Hmmm who would have thought... what do you know.... boy where are US consumers getting the munnie???? Hmmmmm....
(TIP: $40B of tax refund xfers the other day isn't going to hurt February either....)
Helpful sign markets aren't stopping consumers. Ret sales GDP input rose by most since May https://t.co/jAeUu0nHEX pic.twitter.com/goWch4ZrJH— Michelle Jamrisko (@mljamrisko) February 12, 2016
Oh and wait....hmmmm.... what you say there was a SURPLUS in January? Hmmmm.... What is going on???? Hmmmm...
U.S. budget deficit falls to lowest level since August 2008, Treasury reports surplus in January https://t.co/clthZ4HwuM
— Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) February 10, 2016
14 comments:
And $40b in tax refunds went out Wednesday. Flows have been restored. We're good!
"To the best of our knowledge nothing changed, even though while seasonally adjusted sales rose modestly by $800 million to $449.9 billion, on an unadjusted basis retail sales actually dropped by $112.7 billion with a "B."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-12/curious-case-strong-january-retail-sales-it-was-all-seasonal-adjustment
Mal,
"Retail sales, which excludes automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, in January rose a healthy 0.6 percent from December 2015 and showed an increase of 1.4 percent over January 2015, according to the National Retail Federation.
“The foundation for growth is there, and January’s increase is a step in the right direction for retailers.”
Matthew Shay
NRF President and CEO
“The foundation for growth is there, and January’s increase is a step in the right direction for retailers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Against the backdrop of an uncertain global economic outlook and challenges in the industrial and financial sector this is a solid development.”
“January's rebound represents the recent solid labor market performance, low energy prices and elevated savings rate that are key determinants of household spending and continue to support economic growth offsetting the industrial sector’s various challenges,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Friday that January retail sales increased 0.2 percent from the previous month and increased 1.4 percent above January 2015 unadjusted.
- See more at: https://nrf.com/news/retail-sales-increased-06-percent-january#sthash.zbR5RP53.dpuf
If you want to troubleshoot those ZH nut-job's math knock yourself out....
Matt,
I usually fade ZH when it comes to his endless crash calls, but I think they're on solid ground here. Of course, maybe the SA is correct, but I'm skeptical.
"his" ??????
Durden
BTW,
I'm still mildly bullish and have been for years. This latest shakeout has been orderly. I in no way think we're going to see the likes of a 2008 style blowout. Corrections, yes. They are healthy and buying opportunities, even if the Durden's of the world are right about Jan retail numbers.
....and the Fed needs to STFU about negative rates. Talking out of both sides of their collective mouths does not engender economic confidence.
Females over there Mal... (whole "Brad Pitt" thing....)
"Females over there Mal... (whole "Brad Pitt" thing....)”
Ha. How do you account for the gender that got us into this mess?
Ha! I've always been saying here that if they ever figure out what we have done we are all in BIIIIIIIGGG trouble!!!
;-) Gotta’ protect the package. ;-)
There is a tendency to ignore the credit cycle here, which is what is causing the trouble right now, and an exaggeration of vertical money effect. NIRP only going to make it worse.
Been fading the "market bottomed out, oil bottom" calls in early Jan, which were all incredibly wrong, the theme which I wrote about back then has played exactly that (tech crash, herd fleeing to safety, etc.).
The fact is that Global Dow already has gone down >20% since peak in 2015 May, destroying a lot of equity for the long only guys. Nevertheless, the fundamental imbalances (and poor corporate and government practices to prop up bubbles and have 'wealth' effects) of the economy still are there and only getting worse, which means political trouble and instability. Last year I doubted we would see recession in the US (and by extension in the eurozone as is now dependant on flows from USD zone) before the presidential, but now I think is a strong possibility, and permabulls are nervous.
Sure on every market you have short rallies, but the best case scenario is equities muddling through whole ignoring all other asset classes going down, hardly sustainable. OFC you cannot predict what idiots in CB's and governments will do, they may start to buy out ETF's and provide corporate welfare, but by isolating yourself from the rest of the economy (the one were enablers don't enjoy, like the 80% of the population) is only going to be worse in the long run along with a Marie Antoinette moment.
That said, oil is probably bottoming now, but this won't be good in the midterm, as we may end up in a situation where oil prices rise while the rest of the economy tanks.
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