1945
Supporting Ukraine For ‘As Long As It Takes’ Is Not a Strategy
Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis (USA ret.), Senior Fellow and Military Expert for Defense Priorities
A Son of the New American RevolutionSupporting Ukraine For ‘As Long As It Takes’ Is Not a Strategy
Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis (USA ret.), Senior Fellow and Military Expert for Defense Priorities
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/supporting-ukraine-for-as-long-as-it-takes-is-not-a-strategy/
Poland’s Puzzling Support for Ukraine (historical backgrounder)
Larry C. Johnson | CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering, formerly Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (1989-1993, and CIA operations (1984-1989)
https://sonar21.com/polands-puzzling-support-for-ukraine/
Biden’s I2U2 summit diminishes India
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service and former ambassador
https://www.indianpunchline.com/bidens-i2u2-summit-diminishes-india/
“UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting – Neo-nazism and radical nationalism (another backgounder)
http://thesaker.is/un-security-council-arria-formula-meeting-neo-nazism-and-radical-nati/
´Rape Europe´ is next, stupid (the European leaders are the useful idiots enabling the Anglo-American strategy that requires Europe and Russia to be kept apart instead of creating an economic bloc that could undermine Anglo-American primacy. Everything is a about Anglo-American global hegemony as the British-American Empire that is the successor to the British Empire. This is pretty widely recognized other than by the European "useful idiots" and Europeans will pay the price for it.)
Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
http://thesaker.is/rape-europe-is-next-stupid/
NYT Continues To Report 'Strikes On Civilians' That Somehow Happen To Hit Military Targets
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/nyt-continues-to-report-strikes-on-civilians-that-somehow-happen-to-hit-military-targets.html
Ukraine – the situation (July 15, 2022)
Uwe Parpart
Reminiscence of the Future
About Borisov's New Post.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/ukraine-the-situation-july-15-2022/
About Borisov's New Post.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/07/about-borisovs-new-post.html
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/07/oh-drama-oh-gadgetry.html
Reminiscence of the Future
No Comments...
No Comments...
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/07/no-comments.html
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues.
Andrei Martyanov, former USSR naval officer and expert on Russian military and naval issues.
Consortium News
Matt Kennard interviews the former president of Bolivia
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/07/15/evo-morales-uk-role-in-coup-that-ousted-him/
18 comments:
Gents,
As you know this $ strength has been bothering me. Not just a twinge in my knee or a gut feeling but We have this $ milkshake theory being pushed by every expert out there. It has been picked up by everybody in social media.
Sounds like milkshake mania to me. Tulips don't even get a look in.
Hikes bearish
Budget deficit, trade deficit bearish
Inflation bearish
For me the last place you want to be is short gold and long $ and a could chance the FED increases bigly at the next meeting.So I went back to look at this analysis from Sept 2020.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4373173-u-s-dollar-dxy-bottomed-support-from-u-s-capital-account-initiates-bull-run-which-may-last?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ainstablog%7Ccontent_id%3A5753818%7Ccomment_id%3A92870747
The capital account forecast was just so accurate for 2022. So accurate to be absolutely incredible from 2 years out. I decided to ask Robert Balan what his thoughts were for the $.
His response and was very kind enough to provide me with a chart is in the comments section here.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/910351-robert-p-balan/5753818-initiating-longer-term-bull-equity-etf-positions-for-weisshorn-fund-buying-back-all-gold-gc#comment-92870747
" The US Dollar should be coming lower for a while Derek "
So not only are the basic fundamentals against the $ but Roberts models are also showing weakness. Boy are these accurate.
All these macro guys and the milkshake gang are going to get 🔥
His models show that yields are going to keep turning lower and crater by early Aug and the capital account that operates with a lag in the models have started to show real weakness.
Which also means there might be a bump up in equities by year end.
This is going to show up in foreign exchange reserves I'm tracking.
Short $ is where it is at and So many are going to get shafted.
The $ milkshake theory that social media now believes has to be the equivalent of those famous Time magazine covers just before a crash. When taxi drivers were buying tech stocks just before the dot, com crash.
Derek:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/japan-s-kishida-orders-restart-of-up-to-nine-nuclear-reactors
If Europe does the same kind of thing I thinks it would be bearish USD…
ie These nations going back to domestic energy production…
"As you know this $ strength has been bothering me."
Strong relative to what though?
There is no strong or weak, just relative pricing.
Everybody is getting rid of all other 'inside' money and going to the dollar because that's what their Bibles say. However when you get there you can't get rid of it in aggregate for 'outside' money.
The guy selling you gold gets dollars. And they hold dollars. They don't buy Yen, and they don't buy goods and services.
Where's the buying goods and services or swapping to another currency to buy goods and services coming from?
The idea of a capital account and a current account is a fundamental mental mistake. In reality it's all the same thing. Financial entries are best seen as just another export or import that people choose to buy - just like an order of widgets.
HTETEOTW Chapter 3: Energy, Complexity, and Civilization - Sid Smith
https://youtu.be/NZn9LLbpbCQ
"The idea of a capital account and a current account is a fundamental mental mistake. In reality it's all the same thing. Financial entries are best seen as just another export or import that people choose to buy - just like an order of widgets."
So what are the " units" used for these transactions and how do you measure them to find the relative price?
United States foreign exchange reserves v's Euro
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=unitedstaforexcres&v=202206251005V20220312&url2=/euro-area/currency
United States foreign exchange reserves v's Pound
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=unitedstaforexcres&v=202206251005V20220312&url2=/united-kingdom/currency
United States foreign exchange reserves v's Yen
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=unitedstaforexcres&v=202206251005V20220312&url2=/japan/currency
Please look at these graphs and tell me what you see. Everybody says it is never about the quantity it is all about the price.
Look at these graphs the US foreign exchange reserves. The quantity of US foreign exchange reserves are the driving force behind the Euro, Pound and Yen.
What do you see ?
Is the quantity of the US foreign exchange reserves the " units " of these transactions that can be measured to determine the relative price ?
The graphs are screaming yes. When they don't move together I see that as the speculation part of the story. Speculators have broken the link between the two. They better get out of the way because the Euro, Pound and Yen no matter what, will follow the quantity of the US foreign exchange reserves.
What do you see ?
Are these graphs telling you anything about imports and exports and what people want to buy. Are they telling you anything about the relative price or FX?
I think they are shouting it. The change in the quantity of US foreign exchange reserves lead the FX. They drive it.
Are these graphs
Showing the transactions of both the capital and current accounts which are just the same thing, the transactions of imports and exports, the buying and selling of goods and services and can be measured ?
Are they screaming yes ?
US foreign exchange reserves v's $
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=unitedstaforexcres&v=202206251005V20220312&url2=/united-states/currency
The destruction of US foreign exchange reserves are the driving force behind the strength of the $. That's the reason the $ is So strong.
So what is the story behind the destruction of US foreign exchange reserves what has caused them to tumble ?
What story needs to be told for US foreign exchange reserves to start increasing again. What would the increasing of US foreign exchange reserves sound like ?
What would the increasing of US foreign exchange reserves sound like ?
Or are we watching a lag ? Is everything we watch in the markets a lag because of the way they collect the data ?
A quarter lag, a 6 month lag, a 12 month lag, a 18 month lag nothing shows up immediately or is happening today. Why psychics try to predict a year to 3 years forward.
The idea that the budget deficit increased today so the stock market went up to day blows my mind. I've no idea where that came from Because it it were true we would all be gazillionaires. That was a change in the narrative I never saw coming. I believe Mike has unwittingly been sucked into it. Never used to talk like that and always had a 6-8 week lag.
The budget deficit has gone up so the market is up I just can't believe it. Sorry but just can't accept that theory.If nobody understands MMT and can't see what Mike sees why would the stocks go up. Everybody would have to understand and everybody what have to see what Mike sees for that to happen. The 6-8 week lag was supposed to give everyone else a chance to catch up.
So what lags are going to show up that increases US foreign exchange reserves ?
Balan says the capital account lag is about to show up.The same thing as Financial entries, best seen as just another export or import that people choose to buy - just like an order of widgets. A different picture is about to reveal itself.
The 10Yr Yield begins a choppy topping out process and perhaps roll over for good by 2nd week of August. His models have the 10 year on a bit of a string, maybe a week out at times but always gets the turns of the 10 year 100% correct.
Disclaimer: Maybees aye, Mathews naw
No idea if it is true or not But intrigued by it and trying to put a model together in my head.
1. If US foreign exchange reserves are the driving force behind the $,pound, Euro and Yen.
2. A lag can predict which way the US Foreign exchange reserves move either up or down.
What will that mean ?
There's a 95% chance it is all complete BS. 5% chance of being awesome. Not going to find out unless I watch the whole thing unfold.
Looking at all of those graphs above.
In the FED data release on the Friday at the end of the month
federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm
Row 5 moves
Moves up again the $ will weaken.
If it is a big move up it is going to shock the shorters.
If it is a small move up the shortest might not even notice and keep shorting which only adds to the excitement.
Row 5 on this table
federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm
Is the real data that produces those graphs above.
"So what are the " units" used for these transactions and how do you measure them to find the relative price?"
Rolls Royce Engines - Oil.
Etc, etc.
The quantity of US FX reserves isn't the push. It's just the balancing item that drops out as a result of banks enabling the inductive financial circuit.
Your FX markets are way to perfect for me Neil.
No room for speculation of conjecture.
Your no fun man.
:)
Or bad behaviour like the £ dropping from 1.55 to 1.12 just because of a vote on brexit. That never made any rational sense either.
I see the $ right now as that drop in the £. Not driven by perfect markets, driven by zombies.
These 6 seasonal inflection points of the 10 year are upon us.
Pivot ↓ #1 3rd week in Jan.
Pivot ↑ #2 mid Mar.
Pivot ↓ #3 May 5,
Pivot ↑ #4 mid Jun.
Pivot ↓ #5 July 21,
Pivot ↑ #6 2-3 week in Oct.
These are all driven by the Fed's "trading desk" operations.
The big boys are expecting the July pivot down to last throughout August. It leads different risk assests. Could freshen things up a little bit.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4310185-risk-aversion-sets-in-falling-yields-oil-u-s-dollar-collapse-gold-rise-signal-trade-news
Keep an eye FX reserves to see if it arrives before the shorters notice. Plus all the macro signals are bearish on it. Politically I'd imagine a lot of leaders would be happy to see the $ ease a bit anyway. Will bring the price of oil down with it.
Win , win for everybody.
As you know I'm no expert and it could all be complete BS. I've no skin in the game but really fun to find out.
None of these front runners think Rolls Royce or oil. It is 10 year and patterned behaviour linked to it That's their bible.
Let's see if $ and oil down If this pivot in the 10 year last the length of August. I can catch it in the FX reserves before the shorts.
If Mikes zombie trader was still up and running it would have made $ thousands in the last 18 months.
"No room for speculation of conjecture."
There's plenty of room for speculation. The whole edifice is a 85 to 95% speculation which drives the 5%+ of actual activity. All FX activity is some entity quoting a rate at which they will *create* a currency relative to another. All those creations then net off as we go up the tree.
But that's no more relevant than the amount of reactive power required in an electrical circuit because of the change in the apparent power vs the true power as the power factor changes over time due to load shifts.
What we see in the aggregate is emergent behaviour. The power triangle is a better analogy than anything else I've come across.
Promised myself I would never get involved in financial markets ever again after the long gold trade during the 9 rate hits cycle from 2016. Nearly gave me a stroke.
I'm seriously contemplating now that I am more relaxed and have a bit more head space joining up with Balan and Alan Longborn and get right into the guts of trading the 10 year.
Just completely ignore the patterned behaviour that is supposed to happen afterwards and completely ignore the options and futures markets. Learn how to trade just the 10 year and nothing else. Manage the risk and staking as these guys have it on a bit of string. Throw myself right into the inner workings of it it like I did with MMT all those years ago. These guys will keep me right.
You can just trade it on your phone as it is on all the good trading platforms like Oanda.
What Salmo does
https://seekingalpha.com/user/7143701#comments
Never lost a 10 year T trade for over 40 years.
Just need one last push to do it as that gold trade haunts me like a ghost that I can't shake off.
I've followed them for 3 years and chatted with them and they know exactly which of the seasonal inflection points to fade and which ones are going to be decent as the inflection point gets nearer.
They use the Elliot wave principle that Balan wrote a book about for FX.
https://sacredtraders.com/product/elliott-wave-principle-applied-to-the-foreign-exchange-markets-by-robert-balan/
And by speaking with other front runners in the investment banks in Switzerland and what they see. Robert used to work for a few of them before going on his own.
If the stars align and all the cross checks have been completed and the signals are flashing green they pile into futures.
All I would want to know from all the dials and disco lights on the flight deck of the enterprise is the next seasonal inflection point a goer or not.
Not interested what happens inbetween the inflection points. Just 6 trades a year a quick in and out to top up the pension. Spend the rest of the year going fishing and abroad.
That's the plan just need to find the courage to jump in.
Whatever happened to earning money the old fashioned way?
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