Saturday, September 19, 2020

The China Climate Challenge — Scott Moore


"What are the prospects for renewed U.S.-China cooperation on climate issues?" the author asks. Low. China is not going to give up growth any more than the US is.

No matter. The US and China are decoupling. So it is a moot point.

The world will have to live with the result, which are not limited to climate change.

The US and China, along with Russia and Iran, are preparing for kinetic war (they are already engaged in hybrid warfare— while engaged in a pandemic.

The Diplomat
The China Climate Challenge
Scott Moore

See also

America’s worsening climate change problem is as polarized as its politics.
AP
Underwater and on fire: US climate change magnifies extremes
Associated Press

Hospitals Serving the Poor Close as Investors and Electeds Refuse to Rescue Them — Jordan Rau

Founded 168 years ago as the city’s first hospital, Mercy survived the Great Chicago Fire of 1871 but is succumbing to modern economics, which have underfinanced the hospitals serving the poor.
This is not only an inner city issue, but also a rural issue.

Truthout
Hospitals Serving the Poor Close as Investors and Electeds Refuse to Rescue Them
Jordan Rau

Pompeo threatens to light the fuse in Persian Gulf — M. K. Bhadrakumar

Historically, this is a situation analogous to the infamous 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident in the Vietnam war, which was a fake event that the US used to commit the first ground combat units in Indo-China and initiate a massive bombing campaign....
Wag the dog's tail?

India Punchline
Pompeo threatens to light the fuse in Persian Gulf
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service.

also

Sputnik International
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Chief Vows to 'Hit' Those Responsible For Soleimani’s Death

also
On September 15, 1970, during a twenty-minute meeting in the Oval Office between 3:25 pm and 3:45 pm, President Richard Nixon ordered the CIA to foment a military coup in Chile. According to handwritten notes taken by CIA Director Richard Helms, Nixon issued explicit instructions to prevent the newly elected president of Chile, Salvador Allende, from being inaugurated in November—or to create conditions to overthrow him if he did assume the presidency.
Newly declassified docs.

PopularResistance.Org
‘Extreme Option: Overthrow Allende’


Stephen Cohen Has Died. Remember His Urgent Warnings Against The New Cold War. — Caitlin Johnstone


RIP Stephen F. Cohen, Professor Emeritus of Russian Studies, History, and Politics at New York University and Princeton University

 Stephen F. Cohen was fierce opponent of a new cold war with Russia.

Caitlin Johnstone — Rogue Journalist
Stephen Cohen Has Died. Remember His Urgent Warnings Against The New Cold War.
Caitlin Johnstone

The Vineyard of the Saker
We have lost a real giant (Stephen F. Cohen has died)!
The Saker

See also
The Russian leader recalled that the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 forced Russia to start developing hypersonic weapons
TASS
Work on Avangard complex comparable to USSR nuclear project - Putin

Also at TASS
Trump claims Russia created hypersonic missile after receiving info about it from US

also
After the long stand-off against communism, victory seemed as total as it was sudden. But the west has since fractured and is now losing prestige and influence—does the reversal expose a moral defeat?
The US has traded soft power for hard power. It's a bad bargain.

This is a good read.

CCI
HOW THE WEST LOST…Prestige and InfluenceAnatol Lieven

The Roots of American Misery — James K. Galbraith

Among recent inquiries into the sources of American discontent, one finds many simplistic diagnoses based on dubious cliches, but also deep insights that look beyond headline economic indicators and conventional wisdom. And yet analyses that address root causes and offer meaningful solutions remain few and far between.
Project Syndicate (subscription required)
The Roots of American Misery
James K. Galbraith | Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations and Professor of Government at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin


Towards an Ideal Form of Government (Version 4) — Frank Li


Ideal government is a synonymous with utopia, meaning "nowhere." "Utopia" is close to "eutopia" meaning "good place." Sir Thomas More coined it and apparently intended it as a pun to suggest the paradox (or contradiction) of the ideal and real. Is an ideal state even possible to realize?

If "ideal state" is understood as realizable as an end-state, it is likely impossible, history so far being cyclical. But as horizon to be pursued, it is a worthy goal, to be realized by reducing systemic dysfunctionality and increasing systemic functionality. A principal challenge is reconciling individuals and the collective.

Frank Li, being a native-born Chinese and naturalized American and longtime resident of the US, present in interesting comparison of the Chinese and American systems of government and points out the superiority of the Chinese system from a systemic vantage.

But he admits that neither system meets the ideal, even if the Chinese system is more effective based on measures of systemic functionality. Of course, some would question that it is. Moreover, as China becomes more capitalistic, its issue also increase. America's problem is that it is both hyper-capitalistic and "bourgeois liberal," which highly politicizes the selection process and also introduces corruption based on the influence of wealth as an avenue to power.

He does bring out a key point in political theory and organization–selection of leadership. China's system is much closer to the corporate hierarchical meritocratic system that was developed from the military model that Rome exploited to conquer much of the known world at the time.

econintesect.com
Towards an Ideal Form of Government (Version 4)
Frank Li | Chinese ex-pat, Founder and President of W.E.I. (West-East International), a Chicago-based import & export company, B.E. from Zhejiang University (China) in 1982, M.E. from the University of Tokyo in 1985, and Ph.D. from Vanderbilt University in 1988, all in Electrical Engineering

See also
Dalio: I wouldn’t say [capitalism is] broken as much as I’d say it has problems that have to be fixed. As I said, I’m not ideological, I’m mechanical. I look at everything operationally like a machine and what has been shown is that capitalism is a fabulous way of creating incentives and innovation and of allocating resources to create productivity. All successful countries have uses for it. For example, communist China has chosen capitalism, which has been essential to its growth.
But capitalism also produces large wealth gaps that produce opportunity gaps, which threaten the system in the ways we are seeing now. Wealth gaps give unfair advantages to the children of rich people because they get a better education, which undermines the equal opportunity notion. As the number of people who get equal opportunity diminishes, this reduces the possibility of finding talented people in that population, which isn’t fair and undermines productivity. Then the have-nots want to tear down the capitalist system at a time of bad economic conditions. That dynamic has always existed in history and it’s happening now.

The capitalist system is based on profit-seeking being the resource allocation system, which generally works well but doesn’t always. So, capitalism and capitalists are good at increasing and producing productivity to increase the size of the economic pie, but they’re not good at dividing the economic opportunity pie. Socialists are generally not good at increasing productivity and the size of the economic opportunity pie, but they are better at dividing the pie....
We have to be in this together. The system needs to be reengineered to do this....
One of the greatest problems is that everybody’s fighting for their cause. When the causes people are fighting for are more important to them than the system that binds them together, the system is in jeopardy. This seems to now be happening. Everybody has their cause and they’re almost losing sight of the overall picture. Democracy depends on compromise. It’s the notion of compromise and working together and being able to have a negotiation to get what the most people want rather than have one side beat the other. 
Caution: Ray Dalio apparently doesn't understand the contribution of MMT. In looking at the role of government debt historically, he draws no distinction among monetary systems. However, this could be fixed by changing is concern over inability to pay to inflationary bias that affects expectations and influences the exchange rate. Furthermore, RayDalio doesn't mention the effect of ZIRP on asset bubbles that further increase inequality and unequal opportunity, thereby exacerbating social unrest.

In short, Ray Dalio diagnoses the problem but doesn't understand the system mechanics and dynamics well enough to propose a good path toward a solution from the MMT perspective. He is caught in the dilemma of "sound finance" and "capitalism" versus the need for redistibution to address systemic dysfunction in a liberal system.

Jonathan Burton

See also

Gridlock.

Axios
Schumer: "Nothing is off the table next year" if Senate GOP moves to fill Ginsburg's seat

also

Truthout
With the Passing of Justice Ginsburg, Democracy Just Got Harder, Again
William Rivers Pit

also

AlterNet
Will Republicans stand by their own statements, or join McConnell in the most profound hypocrisy?
Mark Sumner

This is actually a reflection of the position of the founding fathers, who narrowly circumscribed the franchise to white men of property, a group that was the time predominantly Protestant Christian. In this sense, the US was established on the basis of European bourgeois liberalism and it has remained so. Now as the demographics shift that condition is being challenged and naturally this gives rise to opposition. So expect more conflict, division, and ensuing social dysfunction.

GOP’s Strategy for 2020 Election Looks Like an All-Out Assault on Voting Rights

28Articles – Truthoutby Alex Kotch

Yanis Varoufakis — Why we need a Progressive International that must plan for today and for beyond capitalism

Our era will be remembered for the triumphant march of a Twin Authoritarianism in whose wake the vast majority of humanity experience unnecessary hardship and the planet’s ecosystem suffers avoidable climate destruction.

I am not asserting that the president is a fascist, but I do think that neo-fascism is on the rise under the rubric of nationalism and populism. This how Mussolini and Hitler's rise to power began and it should be a wakeup alarm that all is not well in the world.

I don't lay blame on either US political party for this since it began some time ago, and its roots can be traced to the Truman Administration and the establishment of the CIA under Avery Dulles. After leaving office, Truman admitted it was the worst mistake he made.

This has progress to vast inequality in wealth and concentration of power at the top, which factions of the elite are now fighting among themselves over. To protect this distortion of liberal democracy, a totalitarian surveillance state with global reach has been established through "five eyes" (the combined intelligence services of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and NZ under US leadership.

The US domestic security force has been militarized and coordinated under a "department of the interior" called DHS. The US never had a department of the interior similar to other repressive states previously. The dysfunctionality is revealed by the incarceration rate, the conviction rate, extra-judicial "justice," and the privatization of prisons, turning justice into a for-profit institution. Add a double-stand of justice to this, and you get the picture. It's not pretty.

Perhaps most seriously from the political vantage is the suspension of constitutional rights and civil liberties since 9//11 in a supposedly ongoing emergency. That is almost twenty years ago. Add that to endless undeclared war by war power granted to the president and the US is most of the way there in the slippery slide to neo-fascist dictatorship.

Fascism was defined by Mussolini as corporate statism. With corporate control of the government through state capture by legalized bribery, along with the growing power of the military-industrial complex about which Ike warned, the US has reached this mark as well.

Moreover, this is a bipartisan syndrome that affects both the Republican and Democratic Parties. Therefore, there exists no viable alternative at the voting booth that would challenge the status quo, and there is no coalition on the horizon with the popular support to do so either.

In addition, the existence of a strong administrative state coupled with the "deep state, which are committed to preserving current policy, makes any significant change difficult to impossible under present conditions.

This is a disturbing trend that has lead to the potential for an authoritarian regime to take power in the US and in effect terminate the republic, as happened in Rome. "

It can't happen here," should now be changed to, "don't let it happen here."

Econospeak
The Danger Of Fascism With The Death Of RBG
J. Barkley Rosser | Professor of Economics and Business Administration James Madison University

also

The latest in "crowd control." Chemical is apparently either insufficient or outrĂ©. Tear gas is illegal for military use based on the Geneva Protocol of 1925 that the US signed on to in 1975, but with qualifications. One of the exceptions is for domestic crowd control. Talk about twisted logic.

Zero Hedge
Military Confirms It Mulled Deploying Experimental 'Heat Ray' To Protect White House
Tyler Durden


Friday, September 18, 2020

Sputnik — Google Removes India's E-Commerce Payment Paytm App After Policy Violation

Paytm is India’s most valuable startup and claims to have more than 50 million monthly active users. The app is one of the most used in the country for e-transactions...

Sputnik International
Google Removes India's E-Commerce Payment Paytm App After Policy Violation

Julian Assange trial: the mask of Empire has fallen — Pepe Escobar

Here, Murray reports the exact moment when the mask of Empire fell, not with a bang, but a whimper:
“The gloves were off on Tuesday as the US Government explicitly argued that all journalists are liable to prosecution under the Espionage Act (1917) for publishing classified information.” (italics mine).
“All journalists” means every legitimate journalist, from every nationality, operating in any jurisdiction....
The Vineyard of the Saker
Julian Assange trial: the mask of Empire has fallen
Pepe Escobar

See also

Recall that the US urged the "protestors" on in HonKong when they were conducting a violent civil uprising against the Hong Kong government (not the Chinese government).

Compare this present situation to the treatment of Occupy tasked to the Department of Homeland Security to coordinate and militarized police to prosecute. Also Ferguson. The list goes on.

Rodger Mitchell

See also

Extra-legal global enforcement of US diktat.

Reuter's
U.S. plans to enforce U.N. sanctions on Iran with its own action
Arshad Mohammed, Michelle Nichols

also

NEO
NATO’s Slow-Motion Blitzkrieg Eastward
Ulson Gunnar


China And Russia to Join Forces in Space, Set up a New Satellite Internet Network — Drago Bosnic

China and Russia have started the realization of a joint space program aiming to set up a network of low-orbit satellites for the purpose of making high-speed Internet available to as many users as possible, Maksim Akimov, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, said in a statement.…
Akimov also stated that the cooperation between Russia and China in the matter of space projects will also be broadened and that it would include cooperation on navigation systems in the near future. He added that the two countries will also sign an agreement on the joint deployment of stations for Russia’s GLONASS and China’s BeiDou space-based navigation systems.
Fort Russ News
China And Russia to Join Forces in Space, Set up a New Satellite Internet Network
Drago Bosnic

Cliodynamics is Not “Cyclical History” — Peter Turchin

What my colleagues and I do is Cliodynamics, which is very different from typical cyclical views of history. “Cyclical history” suffers from two problems. First, mechanisms producing cycles are either entirely missing, or inadequately specified. There is almost never an explicit mathematical model that would clarify these mechanisms. Second, cyclical theories in history are not subjected to empirical tests with independently gathered data. It’s all retrospective eyeballing together with “Procrustean” forcing of the historical record to fit the postulated cycle by stretching in some places and cutting off a bit here and there. For a specific critique, looking at the Strauss-Howe cyclical theory, see my post The Prophecy of the Fourth Turning.
Cliodynamica — A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations
Peter Turchin | professor at the University of Connecticut in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, the Department of Anthropology and the Department of Mathematics, and the vice president of the Evolution Institute.

See also

Beyond the mainstream — David F. Ruccio

In this post, I continue the draft of sections of my forthcoming book, “Marxian Economics: An Introduction.” This, like the previous two posts, is for chapter 1, Marxian Economics Today.
This post is on the history of economics.

Occasional Links & Commentary
Beyond the mainstream
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame.

Review: 'The Deficit Myth' – two wrongs don't make a right — Adam Booth

It should be stated from the outset that Kelton (like Keynes) is not a socialist, but a liberal. There is not one mention of socialism throughout the entirety of The Deficit Myth. Similarly, at no point does the author suggest that capitalism should be replaced or overthrown.
Indeed, the title of Kelton’s book gives the game away. Her aim is to argue against austerity, not to fight for socialism. Her target audience is not a radical one, but a liberal one. Like Keynes, she is looking to convince the elites, policymakers, and intellectuals, not workers and youth.
Usually I don't link to criticism of MMT that doesn't advance the debate, but in this case other relevant issues are also involved, namely reaching an audience that so far has resisted MMT when adapting the MMT viewpoint would, or could at least advance, their goals. Many don't yet seem to grasp this, so further education is needed.

Ultimately, the question of reform turns on how to get from here to the "there." "There" needs to be defined and a plausible path to in proposed as an action plan.

MMT never promised to create a socialist economy, so the critique that Stephanie Kelton doesn't deal with this is moot. This is beyond the scope of MMT.

A socialist system that uses "money" has to deal with it, too. MMT actually provides the analytic and theoretical basis for that in viewing currency as a public utility and subject to public policy.

There are various types of both capitalism and socialism as economic systems, and feudalism as well. To the extent that currency plays a role in them, MMT provides the basis for dealing with this issue in any type of monetary production economy.

The review completely misses the implications for a JG in transforming a capitalism based on "sound finance" and favoring capital as a factor of production over labor and the environment. MMT provides the basis now for transforming neoliberalism into social democracy as a step toward democratic socialism.

This trajectory means moving from favoring capital as the necessary condition for growth to integrating all factors of production, recognizing that the economy is a subsystem of the larger system, society, and prioritizing people's welfare over private profit.

The post may make some Marxists happy but it offers little toward advancing the debate. "Revolution" is a tactic that leaves many questions open. It is not an action plan.

Still this point of view is increasingly shared by some, and to gain political traction with progressives,  especially "workers and youth," MMT strategy is going to have to take these constituencies into account, which to a degree is already happening.

See, for example, the following bog posts by Bill Mitchell:

In Defense of Marxism
Review: 'The Deficit Myth' – two wrongs don't make a right
Adam Booth

"Communist" China is no exception after opening up and liberalizing, which some view as overly capitalistic in its effects.

SCMP
China’s university students escape online to rail against the nation’s growing inequality
Sidney Leng

Sputnik — Traditional Arms Suppliers 'to be Pressured' as India OKs National Security Clause in Defence FDI

In August this year, India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh announced an embargo on the import of 101 types of defence equipment worth $47 billion to boost domestic industry. The Defence Ministry revealed that a budget of $7 billion has been set aside for domestic capital procurement in the current financial year.

The Indian government, which increased the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) cap in defence sector investments to 74 percent under the automatic route this past May, said that such investments will be subject to scrutiny due to national security concerns.
A press note released by the Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) said that foreign investment in the sector is subject to security clearance and the guidelines set by the Ministry of Defence.
India is apparently creating its own military-industrial complex in increase national security by achieving greater self-sufficiency. More "military Keynesianism" to stimulate the economy?

Sputnik International
Traditional Arms Suppliers 'to be Pressured' as India OKs National Security Clause in Defence FDI

Thursday, September 17, 2020

Links 17 Sep 2020


Summary of the view of Jon Kofas, retired professor of history, specializing in international political economy at Department of Sociology, History, and Political Science, Indiana University Kokomo.

Sputnik International (DJT apparently wants to get the US military out of the region and arm the Sunni countries against Shi'ite Iran by selling US weapons. What could go wrong?)
Washington Uses Abraham Accords to Maintain Dominance, Isolate Iran & Contain China, US Prof Says

also

NEO
How China is Unwinding the US’ Middle East Supremacy
Salman Rafi Sheikh

also
Arab leaders understand that relations with Israel provide access to US Empire and all that comes with it, including much desired US-made weapons and other perks such as security and economic cooperation.
Colonization.

Mint Press News
Why Arab Leaders Are Suddenly Groveling at the Chance to Normalize Ties with Israel
Miko Peled

also

Change "Jewish" to "Zionist," and note that not all neocons are Jewish although they are "Zionist". Judaism is a religion, and Jewishness is an ethnicity. "Zionism" is a political position associated with hard-line Israeli government dominance in the Middle East. It's complicated.

The Unz Review
New Ambassador Attracts the Usual Enemies: Doug Macgregor Feels the Wrath of the Jewish Lobby, Philip Giraldi
Philip Giraldi, former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer, now Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest and founding member of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
(Cross-published at Strategic Culture Foundation

also

Laughable after Brussels all but destroyed the EU with neoliberal policy.

TASS
EU meddling: MP castigates Brussels’ call to scrap amendments to Russian Constitution

Moon of Alabama

TASS
Russian scientists create chip that accelerates development of 6G networks

TASS
Foreign powers seek to start new wave of color revolutions in Asia — Chinese top diplomat

Zero Hedge
Russia's Foreign Spy Chief Says US Is "Stage Managing" Belarus Unrest
Tyler Durden


Epoch Times
China Poses "The Greatest Threat To World Order": UK Military Intel Chief
Alexander Zhang

TASS
Russia, China won’t play by Western rules, says Lavrov

Get ready for the US to weaponize space if it hasn't already.

The Epoch Time
China, Russia Have "Weaponized Space": US Defense Secretary
Zachary Stieber

also

"Civil war" maybe an overstatement–I don't think we are near there yet, but things could get ugly in the case of a severe recession. But this is what it looks like abroad, which is rather ironic if not funny given the many attempts of the US to effect regime change externally, often through civil unrest leading to "color revolution." But this is not so much a revolt against the existing government but diametrically opposite world views held by a divided nation, leading to social dysfunction and political paralysis.

Oriental Review
The USA On The Brink Of Civil War
Thierry Meyssan

also

How long before Huawei catches up in chip manufacture? I'm betting faster than anticipated and the trade war will end up backfiring in this area as China becomes a major advanced chip producer as well as consumer. Yeah, it's a huge challenge, but China will throw what it takes at it, like a do-or-die Manhattan project.

Sputnik International
Shockwave of US' Huawei Ban Hits Technology Sector

also


also

Sputnik International
Trump Says Will Soon Sign Executive Order to Promote Patriotic Education










The Case for a Job Guarantee (Spanish) by Pavlina R. Tcherneva—Reviewed by Carlos GarcĂ­a HernĂ¡ndez

Book Review by Carlos GarcĂ­a HernĂ¡ndez on the occasion of the publication of the Spanish version of the book by his publishing house Lola Books.
Brave New Europe Carlos GarcĂ­a HernĂ¡ndez

Politics is an American industry — Steve Randy Waldman


Good observations, as characteristic of SRW.

I would add that many assume that economic models are general descriptions of reality, including those that build them. But that is not the way they function, since reality is much more complicated and often complex, whereas models are simplifications that function to assist thinking about the real world and its goings-on. 

Models are general descriptions of ideal "worlds" that are used to compare thinking about complicated and even complex matters in terms of getting some handle on it. They can be useful if their limitations are recognized, but often, they are not, or are swept under the rug in discussion.

Every model has to be evaluated in terms of 1) usefulness (pragmatic criterion) and 2) scope and scale (representation). Often, economy of expression leads to over simplification, for instance. The scope of the assumptions may exclude highly relevant data, so that the information generated by the model cannot "see" important aspects of reality. In other words, the model is "blind" in these respects.

Scale is also important and in economics especially. For example, extending the micro by implication to the meso and macro can fall victim to the fallacies of composition, hasty generalization, excludedd middle, and so forth. 

Finally, there may be significant cognitive-affective bias operation in model building, data collection and processing, and interpretation of output, as well as "what the model says."

At the macro level, the essential must be distinguished from the productive. Relatively little actual production activity is involved in a service-dominated economy such as contemporary developed economies. Maybe only about 25%, depending on the criteria for abstraction that are selected. And not all production or services are essential or vital, whereas some of both are.

Politics is an interesting factor in economics, too, since a great deal of economics, micro (individuals, "atomic" firms), meso (subsystems), and macro (national systems), and global (world system) – depend on policy choices, who makes them, and how they are made and implemented. Politics is an "industry," and under capitalism, the question arises, who makes the decisions and who gets the profits?

Getting a handle on this is an important aspect of learning and doing economics.

Interfluidity
Politics is an American industry
Steve Randy Waldman

See also

Asymptosis
Household Wealth by Wealth Percentile
Steve Roth

Why the US Can Keep Increasing its Debt and not Suffer Inflation (Part 2) — Stansfield Smith

The US ruling class has dominated the planet since the end of World War II. Key elements of this control include its military superiority in nuclear and conventional weapons, and the stationing of over 900 military bases around the world. In addition, the US presides over the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. It upholds the US dollar as the global currency, and it controls much of the world’s resources, particularly oil.
These factors provide the background to why the US can print, or create, billions and trillions of dollars, running up its national debt, now $25 trillion, yet endure little inflation. The reason for this capacity is only tangentially explained by Modern Monetary Theory. It results from the US position as the imperial superpower, which enables it to export inflation....
Worth reading but with the proviso that any simplified model of foreign exchange is somewhat simplistic.

But the idea is holds that when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold (in part at least to dollar hegemony and the effect of US policy on other economies and currencies). But foreign exchange is an effect of the dynamics of the world system rather than being chiefly a cause of it. Nevertheless, the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008 are reminders that global finance is key, as is the reality of who controls it.

This also presents the Fed with a conundrum since Fed officials realize that US monetary policy is really globally monetary policy as well in many ways, and that what is good for the US at any junction may not be good for the ROW, including close allies. Here, the Fed makes adjustments with currency swaps, for example.

All this is further complicated by monetary authorities' – central banks, especially – failure to properly understand the monetary system and its operations, so a number of their tools either don't work as expected by the erroneous theories, or are even opposite in effect. This includes the policy rate as a key tool for influencing borrowing rate expectations that are supposed to control investment decisions.

I would sum all this up by saying that while MMT is correct economics, there is more to the world system including the global economy that economics. The foundational factor is power, who hold it and what the power dynamics are. This applies not only to economics but also to sociology and political theory. Therefore, an integrated approach to the world system is needed.

Anyway, the post brings up many relevant issues and makes some good points, so it worth reading as a critique of certain aspects of MMT and global economics and finance, even though the scope of the issues far exceed it and some of the assertions about global finance are questionable. He does quote Michael Hudson, who has published extensively on this. The author notes that Michael Hudson identifies as an MMT economist, his views – or at least the way he expresses them – are sometimes not on all fours with the developers of MMT.

Dissident Voice
Why the US Can Keep Increasing its Debt and not Suffer Inflation (Part 2)
Stansfield Smith, Chicago ALBA Solidarity, long time Latin America solidarity activist, publisher of the AFGJ Venezuela Weekly, and Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

See also

Similar cautions as above apply.

The Vineyard of the Saker
We’ve met the ‘enemy within’ – and he’s us.
Francis Lee

From Poverty to Power — The Hidden Life of Theories of Change

Why a paradigm may be more suitable than a plan in dealing with change in development economics.

Some extracts to whet your appetites (my summary subheads in square brackets):
[Real agility happens outside the Theory of Change]
While the relevance of chance is obvious, an advocate’s ability to read chance as windows of opportunities and turn them into stepping stones towards desired change is fundamental to success. Chance encounters blend with the personality of the advocate and other personal factors, including his or her relations and network, knowledge, skills, and enthusiasm for a person or a topic.
In this process of sense-making and deciding, advocates’ reasoning is validated and strengthened by fast cycles of learning. These are cranked up through quick fact checking, corroborating, or bouncing off ideas with trusted allies or team members, and gathering of information or ‘intel’. This points to cycles of interactive learning and change within advocates’ carefully nurtured social networks that function as sounding boards for learning and theorizing. As a result, advocacy practice appears to be driven by locally negotiated, constantly changing communities of practice.

Formal Theory of Change does not anticipate or reflect these kinds of dynamics and opportunities. Rather than use the Theory of Change to guide day-to-day decisions about which way they should go, advocates explained that they would reference their Theory of Change to test if there were strong reasons why they should NOT act on an opportunity.
This is comparable to John Boyd's  OODA loop in combat operations — "observe, orient, decide, act."

It's also the intuitive aspect of engineering that leads to innovation.

Oxfam Blogs — From Poverty to Power
The Hidden Life of Theories of Change

Inflation Targeting: Keep It Simple — Brian Romanchuk

The Powell press conference came and went, discussing the Fed's new approach to inflation targeting. My view is that not much has changed, and we just face largely pointless debates about messaging -- which are predicated upon the questionable assumption that expectation management can fine-tune economic growth.

(For this article, I will assume the conventional view that interest rate policy can be used to control inflation. I have severe concerns about this, but if we do not assume that the central bank can fine tune growth to match arbitrary trajectories, the story is a bit more plausible.)
Bond Economics
Inflation Targeting: Keep It Simple
Brian Romanchuk

FT - Covid crisis has accelerated big trends in China’s favour

Recent renminbi rally underscores shift in the economic balance from west to east


China and much of east Asia have had a good crisis, relatively speaking. The recent rally in the renminbi shows currency markets are starting to acknowledge this. But it is just the tip of the iceberg. A shift in the economic balance, away from the west and towards Asia, was well under way before Covid-19. The pandemic just accelerated it.

Start by considering Beijing’s management of the outbreak. It is true that Covid started in China and the geopolitical ramifications of that are still playing out. However, case and mortality trends in the region have paled in comparison to many other parts of the world. A history of handling pandemics has helped, as has world-beating technology. But as the US and Europe continue to grapple with new waves of Covid cases, levels in much of east Asia remain low.

FT 


Kevin Vincent Tweet 

China: Initial strict lockdown, universal mask wearing, contact tracing, mass testing.

China: 3.4 covid deaths per million 

Sweden: 574.74 covid deaths per million. 

This is China today

Bund Night Market: Shanghai 

 




Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Zero Hedge — US Retail Sales Disappoint, Online Spending Growth Hits A Wall As Government Handouts End


Underscores the importance of targeted government spending, that is, direction of flow toward consumer spending (multiplier effect) rather than adding to the stock of savings (neutralization). Attempting to stimulate business investment fails in the face of lagging demand.

Zero Hedge
US Retail Sales Disappoint, Online Spending Growth Hits A Wall As Government Handouts End
Tyler Durden

McKinsey — An experiment to inform universal basic income


Finnish experiment.
The final results from Finland’s experiment are now in, and the findings are intriguing: the basic income in Finland led to a small increase in employment, significantly boosted multiple measures of the recipients’ well-being, and reinforced positive individual and societal feedback loops.
The numbers look pretty good. Can it be generalized?

This would not suggest that a UBI is a substitute for an MMT JG, however. The rise in employment was small. There would still be a buffer stock of unemployed without a JG.

Do the results imply that a UBI is the only alternative? Would a means-tested basic income perform the same or better?

McKinsey
An experiment to inform universal basic income
Tera Allas, Jukka Maksimainen, James Manyika, and Navjot Singh

Confucius on Governance — Frank Li

If China can be viewed as a computer, then the First Emperor was the (first generation of the) hardware, and Confucius has been the major software since then.
In this post, I will talk about Confucius on governance, with profound implications for America today.... 
Confucianism is a form of traditionalism that subscribes to the Great Chain of Being model — heaven, ruler, head of household as first in a heirarchy based on virtue. This model underlies most ancient systems and forms a pillar of traditionalism.

This view is diametrically opposed to the liberal view that makes the individual supreme and views society as an aggregate rather than a collective (system).

Interestingly, this hierarchical model is still used as the chief mode of organization in the militaries of the world and also firms.

Thus, China appears to the West as a corporate state instead of the a liberal one. It can also be compared to highly organized Roman phalanxes fighting disorganized tribes.

econintersect.com
Confucius on Governance
Frank Li | Chinese ex-pat, Founder and President of W.E.I. (West-East International), a Chicago-based import & export company, B.E. from Zhejiang University (China) in 1982, M.E. from the University of Tokyo in 1985, and Ph.D. from Vanderbilt University in 1988, all in Electrical Engineering

See also

The Vineyard of the Saker
Weekly China Newsbrief and Sitrep
Godfree Roberts

Non-summit shows EU-China ties at new low — Alicia GarcĂ­a-Herrero


Nothing-burger.  The EU wants more than China is willing to give now that it is turning away from its former export-driven model of development and moved on toward building a middle-class consumer economy.

Bruegel
Non-summit shows EU-China ties at new low
Alicia GarcĂ­a-Herrero

Tale of two capitalisms — David F. Ruccio

In this post, I continue the draft of sections of my forthcoming book, “Marxian Economics: An Introduction.” This, like the previous post, is for chapter 1, Marxian Economics Today.
Occasional Links & Commentary
Tale of two capitalisms
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame

See also

MR Online
1978: Ernest Mandel – We must dream. Anticipation and hope as categories of historical materialism

Bill Mitchell — How would Job Guarantee wages be set?

But a few economics matters first pertaining to the Job Guarantee and the nonsensical arguments I have been seeing in the media about it being a system of enslavement and not better than a system that forces workers into unemployment....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
How would Job Guarantee wages be set?
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and the Power of the US Dollar in the World Economy (Part 1) — Stansfield Smith,


Stansfield Smith mounts an interesting argument that the USD is the only truly sovereign currency in the world taking the present monetary arrangements into account. 

Owing to dollar hegemony, all other counties are dollar-dependent to one degree or another, which limits their ability to conduct policy independently in spite of their meeting MMT criteria for currency sovereignty. 

So, while the MMT position may be correct technically, there is more to it than that, and this is an important element in the pursuit of neoliberalism, neo-imperialism, and neocolonialism as a world system and world order. It allows the US to both make the rules and also to break the rules when this is to its advantage. In other words, it is an imperial system.

While the author doesn't mention it, there is also the issue of the US actively opposing other countries'' asserting independence from the dollar. Longish but worth a read.

Dissident Voice
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and the Power of the US Dollar in the World Economy (Part 1)
Stansfield Smith, Chicago ALBA Solidarity, long time Latin America solidarity activist, publisher of AFGJ Venezuela Weekly, and Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Canadian Establishment: "Deficit Myths? Yes, Please!" — Brian Romanchuk

The Canadian Establishment has launched a full-court press against lax fiscal policy of the Trudeau government. It would be only a slight exaggeration to say that they are calling for austerity (at least not immediately), but rumours of policies like Universal Basic Income are causing alarm bells to ring. The Canadian economic establishment is very much wedded to sound finance beliefs, courtesy of the Great Canadian Fiscal Crisis of the early 1990s.
Hysteresis is a powerful influence.

As an aside, Germany still can't get over the Weimar hyperinflation and ignores the turnaround engineered by Reichsbank president Hjalmar Schacht that contributed to the economic success of the Hitler regime through "creative finance."But since the end of WWII, Germany has been firmly committed to "sound finance."

Bond Economics
Canadian Establishment: "Deficit Myths? Yes, Please!"
Brian Romanchuk

LSE Symposium on Methods


Some interesting articles on economic sociology, and economics and law.

London School of Economics
Symposium on Methods