Friday, March 23, 2012

Iran oil exports fall as SWIFT starts to bite

Since Iran’s cutoff from the global financial payments system (when they were kicked off the SWIFT interbank system), Iran has been having trouble exporting oil. Their exports are now reported to be down 300,000 barrels per day. That is putting upward pressure on crude.

Moreover, all the talk of Saudi “additional production” is meaningless unless the Saudis officially cut their price. Rising Saudi output is nothing more than them selling into new demand for their crude; it’s not going to lead to a lower price unless the Saudis ACTUALLY CUT THE PRICE, which they’re not doing.

It’s a very sly move by the Saudis. They can allow prices to rise and blame speculators, while pointing to their increased output (making them look like the good guys), and no one will know that it is them who is setting prices higher. Until the Saudis officially cut price, expect crude to go higher.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Ive always been a bit confiused about this since Im sort of a noob...

If the price of oil in the commodities markets is ~$125 a barrel, is that the price the saudis are posting? Or is it their price plus adding the price of market forces?

Im a bit confused on how it all works.