Deficit is too small? Consumer spending rose most in six years.

Consumer spending rose 1 percent last month after a flat reading in March, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Incomes were up a solid 0.4 percent, matching the March gain. Wages and salaries, the most important component of incomes, gained 0.5 percent.

Where are the "deficit is too small" people? When will they admit that they are wrong? Do you keep on saying, for years, that there's going to be a recession? How is that useful?

We have had it correct the entire time with our analysis of flows. I use flows almost exclusively in my MMT Trader report.

It's all about flows. You don't even know what the deficit is going to be until the government spends first. You don't even know how much total taxes will be paid.

It's flows.

I love this...some NYSE trader says "we won't see new all-time highs anytime soon." Bet against him! Flows are strong!!

You gotta bet against this guy. His view is based on what? Looking at charts? Market "action" whatever that means?

My view is based on the ONE THING that definitely CAN power this market to all-time highs, and SOON, for that matter and that is fiscal flows. They're really starting to ramp up now.

Bet against the pessimists.

And, oh yeah, for all you deficit watchers...the deficit is rising.

Who made this call? I did!

Back in January when the market was selling off I said that it would end up to t be a major bottom for the year. In early February when the interruption of IRS tax refunds was rectified, I issued a "Buy, Buy, Buy" recommendation and the market literally took off the day I said that.

No one else out there made these calls. In fact there were some terrible calls, like the RBS "catastrophic selloff" call that I said would go down as the worst call by by any forecaster ever made (at least this year).

How did I do this? Do I have a crystal ball? Well, yes and no. I have been looking at flows. I have been talking about flows. Without question this has given me insight into the markets that have been far more prescient than those looking at anything else, including and especially, deficits.

This blog has been more accurate than any other source of market or economic information out there. It's something to think about. We're growing and I am pleased. We have a lot of really intelligent, thoughtful, followers and contributors and commenters, but why we don't have a million readers a month is beyond me.

I guess you don't find diamonds lying around in the street. That's what makes them valuable.

Stock picking plus MMT

When you understand MMT, particularly the flows as we do and then you know how to pick value stocks you can do very well. Indeed, you will relish market declines rather than fear them.

Take my stock picking course tomorrow and I will teach you that approach. MMT, flows, and value stock selection.

Here is a coupon for $100 off the price of the course

coupon: $100OFF

Go to the registration page and put that code in to get your $100 discount.

When you register I will send you a link where you will be able to connect tomorrow.

We crushed it here at MNE! Sorry, no one even came close.

First I want to address a post I put up here the day of the conclusion of the Fed meeting when I said the stock rally (that day) wouldn't last and that we'd stall.

Well, that didn't happen, obviously.

However, that shouldn't diminish the fact that I said here, here, here, here and here (and probably a lot more places, but I am too lazy to look) where I said you gotta buy stocks and I gave you the reason: flows.

Two things: the flows are back and market sentiment is now shifting to very bullish.

The market is in a sweet spot now with sentiment aligned with direction (and fundamentals). It's going a lot higher and the only chance you'll have for a correction will be when the Fed raises rates. And it will. When that happens there will be some sort of bearish knee-jerk reaction and you'll have a chance to buy, however, by that time the stock market could be significantly higher.

By the way, remember all those people who were panicking and saying "sell" and there would be a catastrophe? Remember the RBS call? They were all completely and utterly wrong.

The "low hanging" fruit is probably gone. Maybe not. Depends on your definition of low hanging. I like really low hanging, like when people are selling like crazy. That's when I buy because it's like the idiots are just giving you their money. Take David Einhorn's money, remember?

There could be a "low hanging fruit" trade right now and that's shorting Treasuries. Even the idiots now think the Fed will never be able to raise. (After years of telling us how rates were going to skyrocket.) Short Treasuries. NO ONE is talking about that except, you guessed it, right here on MNE. Like, we always scoop everyone.

Which brings me to the economy. If you are thinking recession because the deficit is too small, forget it. No chance. The flows are big and this stock market rally, which will continue, will boost confidence and spending.

The people with the forecasts based on deficits for the last three years should just man up and throw in the towel.

Once again we got it all right here by looking at flows. It's all about flows or, mostly about flows anyway.

Oh yeah, how about the "oil bottom" call that I made back in January? Maybe a little early, but the market is 30% higher now. Not bad.

And what about the dollar going down? And gold rallying? Franco with metals prices bottoming, too. Jeez, I almost forgot those.

I swear, this site should have a million visitors a month. It's crazy that we don't.

Like I said, I must suck at marketing.

I told you to buy the dips

You can listen to others who have been wrong for three years running, worried about the size of the deficit or, you can follow us here when we tell you about far more important flows.

I told you yesterday to buy the dips.

I told you there would be no recession.

I WILL TELL YOU when to get worried, but it's NOT NOW.

No recession. Q4 GDP revised up. Flows tell it all, as we have been saying. Deficit based forecasts have been wrong, wrong, wrong.

How many times do we have to say it? Matt and I have been saying over and over and over that these deficit-based forecasts are stubborn and wrong and it's all about the flows. And we've been right.

With $4-trillion-plus and rising (year-over-year) there won't be recession. Slow growth, perhaps, and that's because of the drag from lower capex in the energy sector, however, it's being offset by higher consumption.

The deficit-based forecasters have been wrong for three years running. If, five years from now, the economy goes into recession because of some unrelated reason, are all of you going to say that the deficit-based forecasters "called" it?

Come on.

Recession a done deal though probably (hopefully) shallow

What the hell happened????

Stocks and the economy were starting to recover from their late Q4-2015, early Jan induced swoon, but then around mid January something happened.

The IRS compute glitch, Obamacare and further tax refund problems, Russian IRS hacking and fraud concerns, whatever, and flows have gotten knocked for a wallop.

We went from being $31 billion y-o-y in Federal spending on Jan 20 to now being -$5.2 billion under: a loss of over $36 billion in flows in a few weeks. People, businesses are going to feel that.

If the economy were growing at 4.0%, I'd say no big deal, but with growth at a meager 0.7% and sentiment as bad as it is, stocks crashing, that's about all she can take.

GDP is going negative for a quarter (hopefully), but possibly more.