Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Calculated Risk on 2012 Employment


Although I'm still looking at GDP and employment for 2012, I think the unemployment rate will be mostly unchanged in 2012.
A couple of predictions.
• The participation rate will rise slightly in 2012 and probably end the year in the 64.0% to 64.5% range.
• The unemployment rate will still be in the 8% to 9% range in December 2012.

Read it at Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2012: Unemployment Rate
by Calculated Risk

9 comments:

John T said...

On the subject of unemployment, how do you feel about the Employer of Last Resort part of MMT? How do you think it would work and what are the risks?

John T

Clonal said...

I wonder what they are inhaling! If I look at the FRED database on Labor participation rates, this is what I see

I cannot see, given the policies currently being followed, how you will shift either participation rate into the positive area.

Matt Franko said...

Clonal

I believe Warren made the point that the Participation Rate exhibits pro-cyclical characteristics in a comment the other day....

Resp,

Anonymous said...

John Carney just tweeted:

IM from my mom: "TLDR - but will later - re. jobs guarantee"

Matt Franko said...

Dan,

I dont get that? Can you xlate the "twitterese"?

Resp,

Anonymous said...

I'm not great with Twitterese either Matt. But I googled TLDR, and apparently it means "too long; didn't read." Carney's tweet didn't say what it was his mom didn't read.

Matt Franko said...

Maybe he is working on a blog post wrt the JG...

Maybe his mom is his proof reader, hey that's cheating John! ;)

Resp,

Clonal said...

Matt,

Did you see the labor force participation rates that I linked to? Given that picture, I don't see how the combined labor force participation rates will increase.

Matt Franko said...

Clonal agree...

its like as the economy improves, more people seek jobs..

Resp,