Links — 29 Jan 2022 AM

Energy Intelligence (good analysis of the moves on the board)
Russia Moves Toward Checkmate on Ukraine
Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, serving in the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, on General Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons inspector

https://www.energyintel.com/0000017e-a069-de39-a9ff-bbf980230000

Defense One (strategy)
Russia Is Teaching a Master Class in ‘Decision-Centric' Warfare
Dan Patt and Bryan Clark | Hudson Institute

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/russia-teaching-master-class-decision-centric-warfare/361310/

The Hill (everyone else seems to believe they can read Putin's mind)
Kirby: 'It's really unclear' what Putin's thinking amid rising Russia-Ukraine tensions

Caroline Vakil

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/591924-kirby-its-really-unclear-what-putins-thinking-amid-rising-russia-ukraine

War on the Rocks (“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack that warrants a nuclear retaliation.”)
WHY INTERMEDIATE-RANGE MISSILES ARE A FOCAL POINT IN THE UKRAINE CRISIS
BRENNAN DEVERAUX

Zero Hedge (surprise–countries pursue their own national interests)
NATO Row Erupts As Latvia Blasts Germany's "Immoral & Hypocritical" Russia, China Ties
Tyler Durden
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nato-row-erupts-latvia-blasts-germanys-immoral-hypocritical-russia-china-ties

Interfax/Ukraine (calling BS on disinformation)
Ukrainian Defense Ministry calls messages about Moscow sending medical materials to border with Ukraine information and psychological warfare

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/794926.html

Sputnik International (imperial overreach becoming obvious?)
Ukraine's Dilemma: How US & NATO Are Beating the Drums For a War They Are Unwilling to Fight In

https://sputniknews.com/20220129/ukraines-dilemma-how-us--nato-are-beating-the-drums-for-a-war-they-are-unwilling-to-fight-in-1092606778.html

The Vineyard of the Saker (longish and detailed)
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with radio stations, January 28, 2022
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with Sputnik, Echo of Moscow, Govorit Moskva and Komsomolskaya Pravda radio stations, Moscow, January 28, 2022
http://thesaker.is/foreign-minister-sergey-lavrovs-interview-with-radio-stations-january-28-2022/

China Sitrep: Cookies, Lil’Blinky and The Pain Dial (Russia and China take the gloves off. US shocked.)

Amarynth

http://thesaker.is/china-sitrep-cookies-lilblinky-and-the-pain-dial/

AntiWar (putting the US on notice)
Chinese Ambassador Warns Increasing US Ties With Taiwan Could Lead to War

Dave DeCamp

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/01/28/chinese-ambassador-warns-increasing-us-ties-with-taiwan-could-lead-to-war/

Moon of Alabama (satire)
China, Where Everything Vanishes

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/china-where-everything-vanishes.html

TASS
Kazakhstan’s unrest was masterminded by professionals, President Tokayev says

https://tass.com/world/1394943

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science (about as bad as it gets)

Fools at the Hoover Institution: The gift that keeps on giving

Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/01/29/fools-at-the-hoover-institution-the-gift-that-keeps-on-giving/