Sunday, June 25, 2017

Bill McBride — Goldman on the Next Recession

CR note: Some day there will be another recession, but I don't see signs of a recession in the next year or more.
Calculated Risk
Goldman on the Next Recession
Bill McBride


djrichard said...

Per GS, "many post-WW2 recessions were caused by ... and monetary policy tightening". Yep, the Fed has said they have a bogie for when they want to "normalize" the Fed Funds rate. Once they eclipse the 10Y, and invert the yield curve, that seems to be the conventional tell on when to get out of the market. Until then, party on dudes and BTFD. Oh yea, and just to give it the veneer of legitimacy, tell people the risk you're taking "climbing that wall of worry".

Noah Way said...

Reminds me of penny stock email scams.

"[Our model] now estimates a 1/4 chance of recession over the next two years, somewhat below the unconditional probability over two years of 1/3 since 1980."

Translation: We're taking short positions across the board.