Monday, November 16, 2020

What went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example. — Andrew Gelman

From the news articles about Cahaly’s polling, it seems that a key aspect of their method is to measure intensity of preferences, and it seems that Republicans won the voter turnout battle this yea....
This was predictable for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a far more savvy politician and better persuader than his opposition. Secondly, the Democrats are fighting an internal civil war  between tthe establishment and progressive wings. (The GOP already fought their civil war, and DJT and the populists won.) The result was greater voter intensity on the side of the GOP.

Intensity is a major factor, as activists know.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
What went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example.
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

22 comments:

lastgreek said...

" First, Donald Trump is a far more savvy politician and better persuader than his opposition."

I respectfully disagree, Tom.

So savvy that his WH press briefings on the covid-19 pandemic were basically free political ads for Sleepy Joe?

When Trump, in all seriousness, suggested that his coronavirus taskforce look into his idea of injecting oneself with bleach or stuffing a UVC light up one's orifice (I guess any orifice would have done since he wasn't specific), I figured that was at least a half dozen electoral votes Sleepy Joe's way ;)

And then there's Trump's base. Go ahead, try flipping a hillbilly state. A herculean task if there ever was one. Trump is disgusted by them and yet they still vote for the grifter. Because hillbillies :( (Also explains why you'll never, well not in the foreseeable future, have M4A.)




lastgreek said...

From Harry Crane, Associate Professor of Statistics at Rutgers University:

Abstract

We propose a market-based scoring method for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasts of the 2020 U.S. elections for President, Senate and House of Representatives. We demonstrate this method by evaluating the forecasts posted on the FiveThirtyEight website based on their performance against the prediction markets at PredictIt.


https://researchers.one/articles/Models-vs-Markets-Forecasting-the-2020-US-election/97212967bc124e2bf3af31a5

Since I am here,

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump · 2h

Try watching @OANN. Really GREAT!


Where does this guy find the time to watch tv?

And when he's not watching tv? Playing golf like he was the other day, what else.

From Golf News Net (GNN):

Donald Trump visited the golf course for the 296th time as President

Donald Trump paid a visit to Trump National Golf Club in Potomac Falls, Va. on Nov. 14, representing the 294th time the 45th President has visited one of his 17 golf clubs (and, for most of them, presumably played some golf) since becoming President on Jan. 20, 2017. He has now paid 296 visits to any golf course as President.

https://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2020/11/15/donald-trump-visited-the-golf-course-for-the-296th-time-as-president-121279/

You see, Tom, when you got the hillbillies solidly behind you? You can do anything -- even grab them by the...

Tom Hickey said...

You see, Tom, when you got the hillbillies solidly behind you? You can do anything -- even grab them by the...

That is integral to Trump's game. But isn't classifying 70 plus million voters as "deplorables" and "hillbillies"a bit unrealistic?. Yes, Biden solidly won the majority of votes and did Al Gore, but that is the booby prize in US politics. It's electors that count in the end.

Trump understand emotion, cognitive bias and all the other devices of rhetoric (sophistry), while the Democrats rely on "reason." Emotion trumps reason and evidence in persuasion every time. (pun intended) And emotion builds voter intensity.

And Trump has not lost until the electoral college votes. He still has a path to victory and being who he is, he is pursuing it vigorously. Gore wimped out. Trump has a history of never quitting and coming back if he loses.

Trump is upping the amps on intensity. The show is not over until the fat lady sings. I would not count DJT out yet, and if he doesn't win, he is setting himself up strongly for a return, Nixon-like, in 2024.

BTW, this is hardly an anomaly in the history of US politics. After all, the US did fight a civil war before its hundredth anniversary. The election of 1824 ended in Congress, with John Quincy Adams defeating Andrew Jackson in the House. This Trump's game plan now by denying Biden 270 electoral votes in the courts. Owing to the quirks of the US Constitution, he would win that vote, which is one vote per state and the red states outnumber the blue.

Many would see this as a coup, but it is perfectly legal, at least as these things go. The US has a weird political system, but that is the way the founding fathers set it up.

Peter Pan said...

With record vote counts for Trump and Biden, "intensity" wasn't one-sided.

The polls were fraudulent. Find out who is responsible.

Matt Franko said...

Dont worry if the courts give it to Trump the left is going to increase in intensity... but this just means they are going to wreck stuff and burn stuff... instead of doing anything constructive... they are not the constructive people...

Greg said...


“And then there's Trump's base. Go ahead, try flipping a hillbilly state. A herculean task if there ever was one. Trump is disgusted by them and yet they still vote for the grifter. Because hillbillies :( (Also explains why you'll never, well not in the foreseeable future,
have M4A”

Idk about the last part Greek, the state of Kentucky is absolutely overflowing with those Trump voters you mention and they are the most rabidly anti Obamacare Americans around, so what did the state of Kentucky do? Call it Kentuckycare and it’s popular as can be. These people can be triggered just by wording so all that has to be done is to say we are getting rid of Medicare for all and starting a new program, operated exactly the same way and call it Freedom Care. They will then go out and give death threats to any librul that doesn’t vote for it. They are quite easy to manipulate, Trump does it constantly.

Joe said...

"he is setting himself up strongly for a return, Nixon-like, in 2024" I don't get the Nixon return reference, it's a bit before my time, did he really contemplate running again?

But Trump will NOT run in 2024. He has dementia and will be far too gone by then. He's highly symptomatic. How can anyone miss that? He's not all that far from needing a legal guardian.

At best, he might be able to scam his supporters for another year, maybe two, that's already a stretch. His supporters aren't going to support someone who spasms and flails around more than Michael J. Fox does...

Trump has a far greater chance of going bankrupt again than he does of running in 2024.

Joe said...

and no, Biden won't be running in 2024 either...

Greg said...

That 1824 election ended in an electoral tie though Tom, or at least very close to one. This one was an electoral landslide😉

Tom Hickey said...

That 1824 election ended in an electoral tie though Tom, or at least very close to one. This one was an electoral landslide

So far, but those numbers are not yet locked in and the Trump team is contesting in court. If they lose there, then the only other option is creating some much confusion that it goes to state legislatures, where Trump wins.

Long shots, maybe, but "legal recourse" under current arrangements and Trumps history is using litigation to the limit. He will do so in this case, too, most probably.

But DJT is not alone. So far, the GOP is mostly on board with it. Those that don't stay the course will incur the wrath of the Trump base that now dominates the party. That is a strong deterrent.

Have to remember that politics is about power and this is a classic power struggle.

Tom Hickey said...

I don't get the Nixon return reference

JFK defeated Richard Nixon in the 1960 election. Nixon staged a comeback and won in 1968 and again in 1972. He was eventually forced to resign to avoid impeachment, removal from office, and possible prosecution for Watergate. It was apparently a plea bargain.

Much nastier than the Trump kerfuffle so far.

lastgreek said...

"The election of 1824 ended in Congress, with John Quincy Adams...

Good family the Adams's. Did you know, Tom, that he was fluent in French, like Benjamin Franklin?

Adams's didn't think much of Franklin. Thought Franklin was a pervert. Easy to imagine why since Franklin was a frequent patron of the Paris brothels.

You guys will enjoy this read :)

BEN FRANKLIN`S DANGEROUS LIAISONS
William Ecenbarger
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
May 6, 1990

Franklin Delano Roosevelt had Lucy Mercer.

Dwight Eisenhower had Kay Summersby.

John F. Kennedy had Judith Exner.

Wayne Hays had Elizabeth Ray.

Gary Hart had Donna Rice.

Benjamin Franklin had Anna-Louise d`Hardancourt Brillon de Jouy. And Madame Helvetius. And Margaret Stevenson. And Polly Hewson. And Madame Foucault. And Countess Diane de Polignac. And Countess Wilhelmina Golowkin. And Catherine Ray. And Georgiana Shipley. And Madame Le Veillard. And Madame Le Roy. And Countess Houdetot. . .


https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1990-05-06-9002070774-story.html

"Dont worry if the courts give it to Trump..."

Matt, you do a wonderful Rudy Giuliani impersonation. You got his "left-wing conspiracy" bit down pat :)

"But Trump will NOT run in 2024. He has dementia and will be far too gone by then"

Father had it, and he's slurring his words more now. Still, I prefer he suffers bankruptcy and jailtime, Joe, for his comeuppance.

PS: Should not have said "hillbillies"... especially since I am a big Beverly Hillbillies fan :(





Father had it. Still, I'd rather the Manhattan DA get him on tax e

Tom Hickey said...

Trump will NOT run in 2024. He has dementia and will be far too gone by then"

Won't deter him, and most of his voters either won't notice or won't care. (Not snark)

Peter Pan said...

Kentucky Fried Chicken Care... I'd vote for that!

Joe said...

He has noticeable movement disorders. I'm talking about the kind of dementia where you end up in a wheelchair unable to feed yourself... People will notice that sort of thing. He's already lost so much control (especially on his right side) he needs to use two hands to drink water. Even after being embarrassed about it the first couple of times, after making a big spectacle at his rallies about being able to still drink one handed, he goes and does it again on 60 minutes. He can't help it, and this is just one thing among hundreds of examples. He has good days and bad days, but the good days will be fewer and fewer as time goes on..

Matt Franko said...

Yo He couldnt hit a golf ball if he was having motor problems...

Joe said...

Judge for yourself. It's pretty clear. Muscle spasms, lots of speech problems, issues with walking straight, his right leg swings out funny. It mostly affects the right side of his body. It's not really a question whether he has something wrong or not. The only question is which exact condition is it... In one rally alone, the guy called him Donald "Prump", said he was nominated for a "Preace" prize, referred to arab sheiks as arab "sheep", said he'd protect the "sancghr" of life and said we'd put an astronaut on "Nars". It happens way too often to be normal slips of the tongue (and normal slips of the tongue don't have muscle spasms that occur simultaneously)... He hasn't hit a 300 yard drive in a while.

https://sites.google.com/site/jahufford/trump-neurological-symptoms

Peter Pan said...

And Covid wasn't strong enough to take him out.

Matt Franko said...

He just did 14 rallies in 3 days in four states going into Election Day... running on fast food and Diet Coke...

Biden putting lid in at 9:30 am and disappears for days between doses of some max dosages of cognitive pharma..,

lastgreek said...

For the maga cause, I can easily see Matt donating to the orange clown his lungs for transplant, let alone a kidney :(

https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/06/the-seven-signs-youre-in-a-cult/361400/

Joe said...

Biden's less than great cognitive ability is wholly irrelevant to Trump's condition.. Biden's brain is like jello, a structure-less mesh. Trump's brain is like swiss cheese, still has structure but it's full of holes.
How Trump did 14 rallies in 3 days is likely the obvious. Multiple times he's done press conferences earlier in the day half-comatose and then he's shot out of a canon a few hours later at his rally.. Could the neurological deficits be from drug side effects? Maybe, I dunno. Sure seems like there's left hemisphere issues going on.
All you gotta do is look at the clips. This is the brain equivalent of a jagged bone sticking out of your leg, doesn't take a doctor to know there's an issue.

Peter Pan said...

His supporters show up, and he went golfing. What's up with that?