There is a big theme running through this discussion so far -- that of empirical success. Falsifiability means that empirical success is not trivial. Simplicity depends on your measurements. But you also want your theory to produce the results you actually see! As they say, nothing succeeds like success. This set of heuristics gives us what theory should look like:
Much more in this short post, and I suggest reading it if you are interested in scientific modeling. Jason Smith is knowledgeable about modeling in both physics and economics, math and mathematical modeling, and philosophy of science. This is a non-wonkish post about fundamental issues in economic modeling.
- Falsifiability. There should exist observations that your theory doesn't allow.
- Simplicity. Your theory should not be too complex to be falsifiable.
- Success. Your theory should not be falsified!
Information Transfer Economics
Falsifiabilité, simplicité, succès ... ou la mort
Jason Smith
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