of what Treasury is net issuing every day...  will they go UP?

Lots to observe next week...





Matthew Seligman, bass player and producer, July 14, 1955 - April 17, 2020



Mathew Seligman lost his fight against COVID-19. He had played bass for Morrissey, David Bowie, Sinhead O'Connor, Tori Amos, Chrissy Hynde, The Thomson Twins, The Soft Boys, and Robyn Hitchcock, amongst others. Outside of music he worked as a human rights lawyer.

Robyn Hitchcock fondly remembers Seligman in his tribute, referring to him as “a joyous and funky bass player.” Hitchcock continued: “He made Underwater Moonlight an exuberant LP to record and listen to. His manic bass run at the end of ‘Insanely Jealous’ and his stately propeller dive into the last chorus of the title track, as well as the insistent groove he brought to ‘Kingdom of Love’ are some of the finest bass playing I have ever witnessed... I’m profoundly grateful to have played music with him.”

Pitchfork


The Soft Boys Matthew Seligman has Died


“Pop music is about overstating the obvious” - Matthew Seligman, July 14 1955 - April 17 2020

From the legendary Soft Boys, Underwater Moonlight album. One of my favourite albums.

Queen of Eyes (1980)



Underwater Moonlight



The Soft Boys




France contradicts US on coronavirus link to Wuhan research lab

 Paris: France said on Friday there was no evidence so far of a link between the new coronavirus and the work of the P4 research laboratory in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the current pandemic started.

France contradicts US on coronavirus link to Wuhan research lab

Friday, April 17, 2020

Senator calls to investigate IRS sending checks to dead people


Yeah morons don't want to "waste money!"...





Coronavirus has destroyed the myth of the deficit — L. Randall Wray and Yeva Nersisyan


MMT in the headlines again. The last mile is pretty much closed.

The Guardian
Coronavirus has destroyed the myth of the deficit
L. Randall Wray, Professor of Economics, Bard College, and Yeva Nersisyan, Associate Professor of economics at Franklin and Marshall College

Stanford Study


This one is getting passed around on the socials today...  somewhat good news...





As good as gone...


Its increasingly looking like these numbers are going to ZERO before this is all over....







The China USD zombies are going to....  FREAK....OUT!!!






SCARY!!!!!

Italy-UK team hopes to have COVID-19 vaccine in Sept

Researchers of Italian IRBM, Oxford University to start human testing on 550 volunteers late April

Italy-UK team hopes to have COVID-19 vaccine in Sept

Coronavirus Australia: Three different strains of virus identified by Cambridge University researchers

Could have Covid-19 originated outside of China?

Variant A is the “original human virus genome” and is closest to the “root of the outbreak”, researchers believe. It was found in Wuhan and is most similar to the type of virus found in bats.

COVID-19 is believed to have originated in horseshoe bats and transferred to humans via an intermediary animal such as a pangolin. The epicentre is thought to be a Wuhan seafood market.

Surprisingly however, researchers found the A variant was not Wuhan’s dominant virus type. Instead, mutated versions of A were found in Americans that lived in Wuhan and A-type viruses were also found in patients in Australia and the US.

Coronavirus Australia: Three different strains of virus identified by Cambridge University

China - How to put on a set of PPE against COVID-19

The US is the Indispensable Nation.


Thursday, April 16, 2020

Modern monetary theory—pandemic edition — David F. Ruccio


David Ruccio compares MMT with Marxian economics.

Occasional Links & Commentary
Modern monetary theory—pandemic edition
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame

TGA Policy


Treasury has been accruing Reserves in the General Account to record high levels... here on Tuesday the account closed at $958B:






A few thoughts on this new policy:


Looks like what SOT Mnuchin has worked out is that he is allowing the Fed to acquire assets with new Reserves BUT he is "draining" them from the Depositories by increasing the TGA $4$ with what the Fed is doing and protecting the Depository System's Leverage Ratio from a catastrophic collapse...

Its actually kind of a nice work around quick fix.. its a good way to get thru this and save the regulatory reform for later... so we should see the TGA increase just track the increase in the Fed H.4.1 as Fed adds Reserves...

Then he will probably just keep the TGA elevated until the Fed programs start to roll off.... he will just bring the TGA down at the same time the Fed brings the H.4.1 down $4$....

I dont think we have to worry about "debt ceiling" until 2022 sometime... so SOT can just issue as many USTs as he has to to offset the Fed Reserve add during this virus shutdown causing a lot of liquidations in shares and bonds...

Its not fully ideal and we should expect some volatility (perhaps some short term bearishness from time to time as TGA may fall from day to day) but I think SOT has it figured out enough to avoid GFC2 for now... its not a bad play...

Fiscal is starting to accelerate but it appears SOT is not going to let the TGA drop it appears he is going to increase issuance to keep the TGA elevated even while net withdrawals increase...

We need to monitor this to make sure the TGA doesn't drop... it would be catastrophic.. or if we see the TGA keep increasing beyond Fed Reserve additions it would then add additional support to the Depository System which seems like it is right on the edge of regulatory limits...

We have to see which way it goes from here... up, down or unchanged...

TGA bottomed on Friday March 20th at 388B... Stock market then bottomed Monday March 23rd.... now TGA is at 958B so SOT has drained about $600B since market bottom on March 23rd....

Equity prices have bottomed in response...

Now last 2 days the fiscal finally coming in... nobody else knows that...and importantly SOT  seems to be 'sterilizing' the fiscal via the TGA so no harm there...

Fingers crossed... not a recommendation....



The Washington Post Goes Rogue: China Lab In Focus Of Coronavirus Outbreak

Sometimes things aren't propaganda, we will have to wait and see.

But on Tuesday, the narrative flipped. It’s no longer a story shared by China bears and President Trump fans. Today, Josh Rogin, who is said to be as plugged into the State Department as any Washington Post columnist, was shown documents dating back to 2015 revealing how the U.S. government was worried about safety standards at that Wuhan lab. In fact, they were worried that one day, one of these experiments — including the one on bat coronaviruses — could escape and become a global nightmare.

Forbes 

The Washington Post Goes Rogue: China Lab In Focus Of Coronavirus Outbreak

House Democrats introduce plan to pay Americans $2,000 a month until economy recovers from COVID-19


It will help keep the economy going, so it's good for the wealthy too, like Jeff Bezos, so if would have been nice if Amazon had paid its fair share of tax. But this could save many businesses.

The Emergency Money for the People Act, introduced by Reps. Tim Ryan and Ro Khanna, would give $2,000 a month to Americans over the age of 16 who make less than $130,000 a year.

The payments would count zz_inue for at least six months and would last until unemployment falls to pre-coronavirus levels.

"A one-time, $1,200 check isn't going to cut it," Khanna said. "Americans need sustained cash infusions for the duration of this crisis in order to come out on the other side alive, healthy, and ready to get back to work."


House Democrats introduce plan to pay Americans $2,000 a month until economy recovers from COVID-199-closure

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Links — 15 April 2020

Ray McGovern
AG Barr just signaled that things are about to get ugly for the Russia collusion team

Strategic Culture Foundation
How to Get Rid of a POTUS
John Quincy Adams

Strategic Culture Foundation
A Tiny Indicator of a Big Disruption
Patrick Armstrong

The Vineyard of the Saker
America’s rigged democracy: The oligarch takeover of America’s political system
John Hellevig

Zero Hedge
Private Army: Mark Zuckerberg's Security Cost Facebook A Whopping $23 Million Last Year
Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge
Wealthy Preppers Are Riding This Out In Multimillion-Dollar Bunkers
Tyler Durden

Sputnik
Militants Surrendered to Syrian Army Say Were Trained on US Military Base - Russian Military

Oilprice [Cesium]
China's Secret Weapon In The Looming Tech War
Ian Jenkins



“Capitalist governments treat the health of people as a cost and not as a fundamental right” — Muhammed Shabeer

The tragic situation in Italy depicts the insufficiency of the public health system to manage an extensive crisis. This is not an unexpected phenomenon. The capitalist system and its governments all over the world treat healthcare for the public as a cost that can only be provided at a basic level. The development of a high-level public health system needs a high percentage of funding from the government and bumps the profits of the capitalists. Furthermore, the example of Italy highlights the contradiction between the need for preserving the public health system alongside the profits of the big businesses. Social distancing is prescribed, but, at the same time, conventional working of the factories and overcrowded public transportation for the workers lead to a high possibility of the spread of the virus....
Public purpose or — profits?

Peoples Dispatch
“Capitalist governments treat the health of people as a cost and not as a fundamental right”
Muhammed Shabeer

Debt Relief Is the Most Effective Pandemic Aid — Gordon Brown and Lawrence H. Summers


Summers and Brown redeeming themselves.

Project Syndicate
Debt Relief Is the Most Effective Pandemic Aid
Gordon Brown, former Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom, now United Nations Special Envoy for Global Education, Chair of the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity, and Chair the Advisory Board of the Catalyst Foundation; and Lawrence H. Summers, US Secretary of the Treasury (1999-2001) and Director of the US National Economic Council (2009-2010), former president of Harvard University, where he is currently University Professor

How the Government Pulls Coronavirus Relief Money Out of Thin Air — Matt Phillips


I am going to break a rule and link to this at the New York Times because it is noteworthy owing to its implicit support of MMT. The New York Times is "the paper of record" so this is a big deal.

But aware that you may encounter a paywall. I don't usually link to paywalled sources.

New York Times
How the Government Pulls Coronavirus Relief Money Out of Thin Air
Matt Phillips




IMF Urges Post-Pandemic Stimulus to Avoid Depression Mistake — Rich Miller

The International Monetary Fund wants policy makers to avoid repeating the Depression-era mistake of ratcheting back budget deficits. Instead, it’s urging them to ramp up fiscal stimulus when the coronavirus contagion starts to abate.
 This doesn’t sound all that different from the prescription of Modern Monetary Theory proponents -– a heterodox economic school that contends countries such as the U.S. can run bigger budget shortfalls without worrying about going broke because they print their own money....
Yahoo Finance
IMF Urges Post-Pandemic Stimulus to Avoid Depression Mistake
Rich Miller, Bloomberg