Sunday, January 4, 2015

Oleg Komlik — Ulrich Beck has died. His powerful concept of ‘Risk society’ is relevant as never was before

His 1986 book Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity is a scholarly (and political) bestseller which was translated into 35 languages, with about 24,000 academic citations. While firm in criticising those who claim Western societies are “postmodern”, Beck also offers an immanent critique of modernity’s failed promises. Due to its own successes, modern society now faces failure: while in the past experiments were conducted in a lab, now the whole world is a test bed. Whether nuclear plants, genetically modified organisms, nanotechnology – if any of these experiments went wrong, the consequences would have a global impact and would be irreversible.… 
Risk society is ‘an inescapable structural condition of advanced industrialization”. Modern society has become a risk society in the sense that it is increasingly occupied with debating, preventing and managing risks that it itself has produced. The changing nature of society’s relation to production and distribution is related to the environmental impact as a totalizing, globalizing economy based on scientific and technical knowledge becomes more central to social organization and social conflict. Whereas in earlier class-based societies only the proletariat was victimized, in the emerging worldwide risk society all groups – even the rich – are threatened.… 
“After all, the ecological issue, considered politically and sociologically, focuses at heart on a systematic, legalized violation of fundamental civil rights – the citizen’s right to life and freedom from bodily harm… In the ecological crisis we are dealing with a breach of fundamental rights that is cushioned and disguised during prosperity but that has socially destabilizing long-term effects that can scarcely be overestimated.” (quoted from: Beck, Ulrich. 1995. Ecological Enlightenment: Essays on the Politics of the Risk Society. Humanities Press. P. 8)
Economic Sociology and Political Economy
Ulrich Beck has died. His powerful concept of ‘Risk society’ is relevant as never was before
Oleg Komlik

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Jason Easley — Bernie Sanders Flexes His Muscles By Introducing Bill To Create 13 Million New Jobs

Sen. Bernie Sanders is using his new position as the top Democratic caucus member on the Senate Budget Committee to push a new bill that he will introduce to the new Congress that will create 13 million jobs by rebuilding the nation’s bridges and roads.
Here are the details via Sen. Sanders…
And Bernie has Stephanie Kelton there as the chief economist for the minority Senate budget committee to say that affordability is no problem.

Politics USA
Bernie Sanders Flexes His Muscles By Introducing Bill To Create 13 Million New Jobs
Jason Easley

Sam Po — GUNDLACH: The Consensus Is Wrong — Interest Rates Could Sink To Levels We Haven't Seen In Decades


Deflation.

Cluster stock
GUNDLACH: The Consensus Is Wrong — Interest Rates Could Sink To Levels We Haven't Seen In Decades
Sam Po

John McMurtry — The “Cancer Stage of Capitalism”: The Ten-Point Global Paradigm Revolution

This is a long post that summarizes Prof. Murtry's book, The Cancer of Capitalism. Download a free PDF of The Cancer Stage of Capitalism (Pluto Press, 1999). I have extracted a summary of the summary but the whole post is worth a read.

It's not in paradigm with MMT but that he not his focus and he cuts to the case about what is truly important economically and socially — "life capital" as that which supports evolving life and is not life-damaging.
As we enter 2015, the global corporate system deepens and spreads in its eco-genocidal effects. But the dots are not joined in their common cause across domains. Money-value coordinates like GDP, commodity productivity and stock market indexes are still adopted as the measures of “economic performance” rather than life capital development which is systemically attacked rather than advanced.…
“the neo-liberal turn”:
  • Rationality = Self-Maximizing Choice 
  • = Always More Money-Value for Self is Good 
  • = Self-Multiplying Sequences of Ever More Money to the Top Under 1%
  • = the Ruling Growth System with No Committed Life Functions
  • = All Else is Disposable Means to this Multiplying Pathogenic Growth

One can test this ruling moral meta program on every degenerate trend.…
None of this can be seen by [neoclassically based conventional] ‘Economics’ because it is a pseudo-science.…
… whatever does not fit this a-priori life-blind construction is heretical in graduate schools supplying economic advisers to governments and corporations, and taboo in the corporate press and media to the extent of its contradiction. It is not only a mechanical model, but is absurdly “freedom” and “well-being at the same time. Whatever deviates from it, conversely, is “irrational” or “despotic”. At the system-wide level of ruling story, the plot is universal for all societies. Purely self-maximizing atomic selves in the market are believed to necessitate the best of possible worlds by an invisible hand of competition ensuring lowest money costs. Life costs do not compute, and “economic growth” is consistent with destroying all life support systems.…
Societies have thus been everywhere ‘restructured’ as subordinate functions to the inexorable transformation of humanity and the world into ever more private commodities and profits...
Behind every step of degeneration lie failures of social knowledge:

(1) failure to diagnose the regulating value mechanism at work;
 
(2) failure to connect across the domains of life despoliation as predictable from the system’s blind money-demand multiplications;

(3) failure to define or demand any public policies against its despoiling and devouring life support systems with the public increasingly financing the out-of-control feeding cycles;
 
(4) failure to recognise any life-value principle or ground of the real economy itself.…
Thus an absurd metaphysics comes to rule which cannot be decoded because its first principles and axioms are a-priori dictates not subject to critical examination. The first principle of this life-blind economics begins by disconnection from all life requirements, grounds and and needs – thus mutating the economy’s provision of otherwise scarce material life goods into an opposite meaning where life goods and life capital do not exist. Capital is assumed as private money-sequences multiplying themselves with life capital blinkered out. Private commodities are assumed to be ‘goods’ although they are in fact increasingly bads for organic, social and ecological life hosts.…
Capital is not life wealth that can produce more life wealth without loss, but increasing transnational private money sequences hollowing out life capital on every plane.…
At the normative level of this doctrine, a ludicrous and fatal doctrine of freedom rules the war and peace of nations beneath consciousness of it. Freedom = freedom for private money demand only = in proportion to the amount controlled = ever less freedom for those with less of it = no right to life for those without it.…
This criterion of life value is no more a matter of opinion than people’s life necessities are. But what are these life needs that no economic paradigm – orthodox or revolutionary – defines? They are in every case that without which life capacities are reduced. Life capital, in turn, is that which produces and reproduces these life goods – from literacy and extending knowledge to the soil we grow in and air we breathe. The ruling value mechanism miscalled ‘the global economy’ is the opposite. It attacks life goods and capital everywhere as ‘externalities’ to its self-multiplying money-sequence and commodity cycles. But because such growth is assumed to be growing life value, the greatest value reversal in history is unseen.…
The underlying turning point is as old as human evolution itself. Every human advance is by knowing what enables life through time from what does not. Collective life advance is transmitting this life-and-death knowledge across selves and generations. The life capital code holds across cultures. Life goods are always that without which life capacities decline and die. All real needs, all real demand, all real supply, and all real economics are known by this criterion. The lost line between good and evil is found in this principle, and so too human freedom and well-being.
We can define the meaning more concretely as follows Every human life suffers and degenerates towards disease and death without breathable and unpolluted air, clean water and waste cycles, nourishing food and drink, protective living space, supportive love, healthcare when needed, a life-coherent environment, symbolic interaction, and meaningful work to perform. All are measurable in sufficiency across cases. All are now degraded, polluted or perverted by the self-multiplying money-capital system defined above.
Collective Life Capital the Missing Link across Divisions
Collective life capital is the long-missing principle of the common interest and collective agency. The life capital code goes deeper than gender, culture or individual differences, and includes past as well as future generations by definition. It is objective, impartial, and universally applicable. It is the ultimate regulator of the economic principles of efficiency, productivity and development. It grounds political legitimacy and supersedes ruinous man-nature, economy-environment splits and individual-social conflicts of interest. By its regulation, freedom is made responsible to its own conditions of possibility. Life capital defines an inner logic of life value which cannot in principle go wrong within or beyond economics. 
Collective life capital is the missing common ground and measure across the lines of death itself. It is the this-worldly bridging concept across the impasse of global culture wars, economy-versus–environment thinking, present-versus-future interests, male versus female conflicts, and all other warring dichotomies wrenching us from our shared life ground beneath property lines and the mors immortalis of reality on earth. 
The difference from received ultimate principles of value across time and theories is in the objective precision of meaning and direction when value judgement and decision are governed by its laws of: (1) life value regulator from start to finish, (2) production of more life value capacity through generational time, (3) life-value measure to tell greater from lesser in any domain by margins of capacity loss or gain, (4) cumulative life gain as the organizing goal of the process throughout, and (5) the meta principle: the more coherently inclusive any decision or action is in enabling life capacities, the better it always is for the world.…
Obviously a real economy would regulate for life capital conservation and advance with money sequences only as means [rather than as an end].
The organizing principle of real economy is long anticipated by China’s Tao-Te Ching and the West’s autarkia of human self-realization, and many prove it in their own lives. Minimal demand on short resources to enable maximum life capacities is the war of recovery on social as well as individual levels. While every corporate state now presses for ever more energy extraction and use with no limit of public and life costs at every imaginable level, the root of economic rationality – ration to need – is effectively taboo in official culture. 
Once the life-capital system decider kicks in, the rules of selection for what compossibly enables rather than disables human and fellow life on earth become evident to reason and learning from mistakes – the ultimate incapacity of the now ruling global system. This is the transformation to true economy and life emancipation, and it can only proceed in accord with the life capital principle that holds across individual, social and environmental life hosts.


Global Research
The “Cancer Stage of Capitalism”: The Ten-Point Global Paradigm Revolution
John McMurtry, FRSC is Professor Emeritus of Philosophy at the University of Guelph, Canada. Most recently, he has focused his research on the value structure of economic theory and its consequences for global civil and environmental life. (Wikipedia)

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Adrian Karatnycky — Warlords and armed groups threaten Ukraine’s rebuilding


Opening the curtain a crack, but only a crack, counterbalanced with Western propaganda, as in:  "Civic activism is on the upsurge, and a new government team — populated with many foreign-born and Western-educated ministers — is largely free from the control of the country’s super-rich, who dictated policy in the past." But at least it's a start for the US. 

Europe is more cognizant of this than America and also much more concerned since it is happening on the ground over which WWII fought with the Nazi forces, both the German military and central Europeans allied with them. Needless to say, the Russian press is playing this up big since anti-Nazi sentiment runs high there and Nazi insignia on Ukrainian troops is like waving a red flag in front of a bull that has been gored.

It's not the "warlordism" and "armed groups" to be chiefly concerned about. It's what they stand for.

The Washington Post | Opinion
Warlords and armed groups threaten Ukraine’s rebuilding
Adrian Karatnycky | senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, where he co-directs the “Ukraine in Europe” initiative

Red Pill — Re-examining France’s Mistral policy…India may cancel $22 Billion Rafale fighter jet contract and instead purchase Russian Su-30 jets

After a three years effort, India’s Defence Minister, Manohar Parrikar, spoke of an impasse in negotiations with his French counterparts. This is a serious blow to the French aviation industry which just last month announced that the deal would be completed in the first half of 2015. 
Icing on the cake…The Defence Ministry announced it is now considering buying Russian Sukhoi Su-30 MKI, which according to the Defence Ministry are ‘absolutely suitable for the needs of the Indian Air Force and half the price’ of the French made Rafales. 
We are also sure India feels much more comfortable purchasing from a supplier that will not fold to US/NATO pressure on a whim…
Red Pill
Re-examining France’s Mistral policy…India may cancel $22 Billion Rafale fighter jet contract and instead purchase Russian Su-30 jets
alexrpt

Plato on European Common Currency Zones 360BC

Silver "old-style" tetradrachm. Head of Athena right,
 wearing crested helmet ornamented with olive leaves
 / Owl standing right, ΑΘΕ, olive sprig and crescent moon behind

Excerpt from Plato's "Laws" c. 360BC below where he documents the correct procedures to be used in operating a common currency zone:

1.  First step is to eliminate the use of metals and thus establish the common currency area where metals are repudiated, comprised of an area spanning and including multiple states:
Further, the law enjoins that no private man shall be allowed to possess gold and silver, but only coin for daily use, which is almost necessary in dealing with artisans, and for payment of hirelings, whether slaves or immigrants, by all those persons who require the use of them.
OK, now that we have dispatched with the metals, and thus established that we humans are completely in charge of our own economic policy, on to the next step.

2.  Establish different currencies for citizens of each member state:
Wherefore our citizens, as we say, should have a coin passing current among themselves, but not accepted among the rest of mankind;
This will allow the local magisterial people in public finance to manage their own currency system within the local territory of the state (intra-state) where only that currency is allowed to be used.  This provides for local magisterial administration which is more efficient and effective.

Now on to the features to successfully allow inter-state transactions within the common currency zone.

3.  Recognize that the purpose of the common currency zone is in the first place to allow for economic interactions across a wider area than just the local area of administration previously established in steps 1 and 2 above.
with a view, however, to expeditions and journeys to other lands-for embassies, or for any other occasion which may arise of sending out a herald, the state must also possess a common Hellenic currency.
4.  Outlaw the "free market" across administrative boundaries by requiring any citizen who wishes to travel outside of the local currency area to first seek magisterial consent.  At this stage, an assessment can be made by the local administrators within the context of "exports are a cost".  Local administrators are in the best position to assess whether the local currency area is fully provisioned in real terms before allowing any exports of real goods and services from the local area under their administration.
 If a private person is ever obliged to go abroad, let him have the consent of the magistrates and go;
This is not a "rubber stamp" from the magistrates.

5.  Require any citizen who may end up with a surplus of foreign currency from an external state surrender this currency immediately upon return and have the local administrators replace these sums with the local currency at a fixed 1:1 ratio.  This will prevent any local citizen from maintaining a financial claim against a citizen of another state.
and if when he returns he has any foreign money remaining, let him give the surplus back to the treasury, and receive a corresponding sum in the local currency.
6.  If the citizen violates this law, confiscate the foreign currency and impose punitive fines equal to the amount appropriated for any citizen and co-conspirators that do not comply.
And if he is discovered to appropriate it, let it be confiscated, and let him who knows and does not inform be subject to curse and dishonour equally him who brought the money, and also to a fine not less in amount than the foreign money which has been brought back.
What they are doing right now in the Eurozone is perhaps with "good intentions", taking steps 1, 2 and 3 but are ignorant of steps 4, 5 and 6 and they are reaping the resultant chaos.

They are pursuing a barbarian-style "free market" (idiots!!!), so they are not doing step 4.  They are allowing foreign claims to be built up by entities between states (idiots!!!) so they are not doing step 5.  And instead of laws enforcing mandatory surrender of these foreign claims, they have established laws to actually enforce the foreign claims (idiots!!!) so they are not doing step 6.

So I think if you read the opinion polls over there, the citizens of Europe generally want to go back to this type of Athenian-style common currency zone for greater Europe, and I think the public's intuition is correct and justified as this type of system allows for successful cooperation between members of mankind across a much larger area.

Cooperation is generally good and can help we of mankind explore greater options and achieve scale economies, etc... respond to local environmental crises, etc.. so I think the citizens of Europe generally realize this and the polls accordingly report this out.

I think the citizens of Europe are demonstrating the correct human intuition here.

But the citizens over there are being entirely let down by the current leadership which just cannot understand, mathematically, why steps 4, 5 and 6 are necessary for long term success in the administration of this kind of system.

I sort of come down on the side of Ramanan wrt this issue of foreign claims and think that the potential for unbridled build up of foreign claims is something to be VERY cognizant of; if for no other reason than in this era where we in the west are still (albeit slowly) emerging out of the era in which we were under the metals, an ignorance of this issue of foreign claims is leading the current magisterial people to miss, mathematically, that "exports are a real cost"; the exporters are being allowed to point to the foreign claims as some sort of compensation they earn for the exports.

The regulatory and administrative accounting treats local claims and foreign claims as if they are the same and imo this is a big part of the current problem.

I think our western ancestors realized this too and this is why they imposed mandatory surrender of foreign claims by local entities with 1:1 compensation from local administrators as a preventive measure.

So we still have a good distance to go to get back to where we manifestly were over 2,000 years ago... maybe we are halfway there at this point.

Its taking a longer time than it perhaps should from our perspective because our current magistrates and administrators are simply not qualified to be occupying their current positions of authority.


ECRI — India Overtakes China with Brighter Outlook to Start 2015

ECRI has updated the Indian Long Leading Index (INLLI), which has a good record of anticipating cyclical turns before conventional leading indexes. This includes the March 2011 to September 2012 growth rate cycle downturn that caught many by surprise.

The latest INLLI reading provides insight into the current optimism surrounding India’s economic prospects that stands in contrast to the consensus view on emerging markets in general.
ECRI

Young India is much more bullish demographically than aging China, owing to the one child policy.

But this can work against India if it doesn't develop quickly enough and cannot provide for its growing population  — which is why China instituted its one child policy.

Kenneth Rogoff — Do Economic Sanctions Work?


History of sanctions and their effects. He doesn't think much of them.

Project Syndicate
Do Economic Sanctions Work?
Kenneth Rogoff | Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, nnd the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003

Friday, January 2, 2015

Jesse — The Great Fallacy at the Heart of Modern Monetary Theory

But here is the matter of disputation, emphasis in caps theirs, in italics mine. "The sovereign government cannot become insolvent in its own currency; it can always make all payments as they come due in its own currency because it is the ISSUER of the currency, not simply the USER."

Do you see what is missing here, and more importantly, what is implied?

What is missing is the acknowledgement that the users of a currency, call them 'the market,' can and will and have quite often throughout history questioned the valuation of a currency, and often to the point of practical worthlessness, if certain actions are taken by the sovereign in creating their currency.
This speaks to a principle that I spelled out some time ago, that the practical limit on a sovereign government in printing money is the willingness of the market toaccept it at a certain value. And this applies to any sovereign, more readily perhaps if they are smaller and weaker, but always given time nonetheless.

If Russia, for example, were to merely start printing more rubles and set a target valuation for them, they could enforce this internally. And in fact, many sovereigns have done so throughout history. I remember visiting Moscow shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union, and marveling at the disconnect between the official stated valuations and the actions of the ordinary people in seeking alternatives like the US Dollar, gold, diamonds, and even Western style toilet paper, a more useful sort of paper than the ruble…
Jesse mistakes insolvency for currency depreciation. They are not the same. Conflating them is a common error. Insolvency can result in currency depreciaton as savers shun the currency, but insolvency is not the only cause of depreciation. Instability is also a chief cause. This might be political instability, inflation, or falling fx rate as foreigners  reduce saving desire in the currency. for whatever reason.

A currency sovereign is not constrained operationally by insolvency although a currency sovereign may chose voluntarily to default, as Russia did in 1998. But this is a political choice, just as would defaulting on the US public debt owing to the voluntary political imposition of a debt ceiling.

Currency depreciation can occur for many reasons, some that are potentially under the government's control or ability to influence, and some not, such as capital destruction in wartime that reduces the potential of the economy, or the changing condition of the world economy that has led to the depreciation of the currencies of countries lacking broad and deep economies that are significantlly dependent on oil exports.

Insolvency is defined as the inability to meet financial obligations as they come due. The government of a nation that is sovereign in its currency and does not borrow in a a currency that it does not control cannot become insolvency. Balance of payments issues may arise but they affect domestic firms and the government itself unless it is liable for the debts of domestic firms. Clearly, a country that issues it own currency and floats the exchange rate cannot become insolvent in this sense, although the fx rate can plunge or inflation can ensue from imprudent policy thereby debasing the currency to the degree that there is currency flight. This, however, is not insolvency.

MMT economists claim that insolvency is not an operational constraint on a currency sovereign but both the foreign exchange rate and domestic price level are operational constraints that governments must take into consideration. For example, petroleum exporters Russia and Venezuela are both adversely affected by steeply falling oil price to the degree that their fx rates are plunging and inflation rate rising, provoking currency flight as holders of the currency no longer wish to save in these currencies. This is entirely consistent with MMT analysis. MMT also observes that a falling fx rate is self-correcting to the degree that the balance of trade shift toward exports.

However, this would not greatly aid emerging countries without broad and deep economies that dependent on exporting a commodity whole value is falling. For example, Venezuela would likely be affected by a collapsing oil price than Russia, whose economy is much broader and deeper than Venezuela's. Indeed, as President Putin has observed, the fall in oil prices is a blessing in disguise since Russia has known for a decade at least that the economy is to tilted toward export of natural resources and needs to be broadened and deepened further by recapturing lost industrial potential and expanding its domestic consumer economy.

MMT also shows how a country can use currency sovereignty to address such issues. For example, Russia was pegging its currency to the USD, threatening a run on its foreign exchange reserves, so it correctly chose to drop the peg and float the ruble. This gives the central bank some leeway in curbing speculation by intervening on occasion to drive up the cost of speculation by squeezing the shorts. The ruble also gained strength at tax time when Russian exporters had to purchase rubles to pay Russian taxes that are only payable in rubles. The firms therefore sold foreign currency obtained through trade in order to meet their tax obligation. As MMT says, taxes drive a currency by creating demand for it.

Furthermore, as Warren Mosler has pointed out, governments control the own rate in setting the policy rate and controlling the yield curve if they choose by setting price and purchasing the quantity necessary to set those yields. Government also influence the price level through the prices they pay in markets, using their currency to transfer resources owned by nongovernment for the public purpose. And as the Great Depression and the aftermath of the recent crisis has shown, government has powerful tools that can be used to address emergencies through both the central bank and fiscal policy.

Then Jesse reveals his ideological concern.
Technically Russia could not become insolvent in rubles, because they could always print more of them to pay all their debts, make purchases, and salary payments. The great caveat in this is that Russia had to maintain a measure of control and enforcement to make that principle 'stick.'

And this is what probably makes MMT inadvertently statist, and dangerous. That is because this belief only works within a domain in which the state exercises complete control over valuation.
So is the "fatal flaw" in MMT that is is too "Keynesian" and not Austrian enough?  :)
I suppose that there are many other things in MMT that are correct, as it seems to be quite the usual thing in many ways, but there is an important exception in the assertion that the state has no limit to its power to set value, because that is exactly what is implied in the canard that a sovereign cannot default in its own currency. Technically it cannot because it can always print more than enough pay off debts and make more purchases. But it can create money in such a way as to break the confidence of the market, and call its valuation into question. And this is a de facto default.
De facto default in the typical Austrian rejoinder to what Austrians see as too much government control and currency profligacy. The error of this is pointed out above. MMT readily admits that there are operational constraints on a currency sovereign but insolvency and forced default are not among them. They are rather the availability of real resources and currency stability, which involves both the price level and fx rate.

Moreover, not all currency instability is the result of "debasement," as some seem to think. The West, President Obama and Prime Minister Cameron, for instance, have stated or strongly implied that the sanctions directed at Russia are design to destabilize the economy and as a consequence the political situation in Russia, with a few to regime change, just as in Cuba and Iran and now Venezuela also. This is intentional application of force majeure that is sufficient legal reason not to honor debts.

Jesse's Café Américain
The Great Fallacy at the Heart of Modern Monetary Theory
Jesse

Yves Smith — Something That Changed My Perspective: Karl Polanyi’s The Great Transformation

The first Christmas-New Years period for this site, in 2007, we featured a series "Something That Changed My Perspective," which presented some things that affected how I viewed the world. The offerings included John Kay on obliquity and Michael Prowse on how income inequality was bad for the health even of the wealthy. Karl Polanyi's The Great Transformation (which I should have read long ago) is proving to be a particularly potent example of this general phenomenon.…
Naked Capitalism
Something That Changed My Perspective: Karl Polanyi’s The Great Transformation
Yves Smith

I am the only one, EVER, to get David Walker to admit publicly that there is no solvency issue when it comes to Social Security

Forget CNBC, Fox Business, MSNBC, CNN...forget Neil Cavuto, Joe Kernan, Larry Kudlow, O'Reilly, Hannity, Bartiromo, Chuck Todd, Chris Wallace, Bob Schieffer, Brian Williams...forget them all.

I am the only one, EVER, to get former Comptroller General of the U.S. -- David Walker -- to admit, publicly, that there is NO SOLVENCY ISSUE WITH SOCIAL SECURITY.

It was on my radio show back in 2008. Here is the soundbite from that interview where he dishonestly states, "I don't think there's a solvency issue. I am not asserting there is a solvency issue."

Yet we all know that he and his deceitful backer, Pete Peterson, have been spending millions in a dishonest campaign of fear mongering in an attempt to convince people that Social Security is bankrupt and needs to be eliminated.

Here's the audio:



Pass it around.

No Happy New Year in the German Steel Industry


MEPS Intl. reports continued price weakness and an environment of increasing Asian price competitiveness in the German steel industry.

If anyone wants to remain in good Happy New Year's cheer, suggest don't read any further:

Hot rolled coil basis figures have softened in Germany, according to the latest report by MEPS. Expectations for next year are poor as the economy is not performing as well as anticipated. There is little confidence in the marketplace. The pipemakers report reasonable activity but their margins are being squeezed by growing overseas competition, particularly from China. 
In the commodity plate market, service centres are buying only what they need to cover immediate orders. They have been keeping inventories under control for some time and, now, many are destocking. Steelmakers are starting to lose some of the gains made at the end of the third quarter, partly due to intense import pressure. 
Distributors are pushing for cold rolled coil price cuts on the back of softening raw material costs. Domestic suppliers have reduced their offers. There has been no revival in demand. Construction-related demand for hot dipped galvanised coil is static. 
The auto industry is holding up, although sales of cars to Russia have dropped sharply in recent times. 
Basis numbers in the general market have succumbed to downward pressure, due to oversupply. Mills have maintained their low carbon wire rod prices again this month but customers are calling for decreases. 
Recoil values have succumbed to negative pressure from declining scrap costs. In addition, the finished mesh market is very competitive at present. Structural section sales volumes are poor where there is strong competition for the little business that is available. Nevertheless, suppliers have held on to prices during recent deals but some slippage could occur in the first trimester. 
The rebar market is very competitive. Buyers have successfully pushed for lower prices as scrap values continue to drop and further decreases cannot be ruled out in a climate of subdued demand. 
Steelmakers have failed to resist customers’ calls for merchant bar basis price cuts, for the third consecutive month. Purchasing activity remains cautious as buyers monitor the constant negative trend. There has been no recovery in business levels.

Wow this is pretty depressing... I don't see a major recovery in the EUR/USD until we see the general negative context of a diversity of European commodity reports like this do a 180; and European firms are in a power position where they are able to start increasing their real terms of trade with US firms.

Euro just hit a new 4 1/2 year low vs. the USD Reuters reports here.
(Reuters) - The euro fell to its lowest in 4 1/2 years against the dollar on Friday after the head of the European Central Bank fueled expectations it would take bolder steps on monetary stimulus later this month.


Thursday, January 1, 2015

Stephen Bevan — Unemployed? You shouldn’t just take any job.

Being in poor-quality work which, perhaps, is boring, routine or represents underemployment or a poor match for the employee’s skills is widely regarded as a good way for the unemployed to remain connected to the labor market – and to keep the work habit. But Butterworth’s data contradict this. The HILDA data show unambiguously that the psychosocial quality of bad jobs is worse than unemployment. Butterworth looked at those moving from unemployment into employment and found that: 
"Those who moved into optimal jobs showed significant improvement in mental health compared to those who remained unemployed. Those respondents who moved into poor-quality jobs showed a significant worsening in their mental health compared to those who remained unemployed."
So now we have a slightly different answer to the question about the unemployed being better off in work. Yes they are, as long as they are in good-quality jobs. If they are in bad jobs, there is a perversely strong chance that they will be worse off – especially in terms of their mental health. 
Again, for those who think that there should be punitive undertones to policies to get unemployed people back to work would do well to question whether the “any job is a good job” maxim is as accurate as they like to think. Moreover, we should probably question whether the revolving-door characteristics of some policies in which many people fall back out of work soon after being found a job might – in part – owe their poor performance to the damaging psychosocial quality of the work itself.

This shouldn’t stop us from straining every sinew to help people find work. But it should make us think a lot more about how the quality of jobs can affect our health and productivity.…
The Washington Post
Unemployed? You shouldn’t just take any job.
Stephen Bevan | Director of the Centre for Workforce Effectiveness at the Work Foundation and an honorary professor at Lancaster University
ht Dan Lynch

Cyber Warriors Wanted. Diabetes Not An Impediment.

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)





General says US army could waive combat training [to get more of "our" hackers fighting "their" hackers].

Just what we need?

Another generation of humans divided & conquered.

Mere gladiators fighting one another for ...... for whom?

What if connected teens worldwide turn on those who suppose they are the masters?

Revenge of the ex Middle Class?

Forget Skynet, and think Small-Fry Net.

How ya gonna keep 'em down on the penal colony, if ever they see democracy?

John T. Harvey — Business Cycles 101, And My Forecast For The New Year

Let me start by saying that regardless of the accuracy of what I write below, unexpected events will occur during the year that will invalidate at least some part of the forecast. I would therefore like to lay out the specific assumptions underlying the predictions so that it’s possible for the reader to later make their own adjustments. After this I will offer my view on what 2015 holds.…
The old cet. par. hedge. :) "Assessment of prospects" might be a more apt phrase than "forecast."

Forbes
Business Cycles 101, And My Forecast For The New Year
John T. Harvey | Professor of Economics, Texas Christian University

As far as I am concerned the NYPD lost its credibility and respect a long time ago

From a New York Times editorial on the disgusting acts of insubordination and disrespect by the monumentally entitled goons of the NYPD.

Mr. de Blasio isn’t going to say it, but somebody has to: With these acts of passive-aggressive contempt and self-pity, many New York police officers, led by their union, are squandering the department’s credibility, defacing its reputation, shredding its hard-earned respect. They have taken the most grave and solemn of civic moments — a funeral of a fallen colleague — and hijacked it for their own petty look-at-us gesture. In doing so, they also turned their backs on Mr. Ramos’s widow and her two young sons, and others in that grief-struck family.
These are disgraceful acts...
But none of those grievances can justify the snarling sense of victimhood that seems to be motivating the anti-de Blasio campaign — the belief that the department is never wrong, that it never needs redirection or reform, only reverence. This is the view peddled by union officials like Patrick Lynch, the president of the Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association — that cops are an ethically impeccable force with their own priorities and codes of behavior, accountable only to themselves, and whose reflexive defiance in the face of valid criticism is somehow normal.
It’s not normal. Not for a professional class of highly trained civil servants, which New York’s Finest profess to be. The police can rightly expect, even insist upon, the respect of the public. But respect is a finite resource. It cannot be wasted. Sometimes it has to be renewed.

It's a mutiny. A coup against civilian rule. And now it cannot be reversed. Even the mayor is scared.

Mayor DeBlasio gives groveling speech in front of 900 graduating NYPD cadets and still gets heckled

The NYPD continues to display its contempt for civilian rule and New York City's duly elected leader. This time DeBlasio gets heckled by police cadets in a graduation ceremony.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio was greeted with boos and jeers Monday as he addressed a ceremony for 900 graduating police cadets at Madison Square Garden. A section of the audience again turned their backs on the mayor, two days after hundreds of officers did the same at the funeral for one of the officers shot and killed last week.
As de Blasio remarked during a groveling speech Monday that the new officers will face problems they did not create, one heckler shouted, “you created them.”

Where is Police Commissioner Bratton in all this? He's supposedly a staunch DeBlasio ally. I'll repeat again: He should be summarily fired.

This groveling by DeBlasio in front of NYPD thugs and punk cadets is nauseating.

Zhang Monan — The Next Chinese Economy


Rebalancing, adding breath and depth to the domestic economy and becoming less export-dependent. 

Owing to its sheer size — China's economy became the world's largest on a PPP basis in 2014 — China seems headed toward global economic dominance. How soon this happens depends on how they handle this transition. China is still an emerging nation.

Project Syndicate
The Next Chinese Economy
Zhang Monan

In the unforeseeable future, India and China will vie for first place owing to their size and resources, both geographically and demographically. However, they could be overshadowed by Europe if the EU, or EZ federalizes. The US will almost certainly have to compete by joining forces with Canada and Latin America in some kind of economic zone, unless the US is able to retain global hegemony.

France 24 — Economist Thomas Piketty refuses France's highest honour

France's influential economist Thomas Piketty, author of "Capital in the 21st Century", on Thursday refused to accept the country's highest award, the Legion d'honneur, to criticise the Socialist government in power.
France 24
Economist Thomas Piketty refuses France's highest honour

Lee Fang — Blackwater Lobbyist Will Manage the House Intelligence Committee


More corruption influence in the good old USA.
After lobbyist-run SuperPACs and big money efforts dominated the last election, legislators are now appointing lobbyists to literally manage the day-to-day affairs of Congress. For the House Intelligence Committee, which oversees government intelligence operations and agencies, the changing of the guard means a lobbyist for Academi, the defense contractor formerly known as Blackwater, is now in charge. 
Congressman Devin Nunes (R-CA), the incoming chairman of the Intelligence Committee when the House reconvenes in January, announced that Jeff Shockey will be the new Staff Director of the committee. As a paid representative of Academi, Shockey and his firm have earned $80,000 this year peddling influence on behalf of Academi. 
In previous years, the House Intelligence Committee has investigated Blackwater over secret contracts with the Central Intelligence Agency. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. As Staff Director, the highest position on a committee for a staff member, Shockey will oversee the agencies that do business with his former employer.…
The role reversal, for lobbyists to take brief stints in Congress after an election, has become a normalized. In a previous investigation for The Nation, we found that some corporate firms offer employment contracts with special bonuses for their staff to return to government jobs, ensuring the paycut the receive for passing through the revolving door to become public servants doesn’t have to alter their K Street lifestyle. 
Other committees are also hiring lobbyists. Congessman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT), Darrell Issa’s (R-CA) replacement as chair of the Oversight Committee, just hired Podesta Group lobbyist Sean McLaughlin as his new Staff Director. McLaughlin’s client list includes the Business Roundtable, a trade association for corporate CEOs of large firms. Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) also hired a new chief of staff, Mark Isakowitz, who represents BP.
The Republic Report
Blackwater Lobbyist Will Manage the House Intelligence CommitteeLee Fang

John Amato — Pope Francis At Odds With GOP In 2015


Could be significant in US politics. It is certainly going to give the the social justice cohort a boost and make it more difficult for conservatives to represent some of their positions as based in Christian doctrine.

Crooks and Liars

Norman Pollack — Oh, Those Nasty Russians — Notes on Totalitarianism


A look at the growth in the direction of totalitarianism and imperialism in the US. And no, Friedrich Hayek, it's not the result of increasing socialism of the left but increasing fascism of the right that establishment Democrats have bought into.

Lars P. Syll — Kenneth Arrow’s take down of rational expectations

When you look at any experimental work not directly related to economics, but trying to test rational behavior in other ways, experiments have conspicuously failed to show rational behavior … Finally, there aren’t enough repetitions to justify rational expectations. The world is changing. We’re not really proceeding on a stationary basis.
Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Kenneth Arrow’s take down of rational expectations
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Daniel Little — John Levi Martin on theory


Sociological theory.

Why is sociological theory important. I consider economics to be a subfield of sociology, as did Marx as a precursor of sociology. Some view him as a co-founder of the discipline that emerged from this type of work. Institutional economists, following Veblen rather than Marx, also take this tack.

There are three major categories of science based on the type of subject matter: natural or physical, biological or life, and social or human. Economics is clearly a social science that studies a subset of human action and the behavior and interaction of homo socialis. Homo economicus is an abstraction that is fictive (imaginary) and useful only for making assumptions to develop simple models that aren't generally representational. The actual subject is homo socialis, with all the complexity that reflexivitiy and emergence involve, complicated by epistemic and ontological uncertainty.

Additionally, to the degree that economics is normative, and this is to a great degree, it also involves social and political philosophy, and to the degree it is qualitative, it also involves qualitative disciplines like the humanities. Economics is also also a policy science so in involves political science as well as social and political philosophy. Since economics is a human science it involves psychology, cognitive science, and evolutionary science. And to the degree it is practical in involves government, business, finance and related institutions, especially law.

Conversely, axiomatic economics has developed into a specialized branch of mathematics largely divorced from reality. Continuing in this direction doesn't seem advisable to me. Economics needs an overhaul from the foundations on up.

Understanding Society
John Levi Martin on theory
Daniel Little | Chancellor of the University of Michigan-Dearborn, Professor of Philosophy at UM-Dearborn and Professor of Sociology at UM-Ann Arbor

Andrew Lainton — Towards a Formally Defined New Economics


Andrew Lainton's suggestion for development of a consensus-based new axiomatic paradigm using Post Keynesianism, after the crash discredited the neoclassical axiomatic paradigm.

But is an axiomatic approach a suitable methodology for economics?

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
Towards a Formally Defined New Economics
Andrew Lainton

Dirk Ehnts — Association of German banks: loanable funds theory fails

The Association of German banks has released a press statement (in German) which is very interesting. According to a survey, Germans keep their wealth in the form of bank deposits at different maturities even though interest rates are low. This empirical fact invalidates neoclassical theory that says that savers save less when interest rates are low and more when interest rates are high. The typical savings schedule is upward-sloping in an interest rate/savings space. In reality, savings do not seem to depend on the interest rate as the amount of savings (income not spend) has not fallen in the last years when interest rates in the euro area went down to zero.…
econoblog 101
Association of German banks: loanable funds theory fails
Dirk Ehnts | Berlin School for Economics and Law

Chris Dillow — In Praise Of Complexity Economics


Good post summarizing complexity economics with many useful links.
The question is: why is complexity economics not more influential? 
One reason is that it requires different techniques. It can't be studied merely by problem sets (ugh) devoted to standard optimization techniques. Instead, it requires agent-based simulations (here are a couple of examples), laboratory experiments of the sort done by Charles Noussair among others, or close attention to history and the institutional and cultural settings in which markets operate. 
And therein lies a second reason why complexity economics is under-rated. For me, one of its big messages is that context matters. Emergent processes sometimes lead to benign outcomes and sometimes instead to inequality and inefficiency, and which turns out to be the case can hinge on quite small differences. The great economists of the 20th century - such as Keynes, Samuelson or Friedman - tried to offer a general theory. Complexity economics doesn't. 
There's a third reason why complexity economics is under-rated. It does not give us a means of foreseeing the future. Of course, conventional economics doesn't do so either. But the difference is that complexity theory tells us that such forecasts might well be impossible - which is not what the customer wants to hear. The best it can do is help us understand what has happened. And for me, this is good enough. As someone once said, "Economists have only changed the world; the point, however, is to understand it."
Stumbling and Mumbling
Chris Dillow | Investors Chronicle

My first podcast of 2015!

Here's my first podcast for 2015. Enjoy.

Stephanie Kelton,  Bernie Sanders, NYPD insubordination, Forex, disgraced Representative Michael Grimm and more.