Robert Oak — US ISM Survey Shows Manufacturing in Contraction for 5th Month in a Row

The February 2016 ISM Manufacturing Survey is yet another month of manufacturing malaise. Manufacturing is in a 5th month of contraction, although much less so than last month. PMI was 49.5%, 1.3 percentage points higher than January. New orders had no change in acceleration but employment and production did improve. A contracting manufacturing sector five months in a row is now due to supplier deliveries, contracting inventories and employment.…

The Economic Populist
ISM Survey Shows Manufacturing in Contraction for 5th Month in a Row
Robert Oak

The Arthurian — The New Arthurian Economics

The way to read the debt-per-dollar ratio is this: It goes up until there is a big economic problem, it goes down while that problem is being solved, and it goes up again after the problem is solved...

Art demonstrates good use of math in econ.

If only they would use the accelerated repayment of debt as their main tool for fighting inflation, we could have that permanent quasi-boom.

What is the basic principle for fiscal policy on which MMT is based? Accommodate saving desire through functional finance so that private debt doesn't accumulate, leading to financial instability and economic contraction.

The New Arthurian
The New Arthurian Economics
The Arthurian

How 2nd Rate Nations Arrange Financing

Here we can see the government of second rate EUR-zombie nation China lending the government of second rate EUR-zombie nation Russia the currency balances issued by a pan European institution.

When will these second rate nations ever sober up and get some self-respect and just use their own currency.

The Bank of #China will grant Russian #energy giant Gazprom 2 bln euros on a 5-yr loan, #Gazprom said on Thursday | https://t.co/Hh6zu8U99j

— Virtus Galaxia (@vg_oilandgas) March 3, 2016

Shannon Pettypiece — Costco Profit Drops as Demand Wanes From Higher-Income Shoppers

Costco Wholesale Corp. posted second-quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates as higher-income shoppers show signs of curtailing spending.….

“The abrupt and sharp deceleration in comp sales is of deep concern broadly and is likely a bad omen for staples retail generally,” said Scott Mushkin, an analyst with Wolfe Research, in a note to clients earlier this month after Costco said its January sales came in below expectations.

Bloomberg

Costco Profit Drops as Demand Wanes From Higher-Income Shoppers
Shannon Pettypiece

Trump — HEALTHCARE REFORM TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

Trump reveals outline of healthcare reform.

Donald J. Trump
HEALTHCARE REFORM TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

Thomas Graham: US-Russian relations have entered a new era — Andrei Sitov interviews Thomas Graham

In early February, one of the leading US experts on Russia, Thomas Graham, visited Moscow. Graham used to be Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007 and Director for Russian Affairs on that staff from 2002 to 2004. Now, he's is a managing director at Kissinger Associates, as well as one of the co-Directors of the Russian Studies Project at Yale. On his return to the United State, Thomas Graham was interviewed by TASS.

TASS
Thomas Graham: US-Russian relations have entered a new era
Andrei Sitov interviews Thomas Graham

Sputnik — Dreadful Premonition: Is ‘US Plan B on Syria a WWIII'?

The good, the bad, and the ugly. What Americans are not being told about "Plan B."

Sputnik International

Dreadful Premonition: Is ‘US Plan B on Syria a WWIII'?

Also:

Torn Apart: What Lies Behind Washington’s 'Plan' B for Syria

Tass, Russian Foreign Ministry rules out handover of Syrian territories to Islamic State

Constantin Gurdgiev — China and Russia Manufacturing PMI: February

Still in the tank.

True Economics
China Manufacturing PMI: February

Russia Manufacturing PMI: February

Constantin Gurdgiev

David Dayen — Larry Fink and His BlackRock Team Poised to Take Over Hillary Clinton’s Treasury Department

BlackRock's Larry Fink angling for Treasury in a Clinton administration?

The Intercept

Larry Fink and His BlackRock Team Poised to Take Over Hillary Clinton’s Treasury Department
David Dayen

Possible Bottom in Steel

Too early to tell from this data but something to keep an eye on. Portends slight USD weakness near term.

HOW LONG WILL THE #STEELPRICERECOVERY LAST? https://t.co/0EESr6wHxJ

— Meps International (@mepssteelprices) March 2, 2016

Jon Hellevig — Russian Economy – The disease is not Dutch but Liberal

There has lately again been a slew of articles in the Western business press denigrating Russia’s efforts to develop its industry condemning the drive for import substitution to failure and casting the curse of Dutch disease over it.

I have taken part of these stories just as I was preparing my own article reporting in fact on the success of Russia in these fields. I must say that I am a bit tired of arguing with those witless self-styled experts regurgitating the same old propaganda lines, but nevertheless I decided to take up the challenge and combine my report with a discussion of the Russian import substitution program and the imaginary Dutch disease.

The gist of my account is that Russia is not suffering and has never suffered from the fabled Dutch disease, which perhaps is nothing more than an academic platitude to start with. I will explain why I would much rather say that what Russia has been suffering is from something best termed the Liberal disease. 

While Russia has now largely cured itself from that affliction, it continues to suffer the effects of the Liberal disease, this time in form of being subject to the foolish harangues of Western liberal economists and their stage-managed opposition mouthpieces back home in Russia (or Paris, or wherever they happen to be perched from time to time). – In fact, it is not even as clear as that, because it seems to me that a large portion of the ruling elite, including those in government, are still very much advocating the failed Liberal disease.

One gets the feeling that President Putin and his administration is in this respect on the sane pragmatic side whereas the other parts of the government still pull to the liberal side, which is not good at all.

Before I launch into a more detailed discussion on that subject, I would like to set out the facts as they are presently.….

Awara Blog

Russian Economy – The disease is not Dutch but Liberal
Jon Hellevig

Alexander Mercouris — NYT Articles on Libyan Crisis Show US Foreign Policy Is A Train Wreck

American versus Russian decision making process.

Whereas Russia has a modern government, the US now has a post-modern government - with all that implies for international relations and world peace.

Russia Insider
NYT Articles on Libyan Crisis Show US Foreign Policy Is A Train Wreck

Alexander Mercouris

Jayati Ghosh — The Modi Government and India’s Economy

Why "growth" is BS.

India is now officially the world’s fastest growing economy, with GDP growth of 7.6 per cent in the past year. This is why it has been lauded as the new Asian tiger, or even elephant on steroids, in a global economy that otherwise is full of gloom and showing signs of impending crisis. The fact that India is a huge beneficiary of the low global oil prices is another reason for seeing it in a “sweet spot” that brings a lot of potential for growth.

But it is surprisingly hard to see much evidence of this rapid economic growth on the ground in India, or even find it reflected in indicators that most people would appreciate. The way national income is calculated has been changed, and it has found skeptics even among the government’s own economic advisors. So while GDP growth is apparently still rapid, employment continues to stagnate, especially formal employment that provides any kind of social or legal protection. Real wages (that rose throughout the previous decade) have been falling for a year now, more sharply in rural India. The agrarian economy is close to crisis, as farmers reel from the effects of two consecutive poor monsoons and reduced public spending that could affect agriculture. Public delivery in nutrition, health and education is in a mess after massive fiscal cutbacks in previous years.

Investment rates in the economy are actually falling (down to less than 30 per cent of GDP last year compared to around 34 per cent in previous years) and industrial production is limping along, growing at only around 3.5 per cent. Both exports and imports are falling. Banks, particularly public sector banks, are facing financial stress, burdened with large unpaid debt from infrastructure investments many of which have stalled. So many people ask: where is all this so-called growth actually occurring?
Obviously, we need measures to increase domestic demand by improving wage incomes and possibilities of employment. More real spending on agriculture, on social sectors and on employment schemes can do this directly and indirectly through very large multiplier effects.

Sadly, the Budget just unveiled by India’s Finance Minister has missed this chance….

All this because it wants to keep its fiscal deficit targets,….

More insanity.

Naked Capitalism
The Modi Government and India’s Economy

Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics and Chairperson at the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

Cross posted from Triple Crisis

Interfax.ru — Russian Deputy PM Calls NATO Commander "A Specialist in Bombing Afghan Weddings"

Getting personal. The US military and deep state are already seething over Russian success in Syria. Now it appears that the Russians have decided to respond in kind to the US personal attacks on Putin, ratcheting the rancor up a notch.  Until now, the Russian have been pretty reserved in the face of insults and lies. Looks like the gloves are coming off.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin responded to the accusations against Russia from NATO commander in Europe, General Philip Breedlove, who talked about the inaccuracy of Russian airstrikes in Syria.

"From a sick head to a healthy one [Russian idiom - FR] - a specialist in bombing Afghan weddings talks aboutthe accuracy of our bombing," - he wrote, with a link to Breedlove's statement. 

NATO commander in Europe had earlier said in the Senate that Russia is using weapons in Syria, "which are not of high accuracy", which creates panic among the local population and leads to increased flow of migrants.'….

Breedlove omits the detail that the refugees were already in Turkey in refugee camps before Russia entered Syria, and the refugee crisis began with refugees from Libya.  It was exacerbated when Erdogan turned the refugees from the Turkish camps toward Europe.

Fort Russ
Russian Deputy PM Calls NATO Commander "A Specialist in Bombing Afghan Weddings"
Interfax.ru
Translated by Kristina Kharlova

See also

Moon of Alabama
Kerry's "Plan B" - Attack Syria From Lebanon - With Saudi and Turkish Help

Seems that this scenario would bring in Iran.

Slouching (or rushing) toward Armageddon? The end-timers must be getting excited.

Pepe Escobar — Europe’s Slow Motion Debacle

Beneath the analysis presented herein is the view emerging among analysts is that the chaos being created in MENA, EU, Ukraine, and Central Asia, Afghanistan is not accidental but rather engineered by "the empire of chaos." It is ultimately directed at maintaining global hegemony irrespective of the cost globally, excepting to North America. Pepe Escobar suggests this in the ending line. I expect that he and others will be developing it.

Strategic Culture Foundation
Europe’s Slow Motion Debacle

Pepe Escobar

David Sloan Wilson — Fighting Wall Street Predators with Game Theory

In one classic version of the game, each player is given an endowment, which they can keep or contribute to a common fund. The fund is multiplied and distributed equally to the players. This is a social environment that rewards defection, since players that don’t contribute get the highest returns. When actual people play the game, most start off moderately generous, but as soon as they realize that they are being exploited by others, they withhold their own contributions. Cooperation goes down the drain, leaving only defection and the lack of social benefits. There is no way to punish defectors in this version of the game, so the punish vs. ignore option is inoperative. The only way to punish defectors is to withhold one’s own cooperation; that is, to become a defector oneself.

The punishment option can be added to the game by allowing players to contribute to the first common fund, where it is multiplied and distributed as before, or to a second fund, where it is multiplied and used to punish defectors by deducting from their payoffs. When this version of the game is played by real people, if enough players are motivated to punish defectors, then cooperators earn the highest payoffs and everyone ends up cooperating. But there are still financial losers in this game and they are the punishers. Since they must pay to punish, they place themselves at a disadvantage compared to cooperators who don’t punish. The problem of free-riding hasn’t gone away, but merely relocated from the provision of the public good to its protection.

A lot depends on the multiplier of the punishment fund. If it is high, then a little goes a long way toward punishing defectors. If it is low, then punishment can only be levied at a substantial personal cost. A lot also depends on the number of members playing the game who are willing to punish. If they are many, then the per capita cost of punishment becomes low. If they are few, then the per capita cost becomes prohibitive. Acting like the Lone Ranger can get you killed.

Now think of Donald Trump as the elected punisher.

Evonomics
Fighting Wall Street Predators with Game Theory
David Sloan Wilson | SUNY Distinguished Professor of Biology and Anthropology at Binghamton University and Arne Næss Chair in Global Justice and the Environment at the University of Oslo

Economy Watch — Global Deflation Signals Persist, Signaling Economic Slowdown

More signs of a deflationary environment are appearing in Europe and Asia, leading many economists to give up on hopes of stronger growth in the near future.…

Economy Watch
Global Deflation Signals Persist, Signaling Economic Slowdown

Mehreen Khan — Euro depression is 'deliberate' EU choice, says former Bank of England chief

Europe's deep economic malaise is the result of "deliberate" policy choices made by EU elites, according to the former governor of the Bank of England.

Lord Mervyn King continued his scathing assault on Europe's economic and monetary union, having predicted the beleaguered currency zone will need to be dismantled to free its weakest members from unremitting austerity and record levels of unemployment.…

Lord King - who spent a decade fighting the worst financial crisis in history at the Bank of England - has said the weakest eurozone members face little choice but to return to their national currencies as "the only way to plot a route back to economic growth and full employment".…

The former Bank governor has said popular disillusion with EU economic policies are likely to lead to disintegration of the single currency rather than a move towards "completing" monetary union.

The Telegraph
Euro depression is 'deliberate' EU choice, says former Bank of England chief

Mehreen Khan

Shanghai Daily — Internet strategy to boost revenue

Shanghai plans to increase its information services revenue to 600 billion yuan ($92 billion) this year, six times what it generated in 2010, through an Internet Plus strategy that encourages web innovation and investment.

The strategy involves integrating the Internet with a range of sectors, including manufacturing, tourism, entertainment, finance and urban management, a move aimed at improving quality of life for citizens by driving local economic development.
Officials expect Shanghai's strategy to attract new IT-related investment exceeding 10 billion yuan over the next several years.

In the first nine months of 2015, Shanghai's information services revenue reached 449.4 billion yuan, up 18.1 percent year on year, and it will hit 600 billion yuan this year, the Shanghai Commission of Economy and Information Technology said yesterday.

The city's leading Internet firms include Ctrip (tourism), Ele.me (food delivery), Gewara (cinema tickets), Yhd.com (e-commerce), Dianrong.com and ChinaPnR (finance).
In the first three quarters of last year, Shanghai's Internet industry revenue jumped 28.5 percent, triple the GDP growth rate, the commission said.

The city's authorities for urban planning, education, finance and commerce will join the commission in supporting the plan for integrating Internet applications and technologies with traditional industries.

The city also plans to provide better infrastructure, including improved broadband and public Wi-Fi hot spots.

Meanwhile, the city yesterday opened a 12,000-square-meter incubation center called ET Space in Minhang District.

Regarding infrastructure, public broadband is today's highway system.

ECNS
Internet strategy to boost revenue
Shanghai Daily

Trump Threatens Ryan

Post super Tuesday victories behind him, Trump now focusing on higher order targets within the GOP.  Here in no uncertain terms threatening disgraced soup kitchen dish washer when the dishes are already clean Ayn Rand fan-boy extraordinaire Ryan.

Trump: If Ryan can't get along with me "he's going to have to pay a big price" https://t.co/XlKAS4x05o pic.twitter.com/3g2crVqAaN

— The Hill (@thehill) March 2, 2016

China.org.cn — China creates 13.12 mln new jobs in 2015

China creates more than 13.12 million new jobs for urban residents in 2015, a senior government official said on Monday.

Yin Weimin, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, released the data at a press conference, saying that China had created more than 13 million new jobs for urban residents annually since 2013, though the reading for 2015 was down 0.8 percent from the year before.

He also revealed that China will release a plan on raising the retirement age this year to cope with pressures from a shrinking work force and an aging society.

The official retirement age, which was adopted six decades ago when life expectancy was much lower, has not adapted to economic and social development, said Yin.

China's retirement age is 60 for men, 55 for female white-collar workers and 50 for female blue-collar employees.…

China.org.cn
China creates 13.12 mln new jobs in 2015

teleSUR — Macri’s Priorities: Vulture Funds Come First

In his speech in the opening of the legislative period, Mauricio Macri established that closing a deal with the vulture funds will be his main priority in 2016. This is why he asked lawmakers on both sides of the alley to repeal the current legislation in matters of foreign debt so the government can pay the vultures. “It will depend on this Congress if we close this conflict, if responsibility comes first over rhetoric,” the president said, and demanded the MPs of his Let’s Change coalition build consensus with the left-leaning Front for Victory opposition.

Macri also referred to his foreign affairs agenda saying that his government had already started to build new relations with other countries and that Argentina had reestablished relations with the U.S. Since the diplomatic ties between both countries were never broken, it seemed a reference to the trip that security minister, Patricia Bullrich, made to Washington D.C. last week to sign cooperation agreements with U.S. security forces under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking.…

Are the global wars on drugs and terror subterfuges for a not-so-hidden agenda of global control?

teleSUR
Macri’s Priorities: Vulture Funds Come First

Jason Smith — Post Keynesian blues

Jason Smith comments on Post Keynesianism in light of the debate begun by Noah Smith on "occultism."

Information Transfer Economics
Post Keynesian blues
Jason Smith

Leonid Bershidsky — The U.S. System Is Designed to Beat Trump

This is really funny. The author is constantly bashing Russia for "fixed" elections, and now he is proposing a fixed election policy for the US to avoid "the excess of democracy" as mob rule. He even cites the Founding Fathers. So much for US "democracy."

The elite is all for "democracy" when it suits them. When it does not, it is "mob rule" that needs to be overridden procedurally.

Bloomberg View
The U.S. System Is Designed to Beat Trump

Leonid Bershidsky

Related:

Here is an argument that China is actually democratic at the grassroots level that acts as a control on the technocratic meritocracy guiding the country from above. Compare the results of China with those of democratic India, where no one ever agrees on anything and corruption is rife.

The Diplomat

‘Chinese Capillary Democracy:’ Can Western Democracies Learn From China?
Franz-Stefan Gady

Propaganda report

The daily wishful thinking, group think, and propaganda sheet, courtesy Johnson's Russia List


NEWSLINK: “Relying Again on an Unreliable Mr. Putin” – New York Times

NEWSLINK: “Mobs in Ukraine Attack Russian Banks in Burst of ‘Office Pogroms'” – New York Times

NEWSLINK: “Pentagon, CIA Chiefs Don’t Think Russia Will Abide by Syria Cease-Fire. Want White House to ready plans to increase pressure on Moscow” – Wall Street Journal

NEWSLINK: “Scant evidence thus far links radical protesters to Kremlin” – Kyiv Post

NEWSLINK: “Russia’s Pernicious Hybrid War Against Ukraine” – Atlantic Council/Andreas Umland

NEWSLINK: “Russia set to lose population, power and influence, report predicts. [Straftor]” – News.com.au (Australia)

NEWSLINK: “Russia takes (yet another) look at its ‘unpredictable past.’

Ron Baiman — On the Neglect of Class in Neoclassical Macroeconomics

A lack of awareness of the importance of changes in class structure (via income distribution) is another important distinction between mainstream Neoclassical (NC) Keynesian macroeconomics and the Keynesian-Kaldor PK macroeconomic tradition that Friedman is working out of. Left PK heterodox economists incorporate class analysis as a fundamental driver of macroeconomic outcomes, whereas it is largely absent in mainstream NC macroeconomics as a fundamental driver of economic growth.…

The D & S Blog
On the Neglect of Class in Neoclassical Macroeconomics
Ron Baiman, Chicago Political Economy Group

William K. Black — The Urgent Need to Save Orthodox Economists from their Crippling Myths

Noah Smith's post sparks Sheriff Bill into action, explaining how conventional economists still don't get it. It's an excellent summary of Bill's many blogs on the subject.

New Economic Perspectives
The Urgent Need to Save Orthodox Economists from their Crippling Myths
William K. Black | Associate Professor of Economics and Law, UMKC

I told you to buy the dips

You can listen to others who have been wrong for three years running, worried about the size of the deficit or, you can follow us here when we tell you about far more important flows.

I told you yesterday to buy the dips.

I told you there would be no recession.

I WILL TELL YOU when to get worried, but it's NOT NOW.

"Investing" Paul Singer style

Paul Singer...scum

Here's how American hedge fund scum like Paul Singer, "invest."

Make bad bets where you've basically lost all your money then get the U.S. courts and your paid representatives in government to bail you out.

As for Argentina, WTF is wrong with you? You get out of a mess in such a costly, but completely avoidable fashion and then you turn right around and start creating a new mess for yourselves???

WTF???

ARGENTINA...STOP FUCKING BORROWING IN OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY!!!

You're a major food producer.
You're an energy producer.
You used to be one of the world's great industrial powers.

STOP THE FUCKING INSANITY!!

(Will someone put me in charge? Please? I would have cut Singer's nuts off.)

Zombie Alert!!!!

USD Zombie breakout reported in Argentina; 15B on the Z-scale, a pretty big one:

After Historic Singer Deal, #Argentina Eyes $15 Billion Bond Sale https://t.co/81UBJMGtRF via @business #bonds #latam #markets

— Robert Burgess (@burgessansm) March 1, 2016

Looking ugly down there! Scary!!!!