How the war will end…
Gilbert Doctorow
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/06/03/how-the-war-will-end/
Ukraine – The Situation (June 3) (This analysis seems to be pretty accurate as far as I can tell and it indicates that Western militaries are quite aware of the situation, contrary to the propaganda in the Western media. It you are interested in details, see the Military Summary channel on YouTube or Rumble.)
Uwe Parpart
https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/ukraine-the-situation-june-3/
How Russia, And Putin, Are Weaponizing, Losing And Running Out Of ... Everything (snark)
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/06/how-russia-and-putin-are-weaponizing-losing-and-running-out-of-everything.html
Reminiscence of the Future
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues. Press
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/06/wrong-emphasis.html
Sitrep Operation Z: Seppuku
The Saker Staff
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-seppuku/
Sergei Lavrov: Sixth International Conference Russia and China: Cooperation in a New Era
Michael Hudson: Interview with the newly founded German magazine “ViER” (edited transcript)
http://thesaker.is/michael-hudson-interview-with-the-newly-founded-german-magazine-vier/
Michael Hudson on the Coming Global Fracture as Economic Orders Clash
http://thesaker.is/sergei-lavrov-sixth-international-conference-russia-and-china-cooperation-in-a-new-era/
Michael Hudson: Interview with the newly founded German magazine “ViER” (edited transcript)
http://thesaker.is/michael-hudson-interview-with-the-newly-founded-german-magazine-vier/
Crossposted at Michael Hudson's Blog as Ukraine a Trojan for Germany’s US dependence
https://michael-hudson.com/2022/06/ukraine-a-trojan-for-germanys-us-dependence/
Also at Naked CapitalismMichael Hudson on the Coming Global Fracture as Economic Orders Clash
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/06/michael-hudson-on-the-coming-global-fracture-as-economic-orders-clash.html
Yves Smith
Naked Capitalism
The War Situation Has Developed Not Necessarily to Ukraine or the West’s Advantage But They Plan to Negotiate When They’ve Turned Things Around a BitYves Smith
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/06/the-war-situation-has-developed-not-necessarily-to-ukraine-or-the-wests-advantage-but-they-plan-to-negotiate-when-theyve-turned-things-around-a-bit.html
54 comments:
Michael Hudson nails it.
He's the only voice on the left that has consistently and for many years now, laid out what has and is taking place.
The only question for me is will China and Russia simply morph into the United States once it has the power over smaller countries in their new orbit ?
What they are doing in South Africa doesn't look very promising. If what they are doing there is anything to go by.
Part 1
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6QyyF_p_dBU
Part 2
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=khzqxwBJ0js
The IMF Connection with the Ukraine Crisis
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=46DWQ6RVcVI
Is absolutely brilliant and exactly how I saw it after studying it over a few years. Ties in with everything I posted in the comments section on Billy Blog over the last 6 months.
Not an art degree in sight.
:)
Completely nails the war in Ukraine in my opinion.
1. China is state capitalist, which is just another ideological flavour of mixed economy.
2. They are believers in the idea that technology will make our high energy lifestyle sustainable.
In other words, China are us.
Proves yet again for the "trillionth" time that of course they know how it works.
That they have just set it all up to serve themselves.
Matt will call you a neo-liberal conspiracy theorist.
It's what these STEM guys do...
Highlighting the role of the IMF and what it was set up for after Bretton Woods and Why it was created.
Listing its objectives at that time.
Comparing that period to what it has now morphed into and "when" is all the evidence anyone would ever need, to show that they know exactly what they are doing.
Absolutely no "ifs" or "buts" about it.
Case closed.
ANYBODY who says it happened either by complete accident or incompetence lives in a parallel universe as far as I'm concerned.
They knew exactly what they were doing. History not only lists it all in a documentation fashion. History proves it beyond any shadow of doubt.
Incompetence or planned that's what it all boils down to, all things considered.
Take your pick. Pay your money and take a chance.
And Planned incompetence simply won't cut it. When you see where the profits go to and the massive inequality it produces.
All the historical evidence is on the "planned" side of the debate. Incompetence doesn't even get a look in.
The IMF Connection with the Ukraine Crisis video.
All documented as historical fact in the economic archives.
Will give enough to the guys who believe in the "Incompetence" side of the debate to chew over.
Don't expect them to stop chewing, Foot.
You just need to read The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes by Zach Carter.
There's enough evidence in that one book. Never mind the other gazillion historical records on the subject.
The Black Death: Lucy Worsley Investigates on BBC I player would fry their brains.
https://www.bbc.com/mediacentre/proginfo/2022/22/lucy-worsley-investigates
It takes a very different approach to the black death than anything before it. Is quite excellent.
It follows serfs from the historical records from that time. 3 generations of different families and shows what the black death meant to them in economic terms.
All written down as public record as they stood in front of the authorities and the Church. That creates a factual picture of how their lives played out.
I don't need convincing that malice is the cause.
I posted on Billy Blog the other day..
"A punchandjudy show to keep you entertained or a trainer running two horses in the same race.
Just line up all the left and right Western leaders up against a wall and take a picture of them and tell me the policy differences between them. It will take about 20 seconds.
Said from the very beginning it was only a matter of time before you were going to have to write that they have learned nothing from the pandemic. That article is just a few months away.
They know how it works, but every one of them will keep doubling down to try and hide the truth. The media are front running them and have already set the stage. All that’s missing are the characters that will deliver the message. From a teleprompter."
Listening to Mike's latest video Biden has just given the " message" and the public has been prepped for it by the media in advance. Same is happening in the UK and Europe and Australia dunno about Canada.
They will all deliver the same message in order to preserve the status quo and kill off any chance of real change.
Why both Summers and Joe Manchin were rolled out to act like a pair of performing monkeys.
Even If the so called left win an election anywhere they outsource the treasury job to the right wing of the party, or in Germany's case the left outsourced the treasury job to the party who lost the election the liberal democrats.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
What's the message this time?
That we need to learn to live without fuel, heat and food?
“ That they have just set it all up to serve themselves.”
You are talking about turd world nations … even turd worlders want access to the premier first world material products…
First world products are paid for in first world currencies.,,
How can turd worlders get the first world currency to pay for these products?
Woke Art Degree douchbags running IMF lends it to them with some sort of scheme identified whereby the turd worlders can sell some shit that they perhaps can squeeze out of their turd world nation…
Then they end up not even being able to do that and the deal goes bad…
And btw Hudson is a Monetarist.,,
Increase rates bigly, slash deficit and debt.
Same old, same old message.
It will spread across the world like a fart in the Plasmasphere.
“ Same old, same old message.”
Duh, Art Degree methodology 101, ie never make an adjustment…
Checkmate… again…
“ The German idealist philosopher Johann Gottlieb Fichte circa 1800 did say "If theory conflicts with the facts, so much the worse for the facts." The Hungarian Marxist Georg Lukacs in his "Tactics and Ethics" (1923) echoed the same quotation.”
Source: https://quotepark.com/quotes/1786579-albert-einstein-if-the-facts-dont-fit-the-theory-change-the-fact/
All it is Art Degree morons running amuck…
THIS … IS … SIMPLY… WHAT …. THESE… MORONS …. ARE …. TRAINED …. TO … DO….
Everyone who Warren spoke with who had their hands on the levers when he explained MMT to them said yes that's how it works.
So that alone is enough to debunk the "incompetence" theory.
Frank N. Newman, former Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Treasury even wrote a book about it.
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2013/10/former-dept-secretary-u-s-treasury-says-critics-mmt-reaching.html
And made several videos
https://m.youtube.com/results?sp=mAEA&search_query=frank+newman
And explained it on fox news
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ICkdaquB2vY
Not one person Warren spoke with at the treasury disagreed with him. Not one !
You refuse to read history. Continue to ignore the "adjustments" the IMF made and " when " and read the historical records. Adjustments have been made for years to make sure it serves the banks over the LONG term and the big donors of political parties and the rent seekers.
They made adjustments to the Labour unions and made adjustments to the public sector and made adjustments to social housing and healthcare. They made adjustments to Labour laws and introduced zero hour contracts. They made adjustments to bank lending. They made adjustments to the savings and loans. They made adjustments to the law won privacy. Made adjustments to the tax laws. Made adjustments to voting rights. They made adjustments via deregulation.
And a thousand more and who did the adjustments benefit ?
Adds even more weight to the " planned" side of the debate.
They are fantastic at making adjustments if it serves them.
Maybe it is the "real power" that you can't see ?
I dunno how, as you have had a front row seat watching the Ukraine crises unfold. Read all their propaganda and lies.
I struggle to see how you missed it all and what real power actually means.
Even if the incompetence side of the debate were true. And everyone who had their hands on the economic levers suffered from art degree itis. They are irrelevant they are told what to do or they don't get the job or have it for very long.
But Warren has already proven none of them suffered from art degree itis. The suffered at the hands of real power who serve themselves. Promote people who are willing to do their bidding. Undermine those who are not on script.
Why did Mike get thrown off the networks ?
Why wasn't he invited on anymore ?
He wasn't on message. Pure and simple.
That's How they get rid of you. Promote and advertise those who will "serve" them. There's nothing intellectual about it. They made the "adjustments" to make sure you only hear who they want you to hear. Turn them into a trusted face.
The media front run the government and prep the population for the decisions about to be made. They've been prepping deficit reduction since the very start of build back better. Biden has folded on everything he stood for and now delivering the true message for his donors.
“ Why did Mike get thrown off the networks ?”
He didn’t get thrown off he quit.,,
Couldn’t stand dealing with these morons any more.,,
Mike has Science Degree..,,
YO, What the fuck does warfare have to do with any nation’s domestic economic policy?
NOTHING..,
You and Tom are addicted to war porn.,,,
“ Adjustments have been made for years to make sure it serves the banks”
Idiot, the government FORCES the banks to make the loans and the loans are GUARANTEED by the IMF and the IMF is guaranteed by the governments that signed the imf treaty,,,
First position is the IMFs…
Otherwise the banks would NEVER make the loans to these pos disgraced subhuman turd world corrupt incompetent USD zombie nations in the first place..,
You morons think the turd world is being exploited that is the biggest joke… all the people there could drop dead tomorrow and nobody would even notice… they have nothing anybody wants or needs…
As I said, that's what these STEM guys do.
They are technically trained to identify and call out neo-liberal conspiracy theorists.
You're peeing into the wind, Foot.
Steve Grumbine vs Matt Franko on Pay-Per-View
Also available on Rumble.
Get your tickets now!
Warren proved beyond any doubt the STEM guys are wrong.
"Yeah that's How it works" and nobody disagreed with him.
Which proved beyond doubt they know how it works AND write books about it.
The STEM guys have already lost the debate.
So does human history.
They wipe out Greece from recent history as yet another example. They wanted everything there even their islands. Couldn't wait to get their hands on them. The IMF explained in detail what they wanted in Ukraine.
All the evidence is on the planned side of the debate.
Very little on the incompetence side.Believe
They completely ignore any evidence that refutes their claims.
STEM guys are like mainstream economists in that they make up political theories but don't look at the real data. Who prop up the elite.
in the UK You don't quit the media you stop getting the phone calls asking you on.
The experts don't have a contract they get paid by appearance or do it for free in the UK.
I was the very first MMT'r on the BBC and did it for free.
In the UK they phone you up and ask you what you think about a certain topic. If they are happy with what you say you get invited on. Exact same process for the politicians they ask them what they think about a topic.
Why they can appear on different networks as they are not contracted to just one.
The anchor the trusted face who does the interviews are the ones on a contract. In the UK they are the only ones who can quit.
In America Ritter said fox deliberately put him on a contract exclusively to Fox then immediately stopped asking him on. That's how they silenced him. So he couldn't go on other networks.
Mike may have quit if he had a contract but his phone probably stopped ringing as much as it used to, before he decided to call it a day.
What does warfare have to do with any nation’s domestic economic policy?
General MacArthur and the working class people of Detroit will be able to tell you all about it.
In fact there is a fantastic PBS documentary called wonders of Japan. Dozens of books on the subject. How the US forced Japan to change its domestic policies and how in turn these changes affected the US.
You know the story how manufacturing was sent abroad. MAGA always goes on about it.
South Korea also a dozen books written about it.
So war can change domestic economic policy very easily for the winner and the !oser.
To find out all you have to do is read history and look at the real data. Losers of wars are generally forced to run export to growth models. Send all their real resources to the winners. Who give them a $ with a coupon attached in return.
That changes US domestic economic policy. As the exporters to the US are taking some of the US domestic aggregate demand.
What does warfare have to do with any nation’s domestic economic policy?
Is a typical STEM guy position.
No history book no real data. Simply a parallel universe.
I was the very first MMT'r on the BBC and did it for free.
You were interviewed?
STEM guys are trained to reject politics.
Bad things happen when politics infect engineering projects.
STEM guys are trained to reject politics.
And vice versa.
I've told the story before about a theoretic physicist friend that ran for president to get out the idea that we either already have scientific solutions to the challenges we face or else know how to develop solutions using science.
He realized he had zero chance of getting elect or even media coverage so his strategy was to talk to politicians about this. But he had a hidden agenda, too.
He said his running did open doors and he got to talk to a lot of influential people. They all agreed with him about scientific solutions but told him that no one would ever get elected running on that. He was told, "It's about politics, stupid."
In a liberal democracy, politics is inherently dialectical owing to the structure of the system, which is based on political parties in conflict over policy options. Politics is much more about winning hearts instead of capturing minds.
Obviously, scientists would not be interested in playing this game, so they select out. That leaves us governed by "art degree morons" who only need to be artful about raising money and getting elected in the current political environment.
Similar with the media. Media corporations are not in business to inform but rather to gather eyeballs they can sell to advertisers, for which they use entertainment disguised as infotainment. They also have to get access to sources for which they use access to their media in return. Similar with advertising, too.
One would hope, however, that those in charge would hire qualified people to accomplish tasks, but that often does not happen owing to soft corruption, aka cronyism.
To find out all you have to do is read history and look at the real data. Losers of wars are generally forced to run export to growth models. Send all their real resources to the winners. Who give them a $ with a coupon attached in return.
This has it exactly backwards. It's the losers that win in the long run in the only war that really matters, which is the demographic war. Have a look at the MENA countries. Most of them are at or above replacement fertility rates. Meanwhile, across the Mediterranean Sea, they're struggling at around the 1.3 level, which demographers call the "lowest low". No society has ever recovered from that. How is going extinct a sign of success?
Statista shows the MENA fertility rate at about 2.77 which is well above the 2.1 replacement rate.
Total fertility rate across the Middle East and North Africa from 2009 to 2019
Births in Italy hit 160-year low and continue to slide
Demography is destiny.
The more they starve, the more kids they have.
Politics is much more about winning hearts instead of capturing minds.
How many hearts did the Biden campaign win?
Ordinary citizens cannot afford what politics is selling, so they get left out.
He realized he had zero chance of getting elect or even media coverage so his strategy was to talk to politicians about this. But he had a hidden agenda, too.
Was that due to structural barriers, or because he lacked wall-to-wall charisma?
There are two factors in US elections. First is appeal to a major faction of the party, in Biden's case the Clinton wing. Second is voters choosing the best of the worst, in this case anyone but Trump.
Was that due to structural barriers, or because he lacked wall-to-wall charisma?
Ran on a third party ticket. Third party presidential candidates have no real chance in the US.
Bad things happen when politics infect engineering projects.“
Exactly.,,
Tom got it from the Jesuits and Derek probably got it from English parochial schools.,,
I’ve experienced both and therefore can discriminate between which works for MATERIAL matters..,
Politics has infected economics, Matt.
You refuse to accept this, and blame the symptoms on holders of art degrees.
You assume incompetence in place of malice.
But "chimps pulling levers" (as I like to say), don't make policy.
There are two factors in US elections. First is appeal to a major faction of the party, in Biden's case the Clinton wing. Second is voters choosing the best of the worst, in this case anyone but Trump.
That begs the question as to which "wing" the Clintons had to appeal to. And so on, backwards through time. Can we not mince words and call it the establishment wing?
Biden as the best of the worst?
If you mean that Biden is worse than Trump, then indeed.
Americans are getting their money's worth - minus inflation.
There will always be a lesser-of-two-evils choice, as long as the electorate is ignorant enough to fall for that trick. 2016 was an exception, although not in terms of the popular vote.
This corrupt mess can't be fixed.
Democracy cannot function with an ignorant electorate.
Electoral politics cannot function (properly, ethically) with gerrymandered districts.
What options does that leave us with?
Hoping that a scientist or some other munificent soul will get appointed to power and save us from needless suffering?
I don't do hope.
I don't believe in backroom maneuvers. In the end, the psychopaths win. The munificent get RFKed and JFKed.
I would recommend ditching representative democracy in favor of the direct democratic method. No political parties, no voting, just one term appointments through sortition. Policy-making would be like jury duty.
If direct democracy doesn't work at the national level, try it at the regional, and then the local. Even a council of elders or hereditary chiefs would be an improvement over the shitshow we're witnessing.
You were interviewed?
Yes... For 25 minutes On one of the most popular day time shows in Scotland with high listening figures.
On BBC radio Scotland. The very first MMT'r on the BBC.
They contacted me and told me what it was going to be about. As soon as the interview started they did a complete 180 and went down a completely different avenue that they prepped me for down the phone.
To test me to see if I knew the subject. It is a hell of a lot harder than it looks when you have never done it before. On top of that they threw me a curve ball at the very beginning to try and throw me off balance.
I did alright though. Helped to change the narrative in Scotland. Was very proud to have represented the MMT community and not let them down.
They asked me on because I was a driving force behind these MMT Scotland events and helped to pay for them.
https://m.youtube.com/results?sp=mAEA&search_query=Mmt+scotland
They started off the interview by saying we know the budget deficit is the private sector surplus.
I thought like feck you do that is the first time in over 50 years you have admitted it.
They invited me on and prepped me on the budget deficit. Then took it right off the table in the first 2 seconds.
Went down the Zimbabwe, Weimar, Venezula route and government spending. Never touched on the deficit at all.
I got it back in though and took control of the interview on my terms not theirs.
There very last question was are you an economist. When I said no they stopped the interview right there on that point. As if to say an well then you are not an economist.
A few weeks later Warren was on the BBC world service.
When Richard Murphy heard I was going to be on the BBC talking about the deficit.
He contacted the BBC to try and get me kicked off and for him to do it. Even posted it on Twitter that if you are going to talk about the deficit to get him on the show.
After the interview Murphy never said a word not a peep. As I had covered most of the bases.
I didn't like him before that. Now I simply despise the man.
He did it because I made sure he wasn't getting invited to the MMT Scotland events. I made sure he wasn't getting anywhere near the place.
Months before the interview. When I was at the launch of the Gower initiative in London Murphy was there. Went over to have a chat with him and it was as if I was shit on his shoe. He's one arrogant, entitled piece of work.
Why I never liked him before all of this happened. Plus his view of Scotland being independent at the heart of Europe. His devotion to the EU. The Scottish independence movement love him because he preached independence. Which wasn't independence at all.
Why in the end I left and now support the union outside of the EU stance. The independence movement is run by a bunch of idiots. That can't see the wood for the trees. Murphy plays a huge role in that.
Tom and Derek think non technical issues can be solved technically…
Nonsense. The issue is distinguishing the technical and the non-technical and applying the appropriate methodology. BTW, this is an "art" in the ancient Greek sense of techne
Wikipedia on techne
Engineering, medicine (applied knowledge) are partially "science" (episteme) and partial "art" (techne). The science is the knowledge of principles, e.g., formulas. The "art" is knowing what knowledge to apply and how to apply the knowledge.
Can we not mince words and call it the establishment wing?
Because it is more complicated that that. It is true that there is a combined establishment that acts in unison for their interests over those of the non-establishment ("the little people" in Sen. Alan Simpson's terms).
But the establishment is not mono-lithic. There are factions that work to secure the major of the prize for themselves over the other factions.
The Clinton faction dominates the Democratic Party at present. These are the "liberals" (neoliberals, really). They are opposed by the "progressives." II put these terms in quotes since they have specific application that doesn't necessarily relate to the historical meaning of the terms.
The Trump faction dominates the GOP at present. Other factions within the parties vie with each other, sometimes to the degree that there is "civil war" within a party. We just saw this with the GOP when the Trump faction ousted the Bush/Reagan faction.
Since voters decide all the establishment factions have to appeal for votes to the non-establishment. Since elections are determined by campaign finance, politicians and factions have to appeal to donors.
This is basically how US politics operates.
Foot: Thank-you for an insider's background with regard to MMT in Scotland.
Tom: Trump and George McGovern were the only perceived threats to the establishment factions I can think of. The rest of the internal civil warring/whoring would make no difference for ordinary citizens.
Paul Craig Roberts wrote a while back that in the olden days, Americans would have marched to Washington and burned it down, if they had witnessed an equivalent level of corruption.
Perhaps he was being romantic?
Trump and George McGovern were the only perceived threats to the establishment factions I can think of.
Right. The combined establishment did their best to sabotage them. Successful in the case of McGovern, not in the case of Trump.
So they did their best to neuter DJT and were pretty successful at it.
And Trump turned out to be a dud.
From the 1970s until now, only two candidates were of 'concern' to the establishment. That doesn't sound complicated to me. This is a near foolproof system.
Burn it all down.
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