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But as MofA put it, the real negotiations take place on the battlefield. What bargaining chip will Erdogan bring to the table?
Assad will have to cut a deal with the Kurds if he wants to hang on to the parts of Syria controlled by the Kurds. Perhaps a federation with a great deal of local autonomy, similar to what Russia proposed in Ukraine? Erdogan will not like it but what can he do about it?
About now, Putin and Obama are negotiating the outlines of a compromise personally by phone and in greater detail through Lavrov and Kerry as the West settles into the idea that he cannot overthrow Assad without getting into at least a scuffle with Russia.
Russia is OK with a compromise that suits Syrian sovereignty, the Kurds and Iranian (Shi'ite) interests. Most important for Russia is protection of the principle of Westphalian sovereignty and secular government that protects the rights of Christians and other religious minorities in predominantly Islamic countries.
The US is juggling more balls with the different and sometime opposing interests of its allies but the US is in the driver's seat.
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But as MofA put it, the real negotiations take place on the battlefield. What bargaining chip will Erdogan bring to the table?
Assad will have to cut a deal with the Kurds if he wants to hang on to the parts of Syria controlled by the Kurds. Perhaps a federation with a great deal of local autonomy, similar to what Russia proposed in Ukraine? Erdogan will not like it but what can he do about it?
About now, Putin and Obama are negotiating the outlines of a compromise personally by phone and in greater detail through Lavrov and Kerry as the West settles into the idea that he cannot overthrow Assad without getting into at least a scuffle with Russia.
Russia is OK with a compromise that suits Syrian sovereignty, the Kurds and Iranian (Shi'ite) interests. Most important for Russia is protection of the principle of Westphalian sovereignty and secular government that protects the rights of Christians and other religious minorities in predominantly Islamic countries.
The US is juggling more balls with the different and sometime opposing interests of its allies but the US is in the driver's seat.
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