Sunday, July 28, 2019

Mark Blyth - So can we have it all?

Mark Blyth severely criticises MMT at around the 24 minute mark. It lasts about 5 minutes. He says it could work for America but would mess up the rest of the world which needs dollars to buy oil. What do you think?



Rep Jim Jordan On FBI Spying On Americans and How Impotent The Muller Investigation Was

Muller is put on the spot by Jim Jordan. Watch him wriggle! He says how the Dems want to carry on investigating even after three years of finding nothing. But he has a better idea, why not investigate who started this conspiracy theory?



Finance, Class, and the Birth of Neoclassical Economics: The Marginalist Revolution Revisited — Yair Kaldor


Value theory in economics.

Economic Sociology and Political Economy
Finance, Class, and the Birth of Neoclassical Economics: The Marginalist Revolution Revisited
Yair Kaldor | PhD candidate in the sociology department at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and a member of Koah LaOvdim (“Power to the Workers”), an Israeli labor union.

Michael Hudson— The Coming Savings Meltdown

Debts that can’t be paid, won’t be. That point inevitably arrives on the liabilities side of the economy’s balance sheet.
But what of the asset side? One person’s debt is a creditor’s claim for payment. This is defined as “savings,” even though banks simply create credit endogenously on their own computers without needing any prior savings. When debts can’t be paid and debtors default, what happens to these creditors? 
Michael Hudson — On Finance, Real Estate And The Powers Of Neoliberalism
The Coming Savings Meltdown
Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

Debt Worries Yet Again — Brian Romanchuk

J.W. Mason posted an interesting list of arguments to not worry about government debt levels in "A Baker's Dozen of Reasons not to Worry About Government Debt." On reading it, I realised that one could cut through the whole thing by arguing as follows: the reason why we should not worry about government debt in a country like the United State is that nobody can come up with a (not highly disputable*) reason why that the stock of debt matters.

I will largely leave that assertion for the reader to chew on. However, I would note that I chose my wording carefully....
Bond Economics
Debt Worries Yet Again
Brian Romanchuk

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Links — 27 July 2019

Fort Russ News
Czech military expert: Russia was to be dismembered in the ’90s

Craig Murray Blog
Tanker Seizures and the Threat to the Global Economy from Resurgent Imperialism
Craig Murray, formerly British ambassador to Uzbekistan and Rector of the University of Dundee

Axios
Hunter Biden's Ukraine job raises conflict of interest questions
David Nather

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The Economist does Mister P
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

The National Interest
RIP F-35: Russia Could Turn Su-57 Into 6th Generation Super Stealth Fighter
Dario Leone

The National Interest
World War III? How Russia, China, Japan and South Korea Nearly Started a War
Sebastien Roblin

Marko Marjanovic

Checkpoint Asia
China Readiess $29 Billion to Fuel Rise of Chip Industry
Sarah Dai, South China Sea Post

TASS
China, Russia should strengthen cooperation in technologies, energy — [Chinese] foreign minister

Oilprice.com

Bloomberg - Everything You Want To Know About Modern Money Theory

Bard College Economics Professor L. Randall Wray explains the controversial idea that’s gaining acceptance with Bloomberg's Cristina Lindblad and Peter Coy.





But the right-wing doomsters are going full pelt underneath.

From the comments section -

It is amazing that someone calls himself economist after ignoring economic history. ALL nations who printed/coined/digitalised money at will went broke. It takes an hour or two to study cases like Greece, Rome, Byzantine Empire, Brazil, Venezuela, Congo, to point the places I can recall. Keep printing money, America, like there's no tomorrow. Live the fake life a little longer. Hangover is coming.

Reply

Exactly. The British tally stick system lasted 8 centuries before their holders were paid off in gold. Any day now...the collapse. The Roman empire only lasted 1000 years...any day now.

Robert Elliott - How Russia spreads disinformation via RT is more nuanced than we realise

Some guy called Robert Elliott has put out in the Guardian some of the most blatant misinformation I've ever come across. What is so diabolical about the article is that Elliott says he's the CEO of a company that he set up to counter disinformation, especially from Russia.

If you read the article you will see that Elliott's company gets some funding from the British government.

Elliott says Maduro was behind a coup in Venezuela, but Jimmy Carter observed the elections and said they were the fairest he had ever seen. Also, Europe and America was asked to come and observe the elections too, but they turned it down. Venezuela use some of the best voting machines available so the right can't hack them to fix the elections. Why doesn't Elliott mention any of this in his article if he is trying to put out the real news?

Elliot also says RT has spread conspiracy theories about the Skripal poisoning. Well, I never saw any.

A Jewish professor of intelligence recently described how intelegence agencies would carry out such an assassination. In the Skripal case, two agents would have flown from Russia to a neutral country using fake passports, and then they would have flown to Britain using different fake passports. Once in Britain they would stayed overnight in a safe house and then the next day they would travel to where they are going to do the murder. And then, and only then, would someone hand them the murder weapon. But chances are they would do it the old fashioned way and make it look like a suicide or an accident. Why didn't the Guardian or the BBC report this analysis by a Jewish expert on intelligence operations?

Instead we are told the Russian agents came to Britain using their real passports, went sightseeing for a day (I posted photos here once of them looking into windows of shops), and then tried to do the murder with a chemical 'of a type originally developed in Russia'. Come on! Also, and I don't think the Western media reported this, but they didn't have much money so they had to share a single bed together at the British hotel.

The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/26/russia-disinformation-rt-nuanced-online-ofcom-fine





New Study Predicts Millions of Americans May Become Exposed to “Off the Charts” Heat — Dimitri Lascaris interviews Michael Mann

I use a simple rule. If you want to have an idea of what we will be facing by the middle of this century absent concerted action on climate change, then what we think of today, what we perceive, what we describe as record heat or a record heat wave— in a few decades, we will simply call that summer. The typical summer day will be like the most extreme day that we have seen in our lifetimes at this point. And what unusual heat, record heat, will look like at that point, we don’t even have an analog for that. And so, clearly if we continue on that path, we’re venturing into dangerous territory where a substantially large part of the planet basically becomes uninhabitable to human beings. And obviously, when you take a growing global population, less land, less food and water because of the aggravating impacts of climate change on those as well. You’re talking about unprecedented levels of conflict. It’s a future that we don’t want to see. The good news is there’s still time to make sure that that is not our future....
TRNN
New Study Predicts Millions of Americans May Become Exposed to “Off the Charts” Heat
Dimitri Lascaris interviews Michael Mann | Distinguished Professor and Director of the Earth Science Systems Service Center at Penn State Univerity
ht Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism

Friday, July 26, 2019

Links — 26 July 2019

Real-World Economics Review Blog
Understanding global inequality in the 21st century
Jayati Ghosh | Professor of Economics at the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, School of Social Sciences, at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, in New Delhi


Goats, Guns N Gold
Gabbard Going After Google is Double Plus Good
Tom Luongo

Sputnik International
Venezuela Diversifying Economy to Step Out of Oil Revenue Dependency - Maduro

US Approves Sale of F-16 Program Support to Pakistan in Wake of Trump-Khan Talks

China Tells US to ‘Stop Its Random and Illegal Sanctions’ Amid Iranian Oil Trade Row

TASS
Venezuelan president thanks Russia and China for help in restructuring economy

Sic Semper Tyrannis
RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 25 JULY 2019
Patrick Armstrong

Pew Research Center
Trust and Distrust in America


U.S. Reinstates Capital Punishment


"Save munnie!!!" :p





Tucker: What should happen to those who lied about Russian collusion?

Tucker Carlson nails it!

The Dems kept saying they had evidence, but have never been able to produce any, and nor has anyone else.


Stagflation and it's prevalence in Pakistan — Omer Javed

This policy inclination – both local and one suggested in IMF programs towards over-relying on policy rate on curtailing aggregate demand, is indeed a disproportionate response to correctly and effectively addressing inflation and low growth challenge. Pakistan, therefore, needs a balanced monetary and fiscal policy response to tackle the issues of stagflation. The policy should focus on both the aggregate – demand and supply sides. This will also help bring a much-needed boost in the employment levels.
It would make sense, at the same time, to borrow from the unconventional economic policy of the type of modern monetary theory, and political-economic and heterodox institutional and behavioral economics. Overall as well, global prevalence of stagflation requires a policy response on similar lines as indicated above. Monetary policy alone, or when given a disproportionate role in tackling stagflationary concerns, will not work as has been indicated the time and again over the last four decades or so.
Global Village Space
Stagflation and it's prevalence in Pakistan
Dr. Omer Javed | institutional political economist

How economics can raise its game — Tim Harford


Another one on methodology.

I, my view, Tim Harford is basically correct in thinking that the optimal methodological approach in economics, as in the social sciences, is to "let a hundred flowers bloom," to borrow a metaphor from Chairman Mao. But from the POV of the "hard" sciences, "soft science" is not "real" science. That is drawing lines arbitrarily. It basically says that the other "sciences" are not physics or chemistry. Well, doh.

Anyway, the post is worth a read. It takes off from a recent paper by George Akerlof.

Tim Harford — The Undercover Economist
How economics can raise its game
Tim Harford, FT columinst


Andre Vltchek - March of the Uyghurs. Again, The West Tries to Destroy China, Using Religion and Terror.

Andre Vltchek looks into the terrifying world of the Uyghur extremists. It's a very long article which shows a whole network of terrorist activity across the Middle East, Asia, and Russia, all of it backed by Western intelligence agencies. They are charged up with Wahhabism and want to turn the world into an Islamic state.

The majority of Uyghurs are peaceful Muslims, but there's enough of a minority to cause havoc throughout the world. Lots of them are in Syria fighting Assad's government.

The BBC put out another video on the Chinese government treatment of the Uyghur Muslims, but it never mentioned that Uyghur extremists have killed 1200 Chinese civilians to date. In fact, it never mentioned anything about Uyghur extremists at all.

Andre Vltchek - March of the Uyghurs. Again, The West Tries to Destroy China, Using Religion and Terror.

Some humour to lighten the gloom — Duncan Green

Don’t know about you, but watching the daily news isn’t much fun these days (nor is the weather/climate), and this week in particular, I am sorely in need of light relief. There was even a riot at my local swimming pool yesterday.

So back to the abandoned series of ‘Friday funnies’: here’s a few previous FP2P posts that might just qualify. Coincidentally, they are the ones that the people I talk to often remember best. Hope they are acceptable – I once received a complaint because the refugees on the cover of a newsletter I had just edited were laughing, ‘so they can’t possibly be refugees’. Sigh....
Oxfam Blogs — From Poverty to Power
Some humour to lighten the gloom
Duncan Green, strategic adviser for Oxfam GB

Michael Roberts — The world’s scariest economist?

Mariana Mazzucato is one of the world’s most influential economists, according to Quartz magazine. She has won many awards for her work. She is an adviser to the UK Labour Party on economic policy; she “has the ear” of radical Congress representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she advises Democratic presidential hopeful, Senator Elizabeth Warren and also Scottish Nationalist leader Nicola Sturgeon. And she has written two key books: The Entrepreneurial State (2013) and the The Value of Everything (2018).

Mazzucato is considered radical, even ‘scary,’ by many mainstream economists and conservative politicians. This is because she has highlighted the important role that the state and governments have played in delivering innovation in technology and in advancing productive investment. The idea that the state can be a leading force in innovation and investment in useful activity is anathema to the right-wing neo-liberal ‘free market’ views of the majority of mainstream economists and politicians.…

Mariana Mazzucato is a fellow traveler with the MMT economists and has collaborated with Randy Wray.

Michael Roberts Blog — blogging from a marxist economist
The world’s scariest economist?
Michael Roberts

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Must be a libertarian bad dream...


This must be like a libertarian nightmare:



hahahahahahahaha! suck it up cupcakes!!!!

Got thru the House today; probably the whole libertarian House Freakdom Caucus voted "NO!"... libertarian assholes...:


The declining labour share of income: Accounting for the main factors — Jan Mischke, Hans‐Helmut Kotz, Jacques Bughin

Since the 1980s, labour compensation relative to aggregate output has been on an inexorable downward trend across major developed economies. This column deploys a simple accounting technology to tease out the driving factors behind this, focusing on the US. The findings highlight the key role of under-appreciated factors, including supercycles and boom-bust effects and rising depreciation. The analysis suggests that while the effect of some factors may dampen or reverse, others will likely continue at an uncertain pace.…
More factors to consider. The most provocative claim is that commonly accepted major factors turn out not to be the major factors in the causal mix.

Vox.EU
The declining labour share of income: Accounting for the main factors
Jan Mischke, Hans‐Helmut Kotz, Jacques Bughin

Zero Hedge — Entire Swiss Curve Goes Sub-Zero - Global Negative-Yielding Debt Spikes To New Record High

 How low can it go?
WTF is going on!!
Zero Hedge
Entire Swiss Curve Goes Sub-Zero - Global Negative-Yielding Debt Spikes To New Record High
Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge — Barr And State AGs Discuss Big Tech Monopolies As 'Flipped' Facebook Co-Founder Helps Devise Antitrust Action


More anti-trust talk.

Zero Hedge
Barr And State AGs Discuss Big Tech Monopolies As 'Flipped' Facebook Co-Founder Helps Devise Antitrust Action
Tyler Durden

Keiser Report: 5G, Why is the US so far behind? (E1414)

This goes well with the Andre Vltchek article I just put out.

Max Keiser says the US fell behind the rest of the world with 5G for three reasons.

1. US CEO's sold off the technology to increase short-term profits.

2. The US government set no standard for 5G which meant US companies were too scared to invest incase their version didn't win out in the market.

3. The US military uses part of the 5G spectrum for spying and didn't want to give it up.

Max says how China plans for the long term future while US companies engage in stock buy-backs and asset stripping.

Look what happened to Britain’s ICI? It was one of the biggest chemical companies in the world. And Ever Ready had a brilliant brand name but more money could be made by running the company down.


In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy ask why the US is so far behind on 5G? Chinese companies own the most patents on crucial elements of the technology, while there are no major US companies building and developing 5G telecom equipment.

Andre Vltchek - Reason Why West Is Determined to Ignore China's Success



Tourists go to China and can't believe what they are seeing, says Andre Vltchek, as they were expecting to see a third world and backward communist country, but they find it looks more modern than anything they have back home. China has superb museums, beautiful public parks, and very clean cities, and the countryside has been developed now too.

Andre Vltchek says China is still at heart a communist country and its capitalist part is there to serve the community.


Everything in China changed. Its cities became clean, green, ecological, full of public parks, exercise machines for adults and children. Urban centers are now overflowing with a first class public transportation (all ecological), with impressive museums, concert halls, excellent universities and medical centers. Subsidized super-high trains are connecting all major cities of the country. In Communist China, everything is planned by the government and by the Communist Party, and the private sector is there to serve the nation, not vice versa. It works. It works remarkably well. Citizens have much more say about how their country is governed, than those in the West.


Cities are clean, efficient, built for the people. No beggars and no slums. No misery. Things are getting better and better.
Foreigners who come to China for the first time are shocked: China looks much wealthier than the US or UK. Its streets, its airports, its metro systems, high-speed trains, theatres, sidewalks, parks, easily put those in New York of Paris to shame.
But, it is not rich. Far from it! China’s GDP per capita is still relatively low, but that is precisely what makes “socialism with Chinese characteristics” so impressive and superior to the Western capitalism fueled by imperialism. China does not need to have average incomes of some $50,000+ per capita to prosper, to give its people an increasingly great life, to protect the environment, and to promote great culture.
Could it be, that this is precisely why the West is shaking in fear?
The West, where economic growth is everything, where people live in constant fear, instead of optimistic hope for the future. The West, where trillions of dollars and euros are wasted annually, so the elites can live in bizarre luxury and preside over irrational, unnecessary over-production and arms accumulation, which bring no well-being to the majority.
China and its central planning are offering a much better and logical system, for its citizens and for the world.
Most of its science is geared to the improvement of life on this planet, not for cold profits.
President Xi’s brainchild – BRI – is designed to lift up billions of people world-wide out of poverty, and to connect the world, instead of fragmenting it.
So why is President Xi so much disliked in Europe?
Could it be, that it is precisely because of the gigantic success of China?

“Across-the-Board Tariffs on China with Retaliation and Federal Spending Create Over 1 Million Jobs in Five Years” — Menzie Chinn

I’ve read the “working paper” (and the preceding paper) a couple of times, and am not clear what happens — the results are based on splicing two models (REMI and BCG data) and running out the results.
Alarm bells went off in my head when I read this:
You decide.

Econbrowser
“Across-the-Board Tariffs on China with Retaliation and Federal Spending Create Over 1 Million Jobs in Five Years”
Menzie Chinn | Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics

ECRI — Predicting the ISM and Markit PMIs


Is the trade war beginning to bite the global economy, to which most countries are coupled? A leading indicator suggests that this may be developing.

Climate Watch

Global warming skeptics sometimes say rising temperatures are just another naturally occurring shift in Earth’s climate, like the Medieval Warm Period of the years 800 to 1200 or the Little Ice Age, a period of cooling that spanned from roughly 1300 to 1850.
But a pair of studies published Wednesday provides stark evidence that the rise in global temperatures over the past 150 years has been far more rapid and widespread than any warming period in the past 2,000 years — a finding that undercuts claims that today’s global warming isn’t necessarily the result of human activity.
NBC News
Climate scientists drive stake through heart of skeptics' argument
Jaclyn Jeffrey-Wilensky
Research argues that deadly Candida auris "may be the first example of a new fungal disease emerging from climate change."…
Fungal diseases are relatively uncommon in humans because of body temperature—but if they adapt to rising temperatures, and aren't easily treatable with medications, they could increasingly endanger human health on a global scale. Casadevall warned that while C. auris may be the first fungal disease whose emergence scientists have tied to rising temperatures, it potentially won't be the last.
"Global warming may lead to new fungal diseases that we don't even know about right now," he said. "What this study suggests is this is the beginning of fungi adapting to higher temperatures, and we are going to have more and more problems as the century goes on." …
Common Dreams
'This Is the Beginning': New Study Warns Climate Crisis May Have Been Pivotal in Rise of Drug-Resistant Superbug
Jessica Corbett

An opposing view

Armstrong Economics
Climate Change is about Overthrowing Capitalism
Martin Armstrong



Reuters — Treasury's Mnuchin says Amazon 'destroyed' U.S. retail sector

“If you look at Amazon, although they’re certain benefits to it, they’ve destroyed the retail industry across the United States,” Mnuchin told CNBC. “I don’t have an opinion other than I think it’s absolutely right the attorney general is looking into these issues and I look forward to listening to his recommendations to the president.”
Are we finally going to start talking about anti-trust, which. incidentally, was at the heart of US progressivism historically.

Reuters
Treasury's Mnuchin says Amazon 'destroyed' U.S. retail sector

CFRB having a bad week


hahahahahahahahhaa!!!!!!





"Pumping!"


ChiComms have put another bank in trouble:



Developers having their credit lines pulled:




Not looking good....

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Bill Mitchell — Modest (insipid) Green New Deal proposals miss the point

All over the globe now there are cries for a Green New Deal. What constitutes the GND is another matter. Like the concept of the Job Guarantee, there are now countless versions springing out of various groups, some that only seem to offer a short-term, short-week job or other arrangements that fall short of the way Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) constructs the concept. There is only one Job Guarantee in the modern parlance and that is the MMT concept. Other job creation programs are fine but they should stop using the term Job Guarantee, which is a comprehensive macroeconomic stability framework rather than a job creation program per se. In the same vein, all manner of proposals seem to have become part of the GND. The problem is that many of these proposals sell the idea short and will fail to achieve what is really required – a massive transformation of society and the role the government plays within it. The imprecision is exacerbated by progressives who are afraid to go too far outside the neoliberal mould for fear of being shut out of the debate. So we get ‘modest’ proposals, hunkered down in neoliberal framing as if to step up to the plate confidently is a step too far. This is Part 1 of a two-part blog post series on my thoughts on the failure of the environmental Left and climate action activists to frame their ambitions adequately....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Modest (insipid) Green New Deal proposals miss the point
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

See also

Bond Economics
Some Comments On Economic Climate Change Models
Brian Romanchuk