Mike Norman Economics

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Brad DeLong — Robert Lucas Rejects the “Microfoundational” Project

Humans are not atoms. But Robert Lucas saying it is hugely important for the impact.

We’re not going to build up useful economics… starting from individuals…

WCEG — The Equitablog
Robert Lucas Rejects the “Microfoundational” Project
Brad DeLong

Don Quijones — George Soros As Kiev’s Central Banker?

Here’s a little something to get 2015 under way, the first section of a beguiling article from the freelance journalist, historian and economic researcher William Engdahl on behind-the-scenes developments in Ukraine…

Raging Bull-Shit

George Soros As Kiev’s Central Banker?
Don Quijones

Nigel Tufnel in a "Liquidity Trap"

Nigel explaining what you can do when you are up against the "end of the range" in this classic scene from Spinal Tap:

Nigel's discussion here makes as much sense to me as any thing I come across about "liquidity traps" in economic policy discussions.

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Simon Wren-Lewis — On the Stupidity of Demand Deficient Stagnation

In my last post I wrote about “why recessions caused by demand deficiency when inflation is below target are such a scandalous waste. It is a problem that can be easily solved, with lots of winners and no losers. The only reason that this is not obvious to more people is that we have created an institutional divorce between monetary and fiscal policy that obscures that truth.” I suspect I often write stuff that is meaningful to me as a write it but appears obtuse to readers. So this post spells out what I meant.

Mainly Macro
On the Stupidity of Demand Deficient Stagnation
Simon Wren-Lewis | Professor of Economics, Oxford University

My comment there:

Props for crediting MMT.

As you say, this is not innovation in macroeconomics or politics. At the time of the Great Depression, New Deal and WWII, it was advised by Fed chair Marriner Eccles and FRBNY director and then chair Beardsley Ruml, for instance.

As Paul Krugman has noted, what was known previously has been forgotten. MMT economists admit that most of their contribution has been weaving various existing thread together, for example, Wynne Godley's SFC macro modeling using sectoral balances, Abba Lerner's function finance, and Hyman Minsky's analysis of financial instability, as well as his proposal for an employer of last resort-job guarantee similar the the WPA and CCC of the New Deal, which was later the inspiration for the Peace Corps created by JFK.

BTW, as you may have heard, MMT economist Stephanie Kelton has just been hired as chief economist for the minority of the US Senate budget committee, and she is taken a two year leave of absence from the University of Missouri at Kansas City. Hopefully, she can get the ball rolling on some of this in the US Congress.

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Daily Kos — GOP Columnist: The VERY Bad News FOR THE GOP in the GOP's Midterm Victory

The 2014 wave election was hardly the indication of coming GOP sweeps, as some conclude. The GOP looks to have a serious demographic problem. They have boxed themselves in with wedge issues that don't have mass appeal. Worse, there is no one on the horizon that can change this declining direction and survive a GOP primary under present conditions.

The upshot? The decisive elections will be decided in Democratic primaries between the neoliberal and progressive wings until the GOP can get its act together again. This is a pretty strong predictor for HRC in 2016 if the analysis holds. After 2016, the GOP collapses demographically unless they can regroup.

Daily Kos
GOP Columnist: The VERY Bad News FOR THE GOP in the GOP's Midterm Victory
murphthesurf3

Francis P. Sempa — The Geopolitical Vision of Alfred Thayer Mahan

One hundred years later, the insights of the American strategist continue to have extraordinary relevance today.

The Diplomat
The Geopolitical Vision of Alfred Thayer Mahan
Francis P. Sempa

see also

James R. Holmes, Taiwan's New Stealth Corvettes: Just What the Doctor Ordered?

Getting practical.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Bryan Caplan — The Evidence of Altruism

The logic of collective action versus the free rider problem. Take that, economic liberalism.

Each of these stories appeals to self-interest, but economists almost uniformly reject them as absurd. Why? Because they ignore another beloved economic insight: the logic of collective action. When actors have a small effect on big social outcomes, and their only incentive to act is the big outcome itself, selfishness urges them to stand down, twiddle their thumbs, free ride, and yawn "Let someone else do it."

Econolog
The Evidence of Altruism
Bryan Caplan | Professor of Economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute.

Bryan Caplan is a Libertarian (anarcho-capitalist). But see his Why I Am Not an Austrian Economist.

Apparently, some Libertarians (right libertarians) get it about the logic of collective action and the free rider problem that arises from economic liberalism based on self-interest (rational pursuit of maximum utility).

On the other hand, all left libertarians get this, as well as social democrats and heterodox economics of the left — which is why they are on the left. Caplan links to the Wikipedia article on the logic of collective action, which is chiefly about the book of that title by Mancur Olson. What it fails to mention is Nobel laureate in economics Elinor Ostrom's collective action and social development. See her paper, Collective Action and the Evolution of Social Norms.

Oh, and contrary to Libertarian assumptions to the contrary, some people are actually motivated by altruism. Moreover, this is the normal path of human development toward self-actualization and unfolding human potential.

Altruism one manifestation of spiritual maturity. Caplan seems to think that his explanation is comprehensive, whereas it is only partial. Just as humans develop physically, emotionally and intellectually, they are also capable of developing spiritually, that is, the the direction of greater universality as the boundary of individuality recedes toward the horizon of wholeness.

Spiritually immature people imagine that altruism means giving up individual desire, choice and action, which kill one's individuality, one's sense of personal self, that to which one relates everything, which is what one is. However, the opposite is the case. As one grows spiritually through actualizing one's potential as a human being, one becomes more fulfilled, more complete, and happier. As Aristotle observed in Book One of Nichomachean Ethics, happiness or well-being (eudaimonia) is the by-product of excellence (arete). This is consistent with the perennial teaching of those to whom humanity looks to as sages about the spiritual path and the progressive realization of inherent potential. To miss this is to miss what is truly important in life.

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Ezra Klein — This is how the government should budget. But it probably can’t.

Proof positive that Ezra Klein is a moron. Why do people like to him? Oh, they are morons too.

If the government cuts spending on Social Security by $10 billion then it really has saved $10 billion.

VOX
This is how the government should budget. But it probably can’t.

Ezra Klein

Monday, December 29, 2014

Micah White — 9 Notes On The Future Of Revolution

If there’s gonna be a revolution, it’ll happen non-violently. I think it’ll be a very peaceful kind of. It’ll be more like an awakening, you know?

You think maybe maybe he read The Fourth Turning?

Esquire Magazine

9 Notes On The Future Of Revolution

Micah White, cofounder of the Occupy movement

William Blum — American Exceptionalism and American Torture

Lest we forget...

If you open the window of torture, even just a crack, the cold air of the Dark Ages will fill the whole room.

Cold air or stench?

No, Obama didn't end torture.

BTW, if you haven't seen Brazil (1985 film), it's as apropos as Orwell's 1984.

Counterpunch

American Exceptionalism and American Torture
William Blum

Also

Truthout
We Need Moral Certainty on Torture

Victoria Bassetti, Brennan Center for Justice | Op-Ed

We need to reestablish that foundational, incontrovertible moral certainty we once had about torture. The Senate report was a bold and important step toward reestablishing that certitude. More is needed.

There is a less known coda to the Milgram experiments. When dissent was added into the equation, when someone objected to the shocks being administered, the experiment participants’ willingness to inflict abuse diminished substantially.

"The social psychology of this century reveals a major lesson: often it is not so much the kind of person a man is as the kind of situation in which he finds himself that determines how he will act," Milgram wrote after more than a decade’s work.

Washington's Blog
Senior U.S. Government Officials: Release the Full Torture Report

With permission from Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.

MEMORANDUM FOR: Senator Mark Udall

FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

SUBJECT: Stopping Torture

We, the undersigned are veteran intelligence officers with a combined total of over 300 years of experience in intelligence work. We send you this open letter at what seems to be the last minute simply because we had been hoping we would not have to.…

For the Steering Group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)

Thomas Drake, Defense Intelligence Senior Executive Service, NSA (resigned)

Daniel Ellsberg, former State Dept. & Defense Dept. Official (VIPS Associate)

Mike Gravel, former Senator from Alaska; former Army intelligence officer

Larry Johnson, CIA analyst & State Department/counterterrorism, (ret.)

John Kiriakou, former CIA counterterrorism operations officer; federal prison, Loretto, Pennsylvania

Edward Loomis, former Chief, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA

David MacMichael, USMC & National Intelligence Council (ret.)

Ray McGovern, Army Infantry/Intelligence officer & CIA presidential briefer (ret.)

Elizabeth Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East (ret.)

Todd Pierce, MAJ, U.S. Army Judge Advocate (ret.)

Coleen Rowley, Minneapolis Division Counsel & Special Agent, FBI (ret.)

Peter Van Buren, Department of State, Foreign Service Officer (ret.)

Kirk Wiebe, Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA (ret.)

Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret); Foreign Service Officer (ret.)

Max Blumenthal — Exposed: How Republicans and Cops Are Teaming Up to Take Down deBlasio

How much does it cost you to live in your house? If you are a renter, the answer to that question is fairly straightforward (although if your rent includes a gym membership and heat, it is not clearcut what the simple cost of occupying your place is).

But suppose you are an owner. What is it costing you every month or every year to live in your house? The truth is, you don't know with a great deal of precision, and neither does anyone else.

There are two ways to look at the issue.…

Pretty much like the right wing went after Clinton and Obama. Now it's De Blasio's turn.

More divisiveness that is ripping the US apart and hemorrhaging American soft power on the world stage.

AlterNet
Exposed: How Republicans and Cops Are Teaming Up to Take Down deBlasio
Max Blumenthal

See also

AlterNet
Whistleblowing Officer Makes Tape of Top Cop Ordering Stop-and-Frisks of Black Males
Walter Einenkel, DailyKos

Stop “the right people, the right time, the right location,” Deputy Inspector Christopher McCormack is heard saying on the recording.
[...]

“So what am I supposed to do: Stop every black and Hispanic?” Serrano was heard saying on the tape, which was recorded last month at the 40th Precinct in the Bronx.
[...]

“I have no problem telling you this,” the inspector said on the tape. “Male blacks. And I told you at roll call, and I have no problem [to] tell you this, male blacks 14 to 21.”

The tape and testimony are a part of a class-action lawsuit against the NYPD's stop-and-frisk policy.

Crooks and Liars
Mayor DeBlasio: Fire The Commissioner And Discipline Insubordinate Police Officers
Susie Madrak

Democracy Now
NYPD Officer Speaks Out on Fellow Cops Who Turned Backs to Mayor & Why People of Color Fear Police

Amy Goodman interviews Adhyl Polanco

Jacobin
Smash the Lynch Mob
Ari Paul

rjs — November PCE up 0.6%, PCE price index down 0.2%, real PCE on track to jump at 4%+ rate in Q4

Last week the Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Personal Income and Outlays for November, which in addition to the important personal income data, also reports the monthly data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which as you all know is the major component of GDP. From that data, the BEA also computes personal savings and the national savings rate, as well as a price index for PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used in this report to adjust both personal income and consumption expenditures for inflation to arrive at 'real' change figures.. Like the GDP reports, all the dollar amounts referenced by this report are seasonally adjusted and at an annual rate; so the nominal monthly dollar changes, which are not reported, are actually on the order of one twelfth of the reported amounts. However, the percentage changes are expressed as a month over month change and are confusingly used within the report as if they refer to the annualized amounts, making for a difficult report to unpack and report on correctly...

The Economic Populist
November PCE up 0.6%, PCE price index down 0.2%, real PCE on track to jump at 4%+ rate in Q4

rjs

Yanis Varoufakis — Greece is about to give European democracy a chance

Democracy is in big trouble in the EZ. Can the birthplace of Western liberal democracy extricate it.

Yanis Varoufakis
Greece is about to give European democracy a chance

Federal Outlays vs. Net Federal Withdrawals at $700B Divergence for FY 2014

Here is a snip from the latest Monthly Treasury Statement which includes the total Outlays for the previous FY:

So we can see here that Treasury has last FY's total "Outlays"at $3.5T.

While if we look at the Daily Treasury Statement for last FY and examine net Withdrawals from the Treasury account at the Fed here:

If we subtract the total amount of these withdrawals due to UST redemptions of $6.885T from the total withdrawal figure for the FY of $11.071T we are left with about $4.2T of net withdrawals from the US Treasury account.

So the difference between this cash basis amount of 'withdrawals' from the US Treasury account and the accrual basis amount of "outlays" is running at about $700B annual rate, or about 20% of accrual basis "outlays".

So this divergence between the cash basis number in the DTS vs the accrual basis number of the MTS, each of which is supposed to be representative of what the federal government is "spending", is pretty substantial here for last FY at 20%.

Tages Anzeiger — 100 Top Global Thought Leaders 2014

Predominantly liberal.

Pope Francis is the most influential thinker of today. Until 13 March last year he was still known as Jorge Mario Bergoglio and had little worldwide influence as an Argentinian cardinal. Close on his heels is the ‘Internet Pope’ Tim Berners-Lee. The number of researchers and scientists from the USA and Europe is striking, as is their age. Among the top ten, there are only two persons under 60. And only two women, which is less than could have been expected from their representation of 37% in the top 100.

It is also interesting that the economists who were once the centre of public attention have lost ground since the world economic crisis of 2008. The two best-placed economists don’t stand for highly competitive positions in debates on tax and economy; they stand for value-orientated discourse: Amartya Sen (rank 3) and Muhammad Yunus (rank 5) are both pioneers in the fight against poverty.

The fact that discourse about values is more important than debates on the economy or technology can be seen by the ranking of philosophers (an increase from 6 to 10 representatives in the top 100) and theologians – including the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins in rank 19. The relationship between state and religion has become a hot topic, particularly due to Islam. In the Catholic Church, too, a whole host of new debates was triggered by the appointment of the new Pope.…

Tages Anzeiger
100 Top Global Thought Leaders 2014

My podcast for Dec 29.

My podcast for today.

Forex trading. Police insubordination. The weakness of liberals and progressives. Obama's love of neoliberalism.

Podcast for Dec 29.

The Arthurian — "No government in history has been known to evade this pattern."

"Governments, if they endure, always tend increasingly toward aristocratic forms. No government in history has been known to evade this pattern. And as the aristocracy develops, government tends more and more to act exclusively in the interests of the ruling class -- whether that class be hereditary royalty, oligarchs of financial empires, or entrenched bureaucracy." — Frank Herbert, Children of Dune

The New Arthurian Economics
"No government in history has been known to evade this pattern."
The Arthurian

As we enter 2015, it is not useless to look backwards in order to try to guess the trends of the future. I would argue that the age that we are, to some extent exiting now, and which extended from the early 1980s, can be called the “second age of imperialism”--the first one, in the modern history, having been the age of high imperialism 1870-1914.

I will focus here on some of its key manifestations in the ideological sphere, in the areas I know, history and economics. But it should be obvious that ideology is but a manifestation of the underlying real forces, which were twofold: (i) the failure of most developing countries by 1980 to become economically successful and self-sustaining after decolonization and the end of Communism as an alternative global ideology, and (ii) the relatively solid economic record of Western countries (masked by the expansion of borrowing for the lower classes), and regained self-confidence of the elites in the wake of the Reagan-Thatcher (counter-) revolutions and the fall of Communism. The violent manifestations of the second age of imperialism were invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, brutal war in Libya, and the defensive imperialism of Russia in Ukraine and Georgia. But here we are concerned with the superstructure.…

In economics, the second age of imperialism was best reflected in many doctrines and concepts that became discredited during the Great Recession (efficient markets, rational expectations, costless transactions, representative agent, “trickle-down” economics), but even more so in the Washington consensus. While the Washington consensus, the list of ten desirable economic policies to be implemented in the Third World, drawn by John Williamson and reflecting the views of the Washington establishment, had valuable insights, it provided a template for mindless imposition of policies that often, within the context of countries that were forced to implement them, were counterproductive. The Washington consensus was a perfect complement to Fukuyama’s “end of history” because it offered the ultimate economic policies to go together with Fukuyama’s ultimate political organization.

Milanovic broadly summarizes his view of the history, geopolitics, and political economy underlying the rise of the global economy under liberalism. Outlook? Pessimistic.

Global Inequality
The second age of imperialism
Branco Milanovic | Visiting Presidential Professor at City University of New York Graduate Center

Michael Sankowski — Business Cycles: Are they really that mysterious?

It's housing, stupid. Which is a proximate cause of the lagging "recovery" that isn't for most people. The housing channel is not only a major component of investment but housing also drives consumer spending on house and home related items such as furnishings. The obvious question is why housing remains in the tank with so many years of historically low mortgage rates. Here is the income channel, as well as a higher propensity to save (increased liquidity preference owing to heightened uncertainty and reduced expectations).

Monetary Realism
Business Cycles: Are they really that mysterious?

Michael Sankowski

Marshall Auerback — Expect A Bad Fourth Quarter Growth Surprise

So what did Americans supposedly spend so much more on compared to the previous revision released one month ago? Was it cars? Furnishings? Housing and Utilities? Recreational Goods and RVs? Or maybe non-durable goods and financial services?

Actually no. The answer, according to Paul Craig Roberts was Obamacare: [chart]

As Roberts notes, “two-thirds of the ‘boost’ to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the “polar vortex” crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this “growth dry powder” for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.”

This is actually almost correct. It’s not politics but practical problems with quarterly estimation of an enlarged service sector (2/3 of consumption), for which the statistical system here is not designed, a short-coming that is hard to remedy while Congress starves BEA of funds. They have come up with a Quarterly Services Survey to fill the gap but it systematically causes wild swings like the one described above, not because of dark political motivations but because of their methods.…

Macrobits by Marshall Auerback
Expect A Bad Fourth Quarter Growth Surprise
Marshall Auerback

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Putin Wants Sky-High Rates to Come Down. But Will They? And When?

Key question here... story at Bloomberg via Yahoo here. Could be potential bad news on the horizon.

While there are plenty of obstacles to lowering rates with inflation at a 3 1/2-year high and the ruble set for the biggest drop since 1998, derivatives used to predict future borrowing costs signal cuts are in store in the first quarter.

Central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina unexpectedly raised the benchmark to 17 percent from 10.5 percent two weeks ago, putting the economy at risk of a deeper recession to prop up the ruble.

I hope they don't cut rates so soon.

We need them to keep the rates up for a meaningful period to see if the true effects of an interest rate raise are actually stimulative as the govt is a net payer of interest and as such, high rates are fiscally supportive.

If this hypothesis is true we should see a fairly rapid domestic Russian recovery if they keep rates up at 17% for rouble savers long enough.

Sunday, December 28, 2014

David F. Ruccio — Bad ideas of mainstream economics

The following post was contributed by Richard McIntyre, in response to Alan Blinder’s review of Jeff Madrick’s book, Seven Bad Ideas: How Mainstream Economists Have Damaged America and the World, in the New York Review of Books.

Occasional Links & Commentary
Bad ideas of mainstream economics
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics University of Notre Dame Notre Dame

Red Pill Times — Greek Prime Minister goes full fear monger mode in last ditch effort to avoid elections

They did it with Scotland and they are at it again with Greece.

In an all out effort to avoid snap elections in Greece and more Eurozone woes, Brussels lapdog and Greek PM Antonis Samaras is going full fear monger mode in order to convince 12 more MPs to vote for his choice for President this Monday. If the Greek Parliament fails to reach the 180 voted needed to approve Stavros Dimas as Greece’s new President (a purely symbolic role) then, as stipulated in the constitution, elections must be called, and that’s when things get interesting.

The Guardian reports….

Failure would automatically trigger elections that radical leftists would be likely to win. The ballot has therefore electrified Greece, rattled markets and unnerved Europe. “I am once again appealing to all MPs, of all parties, to vote for the president of the republic,” Samaras told state television. “If we don’t elect a president the responsibility will hang heavily over those who don’t vote for [him]. They will be remembered by everyone, especially history.”

Red Pill Times
Greek Prime Minister goes full fear monger mode in last ditch effort to avoid elections
alexrpt

Saturday, December 27, 2014

William Pesek — China Steps In as World's New Bank

Sour grapes, or bitter pill? Looks like a bit of both. Any rate, it's a wake-up call for the West.

The sanctions against Iran and now Russia may turn out to be a bigger geopolitical and geostrategic blunder than the invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, along with the Asian pivot and excluding China from the TPP.

Bloomberg View
China Steps In as World's New Bank
William Pesek

The Rutherford Institute — U.S. Supreme Court Rules 8-1 that Citizens Have No Protection Against Fourth Amendment

In a blow to the constitutional rights of citizens, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 8-1 in Heien v. State of North Carolina that police officers are permitted to violate American citizens’ Fourth Amendment rights if the violation results from a “reasonable” mistake about the law on the part of police. Acting contrary to the venerable principle that “ignorance of the law is no excuse,” the Court ruled that evidence obtained by police during a traffic stop that was not legally justified can be used to prosecute the person if police were reasonably mistaken that the person had violated the law. The Rutherford Institute had asked the U.S. Supreme Court to hold law enforcement officials accountable to knowing and abiding by the rule of law. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the Court’s lone dissenter, warned that the court’s ruling “means further eroding the Fourth Amendment’s protection of civil liberties in a context where that protection has already been worn down.”

The Rutherford Institute’s amicus brief in Heien v. North Carolina is available at www.rutherford.org.

“By refusing to hold police accountable to knowing and abiding by the rule of law, the Supreme Court has given government officials a green light to routinely violate the law,” said John W. Whitehead, president of The Rutherford Institute and author of the award-winning book A Government of Wolves: The Emerging American Police State. “This case may have started out with an improper traffic stop, but where it will end—given the turbulence of our age, with its police overreach, military training drills on American soil, domestic surveillance, SWAT team raids, asset forfeiture, wrongful convictions, and corporate corruption—is not hard to predict. This ruling is what I would call a one-way, nonrefundable ticket to the police state.”

What would possibly count as "unreasonable" if then police discovery something "by chance." This is carte blanche, or even an invitation to abuse.

The Rutherford Institute — On the Front Lines
U.S. Supreme Court Rules 8-1 that Citizens Have No Protection Against Fourth Amendment Violations by Police Officers Ignorant of the Law

Press Release

Akin Oyedele — Goldman's Top Economist Jan Hatzius Just Answered The 8 Most Important Questions For 2015

Goldman Sachs's chief economist Jan Hatzius just published answers to what he believes are the eight top questions for next year.

Here's a list of the questions and our quick summaries of his thoughts…

So in summary, the US economy will grow together with the dollar, faster than its global peers. But inflation below the Fed's target will push its rate hike back to at least September, and the impact of lower oil prices will continue to be felt throughout the economy.

Basically good new. Low wage growth is good news for capital, bad for labor though and bad for inequality, the driver of which is capital share versus labor share.

Business Insider
Goldman's Top Economist Just Answered The 8 Most Important Questions For 2015
Akin Oyedele

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