Federal retirement system govt securities fund has about $292B balance:
They way I interpret this situation, I think they can still issue up to this amount to public and put temporary IOUs in the Government securities retirement account and still remain under debt ceiling...
July savings (deficit cash basis) so far is 282b for the month so using that to estimate August non-govt savings then they can go about 1 month at current rate of UST issuance to the public using this authority without causing TGA to fall further due to a reduction in rate of UST issuance...
But once they reach this retirement account balance offset though then UST issuance rate will have to equal what is redeemed... to remain under debt ceiling... then at that point if fiscal withdrawals exceed fiscal deposits then the TGA balance will reduce $4$… causing at least a temporary rapid increase in Reserve assets at the Depositories… catastrophic this time? I guess that remains to be seen they appear to have a mitigation strategy this time with the RRP facility… bears watching in any case…
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