Friday, November 11, 2016

Stephen Cohen — If Trump moves to heal ties with Russia, establishment will oppose him fiercely

You see, that’s the question we don’t know. In effect, I exaggerate only a little - Trump ran against his own party establishment. They didn’t want him as the candidate, they didn’t help him very much, and a lot of Republican senators and governors said they wouldn't vote for him. This is extremely unusual. So, you had a man who had the formal title of the Republican nominee, but who ran in many ways against his own party - so what happens now when he’s President? Do we assume the traditional American model - Republican President, Republican Congress ,Republicans get what they want? Or, is Trump going to find himself fighting with his own Republican Congress? It will depend on the issue.… 
One issue on which Trump was very different from Mrs. Clinton and from the whole foreign policy establishment, was on our relationship with Russia. We now - this is me speaking, not Trump - we are in a Cold War much more dangerous than the 40-year long Cold War that we fought and ended. There are three places where Russia and America could very easily suddenly be in a hot war. That’s the Baltic regions, that’s Ukraine and that’s Syria. Trump has said that he wants to do something about it to improve it. What he said is very fragmentary, but very different from what other people have said. He says he wants to work with President Putin, he said he thinks it would be great if Russia and the U.S. united to fight terrorism in Syria. He hasn’t said anything about Ukraine. These are pressing issues. 
If Trump were to move, and he shouldn’t do this publicly, he should begin privately but if he were to move towards a detente, as we used to call it, a reduction of conflict in a relationship with Russia and to open cooperation, let’s say, in Syria - he will find himself opposed by a fierce and powerful pro-Cold War coalition, Democratic and Republican, and including the media, here in the U.S. He will have to fight very hard. The other side of that story is, is that foreign policy is the one area where an American President can do things pretty much on his own. He doesn’t need Congressional support unless he wants a treaty. The question is, is Trump really going to do it, and you might ask, if President Putin is ready for this - I think he is! Whether Trump will now move - we’ll see.…
Will the US blow another historic opportunity?
RT
If Trump moves to heal ties with Russia, establishment will oppose him fiercely – Stephen Cohen
Sophie Shevardnadze interviews Steven Cohen,| professor emeritus at Princeton and New York University, and a contributing editor at “The Nation”magazine.

Sopho "Sophie" Shevardnadze is the granddaughter of former Georgian President and Soviet minister of foreign affairs Eduard Shevardnadze. She is fluent in Georgian, Russian, English, French, Italian, Turkish, and Japanese. — Wikipedia

2 comments:

Matt Franko said...

"So, you had a man who had the formal title of the Republican nominee, but who ran in many ways against his own party - so what happens now when he’s President? "

This is what everybody wants to know across all policy...

Tom Hickey said...

Something I haven't seen any of the pundits saying yet is that a president comes into office with a lump of political capital and he has to decide how to spend it on priorities.

In addition, this is a dynamic process in which political capital as the "mandate" received in the election depreciates.

So the question is not only what the new president will do based on campaign promises, but also what the priorities and time frame will be.

Trump himself may not have gamed this out, and he will no doubt consult with advisers on it based on shifting conditions.