Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Good news! Tax revenues confirm economic growth pickup!

Average daily tax receipts in August are now up over July and up year over year.


Unknown said...

Mike, where is the source of this chart? August isn't even over yet. What's the old saying, "Figures lie and liars figure." Not you as the messenger but the source. So last year around this time we had unemployment around +/-6.1% and today we have about +/-9.4%. Go figure.

Is this a blip due to cash for clunkers (one time gain), Will this number be revised downward later as most Gov. Stats are.

This link doesn't support your chart. http://www.newsneconomics.com/2009/08/treasury-receipts-still-falling-at-13.html

"As of August 4, 2009, the Daily Treasury Statement (DTS) shows that the 1-month cumulative sum of income tax receipts (withheld plus paid taxes) is dropping at a 13% annual pace. The severely weak labor market is cutting wages, which in turn, drags consumer spending."

mike norman said...

Please go to Daily Treasury Statement. This gives the daily outlays, receipts and taxes collected. My chart is thru the 17th of August. And thru the same period of July and August one year ago.

The link you gave me shows the one month cumulative sum, which may very well be lower than one-year ago as the author says. I gave the average daily amount of receipts, which only yesterday surpassed prior month/year numbers. It can change today. I am looking at the shortest term indicator, in other words, to give me a sign when things may be starting to improve.

RSG said...

Mike, What line item are you referring to in the report, I'm having trouble finding it.

mike norman said...

RSG: Go down to "Table IV" and look at the line item indicated as, "Change in Balance of Unclassified Taxes" and then look at the Total. As with all their reporting, they give it to you on a daily, month-to-date and Fiscal Year-to-date basis. I calculate an average daily total for the month so far and compare that to the prior month and the prior year.

Staff Writer said...

Mike, based on the latest 8-21-09 receipts, the average daily take is 6.3B, quite a bit lower than your 7.6B per day projection. At the 6.3 rate the receipts for August will be 133B, significantly lower than your comparison months of July this year and August last year which are 151 and 157, respectively.

I'm not saying that the 6.3 daily average will hold out for the rest of the month. We won't know what the August receipts are for a couple more weeks, but you can't cherry pick an early average daily receipt and claim that it makes a case for an economy on the upswing.