Ukraine SitRep - Additional Defense Lines, A Failed Counterattack, Weapon Deliveries
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/ukraine-sitrep-further-defense-lines-a-failed-counterattack-weapon-deliveries.html
Sitrep Operation Z0V: Back to Hot Steel Rain
The Saker Staff
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-back-to-hot-steel-rain/
A Son of the New American Revolution
Western Media and Military Analysts Still Dazed and Confused About the War in Ukraine
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
Consortium News
PATRICK LAWRENCE: The Imaginary War
Western Media and Military Analysts Still Dazed and Confused About the War in Ukraine
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/western-media-and-military-analysts-still-dazed-and-confused/
Consortium News
PATRICK LAWRENCE: The Imaginary War (more on the role of the NYT)
PATRICK LAWRENCE: The Imaginary War (more on the role of the NYT)
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/07/13/patrick-lawrence-the-imaginary-war/
Reminiscence of the Future
Oh, Boy! And Larry On Propaganda and Lies.
Oh, Boy! And Larry On Propaganda and Lies.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/07/oh-boy-and-larry-on-propaganda-and-lies.html
RT Produced Yet Another MGIMO Graduate Attempting "Analysis".
RT Produced Yet Another MGIMO Graduate Attempting "Analysis".
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/07/rt-produced-yet-another-mgimo-graduate.html
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues.
PATRICK LAWRENCE: The Imaginary War
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/07/13/patrick-lawrence-the-imaginary-war/
The New Kremlinology: Reading the New York Times — With censorship soaring and real reporting all but taboo, the major dailies have just one important function left: being a political signaling system
Matt Taibbi
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-new-kremlinology-reading-the
India Punchline
Putin’s summits next week will strengthen ties with Iran, Turkey
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://www.indianpunchline.com/putins-summits-next-week-will-strengthen-ties-with-iran-turkey/
This Proxy War Has No Exit Strategy (The "exit strategy" is Russia being weakened by "sanctions from hell" and ultimately defeated by NATO supplying its proxy force of Ukrainians and "foreign volunteers." How likely is that?)
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/07/14/this-proxy-war-has-no-exit-strategy/
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/07/14/the-empire-is-showing-more-and-more-of-its-true-face/
Caitlin Johnstone
Caitlin Johnstone
Ray McGovern on John Bolton’s Bragging About Coups (6 min video interview on RT)
Ray McGovern, co-founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, and retired 27-year career CIA whose tasks included preparing and briefing The President’s Daily Brief and leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch
Republic World (India)
US Consulate Tells Mumbai Port To Block Russian Ships; India Gives Scathing Response
RT — Question More (Russian state-sponsored media)
Macron issues warning on Ukraine (France will stay the course as conflict escalates)
https://www.rt.com/news/558985-macron-ukraine-world-war/
Biden reveals American goals in Ukraine ("strategic defeat" of Russia)
https://raymcgovern.com/2022/07/14/ray-mcgovern-on-john-boltons-bragging-about-coups/
US Consulate Tells Mumbai Port To Block Russian Ships; India Gives Scathing Response
Gloria Methri
https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/general-news/us-consulate-tells-mumbai-port-to-block-russian-ships-india-gives-scathing-response-articleshow.html
Macron issues warning on Ukraine (France will stay the course as conflict escalates)
https://www.rt.com/news/558985-macron-ukraine-world-war/
Biden reveals American goals in Ukraine ("strategic defeat" of Russia)
https://www.rt.com/news/558990-biden-russia-fail-ukraine/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
Beijing explains what ‘international community’ means to Western media (the West and its allies— Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian)
Beijing explains what ‘international community’ means to Western media (the West and its allies— Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian)
Azaan Javid
https://sputniknews.com/20220714/dalai-lama-says-he-doesnt-want-independence-from-china-1097317873.html
How China could leapfrog US chip-making bans
9 comments:
Second defensive line is about to collapse. Been crumbling over the last few days Tom.
Most units now on the second defensive line are way less than 100%. They've tried reinforcing them from other units but it didn't work.
Yesterday's Military Summary And Analysis and today's video covers it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A34oiuu0gdA
Not looking good, going from very bad to complete game changer. I don't think they have a 3rd defensive lne.
The leader of Serbia is going around saying that after Russia takes the next 4 strategic big towns they are going to stop and offer the West a deal. If the West refuse - full mobilisation.
They'll take half or all of Ukraine.
The blind spot did an article on the Matt Taibbi Kremlinology article you've posted up. Izabella Kaminska is developing a theory of her own.
https://the-blindspot.com/kremlinology-and-aesopian-language-western-edition/
New recruit? | Kiev frees notorious warlord sentenced for torture in Donbass - RT
https://rumble.com/v1c3rrf-new-recruit-kiev-frees-notorious-warlord-sentenced-for-torture-in-donbass.html
Yeah, Russia might want to take all of Ukraine and have it disappear as a nation.
John Bolton appears to be proud of his legacy.
A megalomaniac, with an emphasis on maniac...
The deflationary episodes of the past century started not because inflation was too close to zero but because of the popping of asset bubbles.
Japan
I keep going back to the thinking in my head that America stock market at this point has never looked more like the Japanese stock market in the late 80's early 90's.
In America the asset bubble created from the pandemic has never been more broad based. There has never been a soft landing when inflation gets above 4.5%. The FED is miles behind inflation and hiking instead of cutting. Hiking as about to go into a recession was crazy.
Whenever inflation gets above 5% it has never come down unless the FED funds rate gets above the CPI. Check the historical charts and there is no way the FED funds rate will get above the CPI the economy will break. Once inflation gets above 5% it has never been brought down without a recession. Probably because the recession was caused by the central bank.
If you look at the US Bankruptcies chart there hasn't really been any. Covered by cheap bank lending or savings. As the FED stays aggressive that's going to change.
So throughout American history there's 2 scenarios playing out.
1. Whenever inflation gets above 5% it has never come down unless the FED funds rate gets above the CPI.
2. Once inflation gets above 5% it has never been brought down without a recession.
Oil is up, $ is up and interest rates are up and this 3 card monte has always been terrible for earnings looking forward. Dropping earnings in 12 months time by 35%.
So defo a recession but when ?
I lot of people are trading on the here and now and as Mike says on emotion. What we have is a very broad based asset bubble that has started to deflate. Given what is going on Ukraine, given what is going on with China and their covid policy you could be looking at next year.
What could drag it out is the savings everyone is sitting on. The savings rate could depend how quick or How slow this thing plays out. But all the leading indicators housing, construction, trucking seems to point to next year when the real adjustment will happen.
What will the adjustment look like with such a broad based asset bubble. Is it going to be like Japen. Been saying it looks like Japan for a few months now. That is the stock market after this drop will give back most of its gains over the next 10 years.
I'm no expert and wouldn't even know where to begin but surely with such a broad based asset bubble combined with deflation that must take a while to play out.
All the doom and gloom now is not really the here and now but a forecast for 6-12 months forward. Late or early 2023. The FED stopping and cutting if the unemployment rate hits 6% seems to suggest they will inflate assets again without the pop they need and the next time will be even worse.
If I was a trader and made my living trading. I would love a pop up in the SP500 going into year end. As all the So called signal are either say early 2023 or late 2023.
If there is a pop up going into year end, main street investors will think it is all over. The worst is over. The reality being the worst is still to come in 2023 and beyond.
Leading indicators 6-12 month lag
Oil is up, $ is up and interest rates are up - 12 month lag
I'd monitor business and Household savings under a microscope as the savings are the buffer between it happening fast or slow. The no man's land of the grind that is happening.
If there is a pop up before year end I would be selling every SP500 decent rally in 2023.
Because of the broad based asset bubble and Japan's experience any large rally after 2023 I would sell looking at it as a 10 year trade. As the SP500 pukes out the gains over a longer time frame.
Obviously all of this would get ripped up and scraped if a huge fiscal stimulus was announced, war in Ukraine stopped, FED start cutting again before the end of 2023.
But if nothing changes I would use this strategy throughout 2023.
I probably why I don't trade as I would bein the poor house lol and lose everything. I've posted it up as a bit of fun that I can bookmark and come back to in 2023.
Stocks are short term sheltered by the belief that treasury prices might defend equity price losses.
As the masters of the universe rebalance their portfolios because that's what the millions of fund managers are doing rebalancing their risk.
But there is a real battle going on between Investors in short term Ts are having a fight with Investors in long term T's and it exposes stocks.
I'd also be selling every rally of the $ going into 2023.
John Bolton the coup de tat organiser.
Really?
I would have thought he would struggle to put his socks on in the morning?
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