A significant report released Monday in Australia entitled “Conflict in the East China Sea: Would ANZUS apply?” points to the risks that the country could be drawn into a war over the disputed Senkuku/Diaoyu islands, pitting China against Japan, backed by the US. ANZUS refers to the 1951 security treaty signed between Australia, New Zealand and the US in the wake of the Pacific War with Japan.
The paper reflects ongoing disagreements within the Australian political and strategic establishment over the wisdom of unambiguously aligning with the US “pivot.” The economic costs to Australian capitalism were underscored late last month when the Obama administration, on security grounds, pressured the Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s government to reverse an in-principle cabinet decision to join a new Chinese-backed infrastructure bank.
The report draws attention to the real and immediate dangers of war by detailing scenarios that could trigger a conflict in the East China Sea: a clash between Chinese and Japanese aircraft, a collision between a Chinese submarine and a US warship, and a confrontation between the Japanese coast guard and a Chinese tour ship. In each scenario, events rapidly spiralled out of control and posed the issue of an Australian government joining a war against China.
At the report’s launch, one of its authors, Professor Nick Bisley from La Trobe Asia declared: “It [conflict] is something that we think is very plausible. This is not some imaginary risk.…
Asked about a war in Asia, another critic Hugh White, ANU Professor of Strategic Studies, drew a comparison with the outbreak of World War I, saying: “It is a bit like what happened in 1914 and a series of miscalculations by either or both sides could produce a situation where both sides push forward into crisis expecting the other to step back and surrender and they end in a fight that neither side really wants. That is the kind of possibility that we really do face in Asia today and that’s one of the reasons why I think Asia is much more dangerous at the moment than most of us realise.”
WSWS
New warnings of war in Asia
Peter Symonds
Peter Symonds
3 comments:
The Australian PM, Tony Abbott, is not the sharpest tool in the tool shed. That's no secret.
Imagine the Yanks decided to impose commercial sanctions against China and Abbott went along with that. He would face a revolt by big mining companies, farmers, retail and maybe even the big banks; Sydney and Melbourne real estate markets would probably collapse.
The opposition Kevin Rudd faced when he tried to impose the mining tax would be child's play.
Abbott would not last one month and, no matter how dumb the man is, he can understand that.
ANZUS or no ANZUS, I'm afraid the Americans would be risking a nasty surprise.
Funny that, this morning Kerry and Chinese Foreign minister were smelling roses.
After Kerry's overtures, the Chinese foreign minister put out a statement,
"China and the United States can and should deepen cooperation on bilateral, regional and international level for the benefit of the two countries and their peoples," the spokesperson told journalists.
He also added that the existence of differences between the two sides, which were mentioned by Kerry, is "natural."
"China and the United States have different cultures, history, social systems and the state of economic development. It is natural that there are differences between us. We must respect each other and resolve existing differences in a constructive manner."
Hong Lei also said that China will continue to work with the United States to implement the consensus reached between the leaders of the two countries to adhere to the principle of "non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation."
This is also what Putin is saying. But both Russia and China are also drawing territorial lines in the sand that the US seems determined to cross.
Like other animals, human beings are willing to risk all over territorial markings, and here we are talking about nuclear states.
It's like the post said, no one wants conflict let alone all out war, but accidents do happen, and this is eerily reminiscent of the lead up to WWI.
Post a Comment