James Oliphant — Paralyzed By Ukraine, Dumbfounded by Russia

The US debate over Russia that could affect the future of humanity'

But more critically, isolating Russia and treating it like a second-rate European nation belies the reality of its nuclear arsenal. In the wake of the two countries' deteriorating relationship, Russia said late last year that it would boycott a planned summit on nuclear security to be held in the U.S. And there are growing worries that the U.S. and Russia no longer have the controls in place that kept nukes secure during the Cold War, giving rise to fears that a misunderstanding could have lethal consequences. 

Putin's Russia, says Brookings' Jeremy Shapiro, "is the only existential threat the United States faces. Even if it is a low-probability outcome, it is a very bad one. I think it's worth talking about up front." 

Shapiro does not support arming Ukraine. He says Obama should engage Putin directly to defuse the crisis and perhaps even grant Russia some say in the affairs of its border nations rather than stumble into a war incrementally. 

While the Obama administration has been cool to the very notion of foreign "spheres of influence," Shapiro notes that the United States, as a matter of policy, has never much cared whether Ukraine is part of the West. 

"We are literally risking World War III for something we do not want," Shapiro says. "We forget we're not fighting for anything worth having. That's the real danger."

On the other hand, US hawks are hell-bent on rushing where angels fear to tread, as most of the post documents. Avoiding another Chamberlain at Munich, or repeating the mistake of Napoleon and Hitler?

"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." — Otto von Bismarck

National Journal
Paralyzed By Ukraine, Dumbfounded by Russia
James Oliphant