Most of the recent economic news from developed economies has been good. European growth, in particular, seems to have accelerated. Nothing I see in the economic data causes me worry. So I am cautiously optimistic that this upturn will last at least through 2018. So let me go through the data, my outlook and my concerns....Credit Writedowns
The global economy is hitting its stride right now
Edward Harrison
4 comments:
Wasn’t Ed just bearish?
Unlikely that he looked at Australia then
Here:
https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2017/08/edward-harrison-failure-of-trump.html
"But, since we are in the ninth year of this economic expansion, you have to believe we are at the late stages of the cycle. That means we should be actively asking ourselves what the US economy would look like if a recession started in the next 12 to 24 months.
And that’s where my concern is. US households are spending beyond their means to sustain even 2% growth (see here and here). What happens when US consumers are forced to cut back? The hope has always been that tax cuts or wage increases would come before consumers do cut back. But nothing on the horizon shows this will happen. And Donald Trump’s ineffectiveness as President makes robust wage growth and tax relief for the middle class even less likely."
Doesnt get much more bearish... wonder what changed?
The increased US government spending coupled with the wealth effect from equities (that concerns Ed)?
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