Wednesday, May 12, 2010

CY Fiscal Trends in Major Treasury Spending Items

I've tallied totals of six major line items in the Treasury's daily statements for the first four months of this calendar year. Below is a table of the first four months for the last three calendar years for the six indicated areas of Federal spending:

The Social Security total for January 2010 is lower than the monthly trend, this is probably due to a calendar quirk in December 2009 that brought about $20B of spending forward into December. Adjusting for this would add $20B to the YTD total for 2010 and put the 2010 total at $725B.

For these four months, this adjusted YoY increase of $75B (annualized) represents about 2.1% GDP growth ($14.3T gdp).


googleheim said...

Carbon credits are purchased by big polluters.

Now I know why Art Lauffer is buying timber land in Kentucky - so he can keep polluting everyone with his deficit terrorism and turn around and say nothing about the subsizidation of European elitists and all that.

mike norman said...

Net exports are getting more negative, which will subtract from GDP, so the key question is how strong will personal consumption be? Households are spending out of savings now, which suggests that such spending is reaching the end-game, however, job growth is resuming and that's good. Only, we need a lot more jobs created than just several months' worth. Moreover, the y-o-y spending growth in the items you mentioned are decellerating.

googleheim said...

Matt / Mike :

maybe the Feds are being poked to open the swap lines to the ECB so that MacDonalds, Boeing, CocaCola and the other big multinationals who enjoy huge success with low dollars and high Euros have a chance to save their int'l business.

It's not a Fed thing, but a multinational corporation gimmick.

Matt Franko said...

You may be on to something.

I think the Fed doesnt want the dolr to get too high for some of the reasons you state. multinationals have alot of assets priced in Euros that would have to marked down if the Euro were to fall.

My hunch is the line in the sand is in the low $1.20's. if we get much lower here, my hunch is the Fed/ECB test the limits of their abilities to act as price setters of this exchange rate, it worked last time but that was due to dollar shortages in Europe and the Fed was able to provide them (boy did they!), I dont know if they will have the same ability due to Euro weakness this time.

The Fed seems eager to provde massive USD again here (the $30B line to Canada just stumps me at $80 oil) but I dont know if that is just pushing on a string. btw I heard a Canadian banker guy on cnbc yesterday just bragging about how successful the Canadian banking sector was in North America/world.