Friday, March 20, 2009

East European Rates to Plunge as Currencies Ignored

"Eastern Europe’s key central banks will cut interest rates to record lows this year, opting to counter the deepest recession since the fall of communism instead of defending weak currencies, Bloomberg surveys show."

They seem to understand the current paradigm of floating exchange rates and its benefits a lot better than the ECB, which still seems to be more concerned about the euro's value than helping to sustain economic output and employment.

While the Eastern European currencies have all been hurt badly relative to the euro, I believe in the long-term they will outperform the euro as growth and stability return to those countries faster. One of the best long-term trades may be shorting the euro against the Czech, Hungarian and Polish currencies.

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