Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Brian Romanchuk — Expect More Of The Same On The Inflation Front

Although I do not bill myself as a forecaster, my generic inflation forecast has remained remarkably accurate: expect it to stick around 2%, barring a recession. Although this has been the correct forecast for years, it does not match what people want to hear: higher inflation (or deflation!) is around the corner! (This generic forecast is for the United States and Canada, but I will stick to U.S. data for this article.) To a certain extent, the entire social position of mainstream economics is based on their ability to sound very serious about inflation, and just saying that inflation will probably stick around 2% does not sound serious at all. This article is an update on my views on inflation, which obviously have not moved very much....
Bond Economics
Expect More Of The Same On The Inflation Front
Brian Romanchuk

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