Although I'm still looking at GDP and employment for 2012, I think the unemployment rate will be mostly unchanged in 2012.
A couple of predictions.
• The participation rate will rise slightly in 2012 and probably end the year in the 64.0% to 64.5% range.
• The unemployment rate will still be in the 8% to 9% range in December 2012.
Read it at Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2012: Unemployment Rate
by Calculated Risk
9 comments:
On the subject of unemployment, how do you feel about the Employer of Last Resort part of MMT? How do you think it would work and what are the risks?
John T
I wonder what they are inhaling! If I look at the FRED database on Labor participation rates, this is what I see
I cannot see, given the policies currently being followed, how you will shift either participation rate into the positive area.
Clonal
I believe Warren made the point that the Participation Rate exhibits pro-cyclical characteristics in a comment the other day....
Resp,
John Carney just tweeted:
IM from my mom: "TLDR - but will later - re. jobs guarantee"
Dan,
I dont get that? Can you xlate the "twitterese"?
Resp,
I'm not great with Twitterese either Matt. But I googled TLDR, and apparently it means "too long; didn't read." Carney's tweet didn't say what it was his mom didn't read.
Maybe he is working on a blog post wrt the JG...
Maybe his mom is his proof reader, hey that's cheating John! ;)
Resp,
Matt,
Did you see the labor force participation rates that I linked to? Given that picture, I don't see how the combined labor force participation rates will increase.
Clonal agree...
its like as the economy improves, more people seek jobs..
Resp,
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