Monday, March 13, 2023

Bailout! — Brian Romanchuk

The U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp banded together to create the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP — the bureaucrats are going for the laughs with the acronyms at this point), which gives 1-year financing to eligible banks against Treasury/mortgage-backed security collateral at par. They also announced that uninsured depositors at two failed banks (the known failure Silicon Valley Bank, as well as the newly-shuttered Signature bank) will be made whole.

At the time of writing, I have not seen any announced results for the auction of Silicon Valley Bank’s assets (or entire balance). This lending facility seems to be the replacement.

Unlike the 2008 bailouts, bank equity and bond holders have been zeroed out (unless future asset sales do a lot better than expected). To the extent that this is a bailout, it is a bailout of the depositors of those banks.…

So not exactly a bailout. Equity and corporate debt will be wiped out as of the currently announced policy, not bailed out. Only the depositors will be made whole. This is consistent with "capitalism," since it is equity and bond holders that are supposed to shoulder the risk. 

While customers' making deposits are actually customer loans to banks, most people do not realize that they are actually making loans to the bank by making deposits. Rather many think that deposits are "money" held for safe keeping that is set aside in vaults, which is not the case. Others think that their deposits are lent out by banks in making loans. Neither of these perceptions of banking are true.

Many if not most people confuse this regarding banking, since they think of "money" in terms of thing that is stored in the bank for safekeeping or else lent out. But "money" is based double-entry bookkeeping, where it shows up as one party's asset and another party's liability on accounting records. 

Banking is based on the bank making loans (customer liabilities, bank assets) and creating deposits (customer assets, bank liabilities), and taking deposits (customer assets and bank liabilities). Extension of credit creates an asset for the bank in the form of loan, and those loans are subject to non-performance and default risk, which affects the solvency of the bank. Customer deposits do not enter into it, since the bank creates a deposit corresponding to loan when the loan is approved. "Money" is created by banks simply by recording entries in the appropriate accounting records (the bank's books). Apparently a lot of people can't get their heads around this. 

Central banks create their respective currencies similarly in accordance with the government mandate — in the US, the Federal Reserve Act. In a digital environment, "money" is created by stroking keyboards and exists on spreadsheets (the respective parties books in terms of double-entry).

Central banks were a logical extension of the development of banking. If customers lose trust in a bank, a bank run can occur and if large enough, now bank can withstand it based on its own liquidity. This was the reason for the the creation of the Federal Reserve by the US Congress in 1913. The Fed would act as lender of last resort to prevent a banking crisis that could lead to a financial collapse and ensuing depression. Thus, the government became the provider of liquidity based on its constitutionally granted power of money-creation — the US, the US Constitution, article 1, section 8.

Trust based on this liquidity provision is a principal reason for deposit insurance, along with rules that allow for bank nationalization, which is usually temporary, occurring Friday after close with the institution opening under new management on Monday morning. Without this trust, reluctance to commit deposits would be a result. So it is not merely government generosity or paternalism. Nor does it affect taxpayers adversely in a sovereign system in which the government has a monopoly on its currency-issuance.

In the case of insolvency leading to bank closure (banks don't go bankrupt like other firms but are taken over by the feds), bank liabilities are at risk, including uninsured deposits. Guaranteeing all deposits at the federal level, with the government having a monopoly over currency issuance, would obviate that risk in the case of bank deposits. In return, banks would be subject to strict oversight regarding credit operations. 

As Warren Mosler has said many times, bank regulation should focus on the asset side (credit creation) rather than the deposit side. Bank regulation should focus on credit operations. Making the federal deposit guarantee unlimited would serve to protect all depositors as a matter of optimizing the banking system by increasing trust while reducing system risk.

A lot of the noise now is about the bailout of depositors being at the expense of taxpayers, with frequent reference to "taxpayer money." MMT shows that that so-called taxpayer money doesn't exist in the current monetary system. "Money" is not a thing but rather the creation of accounting. A currency is the unit of account adopted by a sovereign. 

Many people apparently reify the concept of "money" based on the origin of banking in taking deposits of precious metals, chiefly gold and silver, and lending these deposits out based on "fractional reserve bank." Under this system, banks did not have the resources to cover deposits in the case of a run without calling in loans of gold and silver they had made from the deposit base. This was impractical. That system no longer exists as the dominant form of banking in the contemporary world. As a result, this perception — misperception really — is not congruent with reality.

The fact that it is necessary to explain this is an indication of how widespread this misperception is. Quite revealing actually. MMT still has a lot of work to do in educating the public including economists and financial professionals. Readers of this blog likely know all this already but everyone can help in spreading the word to others. This "crisis" presents an opportunity to do so.

This is not to assert that a "crisis" cannot lead to an actual crisis. If misperception of reality leads to deterioration of trust in the system then a real crisis could develop, since most large financial systems are subject to systemic risk ("knock-on effects"). For this reason, the US government is acting to get out in front of it by acting promptly, and rightly so.

Bond Economics
Bailout!
Brian Romanchuk

Also

Tax Research UK
Money is just double-entry bookkeeping, but you get it wrong at your peril
Richard Murphy | Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London; Director of Tax Research UK; non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics, and a member of the Progressive Economy Forum



9 comments:

Peter Pan said...

Stop spreading misinformation!
Fake news! Fake news alert!

I look forward to an explanation of bail-ins as pioneered in Cyprus, or some other crooked jurisdiction.

Matt Franko said...

Where is Treasury getting the $25b?

ESF?

Have not heard…

NeilW said...

The myths that people believe is quite astounding - even amongst supposedly intelligent Tech bros in the startup community.

There is a fundamental issue here - particularly in the USA. Mortgages have been at very low rates for years, and they are fixed for decades in the USA. That means there is an awful lot of mortgage bonds not paying a lot.

However if the Fed hikes interest rates, then those bonds don't pay enough to cover the 'lender of last resort' charge the Fed makes to advance liquidity. Which is why SVB went under. It couldn't meet the terms of the Fed's cash letter, and the regulators don't appear to have required SVB to ensure it had sufficient income to meet the Fed cash letter.

I don't believe insuring the HTM portfolio would have helped, and may even have made the situation worse - given it would have required a substantial outlay up front. No matter what fancy derivative position there is, insurers don't hand over money for nothing in return.

Looks to me like a bank that just wasn't lending with sufficient margin and was pushed into trying something risky.

Matt Franko said...

“ As Warren Mosler has said many times, bank regulation should focus on the asset side (credit creation) rather than the deposit side.”

Somebody tell Warren that they ARE looking at the asset (sic) side and the current PV of the HQLA is below regulatory limits so they have to close these institutions…

Even this new bailout is susceptible to runs… even if they allow the institutions reserve loans from the Fed at par…

All depositors have to do is withdraw an amount = > than the par value of the HQLA and the institution will have to be shut down …

A -L = C

100 - 90 = 10

100 is total Assets, 10 of which are HQLA at par

90 is Deposit Liabilities…

So if there is a run and depositors withdraw 11 then the bank has to be closed because they will have pledged
all 10 of of their HQLA already to get reserves to settle the withdrawals at 10..

They can’t get reserves to settle the 11th withdrawal as they don’t have any more qualified HQLA to use as collateral…

All small banks are at risk of runs right now there are 17T of deposit liabilities in the system…

Get your munnie into 100% US govt money market funds pronto…

Art degree psychos at the Fed running amuck…


Matt Franko said...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-11/svb-depositors-investors-tried-to-pull-42-billion-on-thursday?leadSource=uverify%20wall

“ SVB Depositors, Investors Tried to Pull $42 Billion Thursday”

So SVB has 200b in total assets let’s say 20b in HQLA leaving 180b (200 - 180 = 20) in ESG loans they made to finance new drag queen costumes for the drag show people to go all around doing drag queen shows for the Kindergartners…

Leaves 180b in deposit liabilities…

Those drag costumes go out of style sooner than planned as fashion preferences are fickle and the asset values of the drag costumes loans depreciates.,

Depositors get wind of the collapse in drag show costume values and try to withdraw 42B…

SVB pledges the 20B of HQLA to Fed and gets 20b loan of reserves to settle the first 20B of withdrawals…

But then they have to be closed down as Fed does not loan against drag show costume loans..

SVB has no more HQLA to pledge to get reserve loan to settle further withdrawals beyond the initial 20b,,,

This could happen to any US bank…

Get your munnie to a 100% US govt money market fund pronto…

Form your own credit Union staffed with your own people to settle payroll and AP/AR…

Art degree psychos running amuck…

Matt Franko said...

“ Looks to me like a bank that just wasn't lending with sufficient margin and was pushed into trying something risky.”

It’s not even that complicated…

If your HQLA requirement is 20 and people show up to withdraw 21 then you are toast… it’s that simple…

Matt Franko said...

It’s probably the f-ing CCP …. Art degree monetarist morons at Fed buys all the USTs to create reserves for the banks to lend out leaving the USD zombie CCP with only option of bank deposits for their zombie USD hoard …

CCP then just goes from US bank to US bank withdrawing their deposits in excess of HQLA causing sequential bank destruction and chaos all across the US in act of hybrid warfare…

Art degree morons in US intel community too stupid to figure it out..,

Peter Pan said...

Right wing conspiracysts are saying this is a prelude to bringing in CBDCs.

Matt Franko said...

Might be better system…