Valery Solovey, the well-connected MGIMO professor, says that “an important discussion about the political future of Russia is now taking place among the elite” and that its members are united on three points and divided into three distinct groups on the basis of others.…
According to Solovey, the elite agrees on three points: first, that the current crisis will deepen, threatening the stability of the country; second, that the US, the UK and Germany now have as their goal “the overthrow of Putin” and will impose this view on “the entire Western community;” and third, that as a result, “confrontation with the West is inevitable,” although Moscow because of its weakness will seek to avoid an open clash.…
Instead of talk about opposing Putin, Solovey’s argument suggests, at least some are prepared to take even harsher measures in order to save him, his regime, and thus their own positions. If that is the case, then the notion that divisions within the elite necessarily work against Putin almost certainly needs to be revised.…Paul Goble is one of the most virulent and prolific anti-Putin propagandists. When he suggests that the US and UK strategy to overthrow Putin by internal means is wishful thinking, then it is pretty conclusive that it is a pipe dream. As I have been saying, the outcome in that case would be a much more anti-Atlantcist and conservative regime than the present one.
The three groups that Solovey mentions are well known to those who have been following this closely and that Goble seems to have missed testifies to his ideological blinders. The so-called liberal opposition that the Atlanticists have been touting to replace Putin have minuscule popular support in Russia and are identified with the Russian Mafia of the Yeltsin years that Putin brought to heel. What support they have is funded by the West, both government and non-government, and some former oligarchs that hanker for the good old days.
Window on Eurasia
Solovey on What Russian Elites Agree On and What They Don’t
Paul Goble
Here is another instance of getting it wrong. This time by an impartial Western expert, Paul Robinson. He doesn't seem to realize that the division among Russian policy makers is between those who support Putin's cautious approach in Ukraine and that of the hardliners who recognize that neither Kiev or the US will ever arrive at a solution anything close to what Russia wants. They want to Russia to exert more military pressure on Kiev by occupying Western Ukraine, which the Russian military could easily do. Putin has vetoed that so far but is ramping up Russia's military capability on the assumption that the US will eventually force Russia into a war that it does not want. Russia is signaling that no one will win this war since is is prepared to use nuclear deterrence to annihilate the West.
Irrussianality
Report on Donbass
Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa
Window on Eurasia
Solovey on What Russian Elites Agree On and What They Don’t
Paul Goble
Here is another instance of getting it wrong. This time by an impartial Western expert, Paul Robinson. He doesn't seem to realize that the division among Russian policy makers is between those who support Putin's cautious approach in Ukraine and that of the hardliners who recognize that neither Kiev or the US will ever arrive at a solution anything close to what Russia wants. They want to Russia to exert more military pressure on Kiev by occupying Western Ukraine, which the Russian military could easily do. Putin has vetoed that so far but is ramping up Russia's military capability on the assumption that the US will eventually force Russia into a war that it does not want. Russia is signaling that no one will win this war since is is prepared to use nuclear deterrence to annihilate the West.
Irrussianality
Report on Donbass
Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa
2 comments:
"of the Yeltsin years that Putin brought to heel. What support they have is funded by the West, both government and non-government, and some former oligarchs that hanker for the good old days."
Yeah the "good old days" when Yeltsin was in there... what a tremendous "good old" history that nation has yes.... and how about even before Yeltsin... oh wait...
?????
Tom you write as if that nation has some sort of long history...
Coming out of what they were caught up in isnt going to be some sort of flawless process right out of the gate...
Look at where they were just 25 years ago... I'll take it...
The USSR had a a military capable of challenging NATO, and they had the industrial base and technology to support it. This was inherited by the Russian Federation. The military capability was severely degraded and the industrial base was almost wiped out in the Yeltsin years. The Russian Federation was ready to disintegrate like the USSR.
Putin reversed that. Now the military is a world-class fighting force, Russia has re-established nuclear deterrence, and the industrial base is being revived. This is a huge achievement. The standard of living has also improved and corruption is being credibly addressed.
This would be happening a lot quicker and smoother they understood MMT. But it is happening anyway, since the Russians have understood that they are under attack by the ruling parties of the US, UK, and Germany.
Now a new alliance is forming with BRICS, soon to be BRIICS, with the addition of Iran. India likes to play the field but it's historical allegiance is with Russia, especially since the US is still arming Pakistan. There's also a battle going on to pry Brazil out of BRICS by installing a neoliberal government, as well as to reverse leftist success in the South in general. Argentina has already been checked off.
The US thinks it can do this in Russia, China, India and the rest of the emerging nations, too. Twenty-five years ago it looked rosy for this scenario. Now not so much.
Putin deserves a lot of the credit for this and this is another reason that he is so anathema in the West. It was really Putin that upset that apple cart, along with a lot of Western stupidity.
What is perhaps less visible is that Putin and Xi are both controlling the hardliners in their governments and militaries that want to match US confrontation with confrontation. Putin and Xi view direct confrontation as playing into neocon hands, but they are drawing lines, too. The US position is that only the US can draw lines.
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