Ian Welsh and Yves Smith on ideology and social change

Ian expands on his previous post, A New Ideology. 

How to Create a Viable Ideology
Ian Welsh

Naked Capitalism

The Coercive Power of Capitalism
Yves Smith

As far as causes go, I prefer Marx's materialistic analysis over Hegel's idealistic. It is not ideas that lead but historical conditions. Ideas are shapers to some degree but generally ideology follows as an explanation and justification of events. For example, Marx was completely wrong in his analysis of his times. He was convinced that revolutionary change would be provoked in Europe owing to capitalism's excesses. It actually happened in chiefly agriculturist and still feudal Russia and eventually spread to China which was organized on similar lines. Moreover, while Marx and Marxism were frequently appealed to by revolutionaries, the idea was those of others, chiefly Lenin, Stalin and Mao.

As a philosopher, I am all for vision and ideas. However, I also realize that history has a trajectory and is path dependent, and that historically ideas are iterative. Moreover, unpredictable external conditions are also formative, as I think that global warming is likely to be with all the challenges foreseeable and unforeseeable that will confront humanity as it enters the global age.

What is more significant that ideas is method. Ideas can result in rigidity, whereas the most successful methods in life are adaptive, and this requires agility and flexibility. Change is dynamic, and the ecosystem of which humanity is a part is complex. Fixed ideas don't handle emergence well. Yet, it is necessary to think things through thoroughly beforehand — but also developing a contingent approach.

It does seem that the present system is teetering and something else is about to arise to modify it if not entirely replace it. What this is is not yet defined and I greatly doubt that it will fit any pre-constructed ideology. Rather, its character will be defined by the level of collective consciousness of the people involved as they adapt to changing circumstances. Rather than constructing an appropriate ideology, the most successful of the competitors will those that master John Boyd's OODA loop — observe, orient, decide, act. 

Of course, strategy and tactics are for the purpose of implementing policy, and policy is the outcome crafting a vision based on values and ideas, as well as setting objectives and priorities. But this is a hierarchical approach characteristic of military operations and organizations modeled on the military, which has been the case since Roman times and the extraordinary success of Roman organization. 

It is more likely that the coming social change will be more spontaneous and unorganized, since organized resistance is much simpler to suppress by a highly organized and well-equipped force. It has already begun in this fashion is likely to continue that way at least until the decisive stage draws nigh.