Sunday, June 5, 2022

June Options Expiration

 

If you are a monetarist you HAVE TO be bearish on the QT and have puts for June… HAVE… TO…  And what % of people are monetarist?  99%?




Open interest in SPY for June from a few days ago… everybody has Puts…



BofA warning of  “Summer of HELLLLLLL!”….




All these monetarists are bearish on the QT as “banks won’t have money to lend out!” …

Treasury redemptions start on the 15th:








8 comments:

RSG said...

Great observation, I was thinking same

NeilW said...

Just debating a monetarist.

They really do believe that the central bank is lending money to commercial banks who then lend it on.

When you point out that generally the entity lending money is the one that gets paid interest rather than paying interest, they just go back to repeating that the central bank is lending money to commercial banks.

It's the most amazing Watchtower Moment you can imagine. True belief in its finest form.

Matt Franko said...

They never make an adjustment Neil… have been trained otherwise…

Here this is what they literally learn: “ if the facts don’t agree with the theory then so much worse for the facts”

It’s like the nuns made them stay after schools and write that on the blackboard 1,000 times…

sths said...

Well it could still work out right? Large put buying causes market makers to short to hedge and causes markets to fall

Matt Franko said...

sths,

Yes.. yes,,

Thing is, if they now do the QT, will that be bullish?

iow the ONLY contrarian policy I see them doing com8 g up is the QT..,

iow will this contrarian policy be enough to create bullish conditions that cause a large short covering?

Don’t forget if the th7ng turns bullish all 5hose short market makers have to cover…

Going to be 8ntwresting..,

Peter Pan said...

Here this is what they literally learn: “ if the facts don’t agree with the theory then so much worse for the facts”

Is that the Socratic or Platonic method?

It’s like the nuns made them stay after schools and write that on the blackboard 1,000 times…

The Lesbian method?

Matt Franko said...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato

“Plato (/ˈpleɪtoʊ/ PLAY-toe;[2] Greek: Πλάτων Plátōn; 428/427 or 424/423 – 348/347 BC) was a Greek philosopher born in Athens during the Classical period in Ancient Greece. He founded the Platonist school of thought and the Academy, the first institution of higher learning in the Western world.

Plato is widely considered a pivotal figure in the history of Ancient Greek and Western philosophy, along with his teacher, Socrates, and his most famous student, Aristotle.

Plato was an innovator of the written dialogue and dialectic forms“

Today these people are trying to apply this dialogic methodology to technical disciplines…

Peter Pan said...

You don't get sarcasm?

"if the facts don’t agree with the theory then so much worse for the facts"

We're into King Canute territory.