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"It's over" in the sense that since Ukraine is suffering about a thousand casualties a day, they eventually run out of soldiers. Simple math says that you divide the number of Ukrainian soldiers by a thousand, and that gets you the number of days before it's over. However, attrition warfare is non-linear.
Lanchester's laws are mathematical formulae for calculating the relative strengths of military forces. The Lanchester equations are differential equations describing the time dependence of two armies' strengths A and B as a function of time, with the function depending only on A and B.
In 1915 and 1916, during World War I, M. Osipov and Frederick Lanchester independently devised a series of differential equations to demonstrate the power relationships between opposing forces.: vii–viii Among these are what is known as Lanchester's linear law (for ancient combat) and Lanchester's square law (for modern combat with long-range weapons such as firearms).
With firearms engaging each other directly with aimed shooting from a distance, they can attack multiple targets and can receive fire from multiple directions. The rate of attrition now depends only on the number of weapons shooting. Lanchester determined that the power of such a force is proportional not to the number of units it has, but to the square of the number of units. This is known as Lanchester's square law.
3 comments:
No more hopium for Ukraine.
I'm starting to be more skeptical of Macgregor. How long has he been saying, "it's over" for Ukraine? Ritter, too.
Putin is sending young boys to their death in droves. Inept military strategy.
"It's over" in the sense that since Ukraine is suffering about a thousand casualties a day, they eventually run out of soldiers. Simple math says that you divide the number of Ukrainian soldiers by a thousand, and that gets you the number of days before it's over. However, attrition warfare is non-linear.
Lanchester's laws are mathematical formulae for calculating the relative strengths of military forces. The Lanchester equations are differential equations describing the time dependence of two armies' strengths A and B as a function of time, with the function depending only on A and B.
In 1915 and 1916, during World War I, M. Osipov and Frederick Lanchester independently devised a series of differential equations to demonstrate the power relationships between opposing forces.: vii–viii Among these are what is known as Lanchester's linear law (for ancient combat) and Lanchester's square law (for modern combat with long-range weapons such as firearms).
With firearms engaging each other directly with aimed shooting from a distance, they can attack multiple targets and can receive fire from multiple directions. The rate of attrition now depends only on the number of weapons shooting. Lanchester determined that the power of such a force is proportional not to the number of units it has, but to the square of the number of units. This is known as Lanchester's square law.
source: Lanchester's laws
Since this is now an artillery battle, the following applies:
Salvo combat model
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