New research supported by the United Kingdom’s Foreign Office and insurer Lloyd’s of London finds that, absent major changes, humanity risks a catastrophic collapse in its ability to feed itself by mid-century, due in significant part to human-caused climate change.
Last year, the United Nations’ “highly conservative” IPCC climate panel warned that humanity is risking a “breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes” on its current path of unrestricted carbon pollution. Many studies in the last 12 months have strengthened the scientific case (see this, for instance).
The new research is from the Global Resource Observatory, a project of Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) partnering with the UK government’s Foreign Office; Lloyds of London; a “coalition of leaders from business, politics and civil society”; the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries; and both the Africa and Asian Development Banks.Think Progress
The GSI group does business-as-usual forecasting using system dynamics modeling — arguably the only type of modeling that treats feedbacks and time delays well enough to even approximate what is coming. GSI Director Aled Jones explains that the group “ran the model forward to the year 2040.” The results were stunning:“The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”The “good” news: That only happens if humanity doesn’t actually do any serious planning for this outcome — and doesn’t do any serious reacting as it plays out. But homo sapiens isn’t a “brainless frog,” are we?....
New Research Warns Of Catastrophic Food Shortages Due To Unchecked Climate Change
Joe Romm
4 comments:
To promote austere budgets, the UK is removing subsidies for on-land wind turbines. All in All about 2500 will be removed and not built this year. The bigger problem is that business is being told to stop using fossil fuels and invest in these other technologies. But policy needs to be stable and supportive of the transition because these are long, long term decisions that take decades to make. If every time a conservative or liberal government is elected they dither back and forth on policy, it makes it very, very difficult to meet goals and actually keep making progress. The liberal politicians support NIMBY land owners that think turbines make too much noise. The conservatives think pollution is imaginary.
Two steps forward, then one step back, I guess.
A couple of Nukes, those tactical ones .... should mop up the problem.
No one cares. My local media (Washington Post / local tv networks) are full of the NBA draft & ongoing baseball games.
Interesting that Lloyd's of London is one of the sponsors of the study. This indicates that not only the world's militaries are picking up on the impending effects but also insurance companies. That suggests that some insurance will be getting more costly.
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