Zaid Jilani — Trumpcare Is Dead. “Single Payer Is the Only Real Answer,” Says Medicare Architect.

Many health care activists are now pushing to adopt what is called a “single payer” health care system, where one public health insurance program would cover everyone. The U.S. currently has one federal program like that: Medicare. Expanding it polls very well.

One of the activists pushing for such an expansion is Max Fine, someone who is intimately familiar with the program — because he helped create it. Fine is the last surviving member of President Kennedy’s Medicare Task Force, and he was also President Johnson’s designated debunker against the health insurance industry.

Fine, now 91, wrote to The Intercept recently to explain that Medicare was never intended to cover only the elderly population, and that expanding it to everyone was a goal that its architects long campaigned for....

Could the GOP pick up on this?

After the death of the Senate healthcare bill yesterday, The Intercept reached out to Fine for comment about where Congress should go next. “Single payer is the only real answer and some day I believe the Republicans will leap ahead of the Democrats and lead in its enactment,” he speculated, “just as did Bismarck in Germany and David Lloyd George and Churchill in the UK.”

No way the presently configured GOP could ever pass anything like this.

The Intercept
Trumpcare Is Dead. “Single Payer Is the Only Real Answer,” Says Medicare Architect.
Zaid Jilani

Robert Waldmann — Bizarro World

Health insurers confess to be being held hostage by Wall Street against their will. Some GOP senators react.

Capitalism at its "finest."

Angry Bear

Bizarro World
Robert Waldmann

beowulf — June 14, 1946 or how to pay for universal healthcare

As I’ve mentioned before, the guy who had universal healthcare figured out was the gruff former Congressman Pete Stark. His Americare bill from 2009 should be updated and made the Democratic alternative to the Senate bill….

Monetary Realism
June 14, 1946 or how to pay for universal healthcare

beowulf

Mike Murphy — House health-care bill is too ‘mean,’ Trump reportedly tells senators

President Donald Trump called the House-approved health-care bill “mean” and told a group of Republican senators that their bill should be “more generous,” according to reports Tuesday....

In Tuesday’s lunch with 15 Republican senators, both the Associated Press and CNN reported that Trump said the House bill did not do enough to protect individuals. “We need to be more generous, more kind,” he said, according to the AP....

Trump shows again that he is more politically savvy than his party. Can save them from themselves?

MarketWatch
House health-care bill is too ‘mean,’ Trump reportedly tells senators

Mike Murphy | Editor

Also

Congressional sources say President Donald Trump has told Republican senators that the House healthcare bill is "mean" and that the Senate version should be "more generous."

The remarks were a surprising critique of a Republican-written House measure whose passage Trump fought for and embraced. They also seem to undercut efforts by Senate conservatives to impose restrictions in their chamber’s legislation, such as curbing the Medicaid health care program for the poor and limiting the services insurers must cover....

Business Insider
Trump tells GOP senators that the House healthcare bill he celebrated in Rose Garden ceremony is 'mean'
Bob Bryan and Associated Press

Bob Bryan — CBO report says the GOP healthcare bill could throw many insurance markets into chaos

The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday released its latest projections for the GOP healthcare bill, and one new detail showed the newest version of the bill could lead to a disaster that Republicans feared under Obamacare.

In every previous CBO score for both Obamacare and the American Health Care Act, the CBO had said the individual insurance market would remain stable.

That means the marketplaces where people who do not receive coverage through their job or a government program like Medicaid would continue to be able to purchase insurance at an affordable price.

But the final version of the GOP's American Health Care Act, the CBO said, would undermine that stability.

Business Insider
CBO report says the GOP healthcare bill could throw many insurance markets into chaos
Bob Bryan

Also

CBO says GOP healthcare bill would leave 23 million more uninsured, undermine protections for people with preexisting conditions

Beowulf — Health is the War of The State

The first step of any political reform, I’ve always believed, is to figure out how to achieve the desired goal with the minimum number of changes to the existing legal structure. [Beowulf if a lawyer.] As I’ve written before, Obama’s healthcare plan should have simply been a universal plan similar to Medicare (if not Medicare itself) that covered every American from the day they were born instead of when they turned 65. It would have been faster, cheaper, more universal (as in 100%) and more popular. It was a mistake Obama didn’t take that route and unlike Bill Clinton, he didn’t have an excuse for it....

Beowulf tells how to get there with Pete Stark's Americare and why the Democrats Medicare for All bill (HR 676) is a non-starter the way it is written.

As a lawyer, Beowulf thinks of policy in terms of the actual bills that would need to be passed into law. This involves getting from here (status quo) to there (desired objective), along with what it would take politically to do so. This is something that economists and a lot of public policy people miss.

Monetary Realism
Health is the War of The State
Beowulf

Comparison of ACA and AHCA

Los Angeles Times
A side-by-side comparison of Obamacare and the GOP’s replacement plan
Noam N. Levey And Kyle Kim

Q1 Blog
Key Differences and Similarities between the ACA and AHCA

The Council of Insurance Agents and Broker
A Comparison of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the American Health Care Act (AHCA)

Timothy Jost — House Passes AHCA: How It Happened, What It Would Do, And Its Uncertain Senate Future

Blow by blow.

Health Affairs Blog
House Passes AHCA: How It Happened, What It Would Do, And Its Uncertain Senate Future
Timothy Jost

See also

New $8 Billion For Those With Preexisting Conditions Appears To Boost AHCA; Critics Say Amount Is Too Low
Timothy Jost
As Patients Take On More Costs, Will Providers Shoulder The Burden?
Michael Chernew and Jonathan Bush

Alexander Bolton — House healthcare bill faces upheaval in Senate

The ball is now in the Senate's court. Here are the issues based on Senate rules. There will also be disagreements among factions, as well as senators who face election in states that are now solidly GOP.

The GOP has only a two vote majority in the Senate, so they can only lose two votes to pass the bill under Senate rules avoiding a filibuster, since in the case of a 50-50 vote, Vice-President Pence could break that tie in favor of the GOP.

Politically, this would be dangerous for the GOP, however, since the bill narrowly passed in the House and will narrowly pass in the Senate if it does, with no Democratic votes. 

Given that President Trump did not carry the popular vote, this would be climbing out on a limb. Even if the legislation should pass under these circumstances, it would likely not be viable for long politically unless the GOP can increase its popular vote. The demographics don't support that, and the American public is already supportive of single payer.

The Hill
House healthcare bill faces upheaval in Senate
Alexander Bolton

Charles Krauthammer — Conservatives Are Losing On Healthcare

“Over these past seven years people’s expectations have changed,” [Krauthammer] said. “The grounds [for healthcare debate] are all liberal grounds…It’s showing that the country is at a point where I think it believes in universal coverage.”

For those outside the US or just not paying attention Charles Krauthammer is one of the deans of American conservatism. The Daily Caller is conservative media.

The Daily Caller
Krauthammer: Conservatives Are Losing On Healthcare

Amber Athey

See also

Breitbart News
Krauthammer: ‘We’ll Be In a Single-Payer System’ In ‘Less Than Seven Years’
Ian Hanchett

Nate Silver — The Health Care Bill Could Be A Job-Killer For GOP Incumbents

If this passes the Senate, the GOP is married to it, for better or for worse, just like the GOP is now married to President Trump.

Five Thirty Eight
The Health Care Bill Could Be A Job-Killer For GOP Incumbents

Nate Silver

Also

Democrats have a sharp message for Republicans crowing over Thursday’s House vote to dismantle ObamaCare: The healthcare system is now yours.

“Whether they voted for it or not, Republicans own TrumpCare now,” Rep. Linda Sanchez (Calif.), the vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said moments after the vote.

“They put their name next to your paying more for less,” echoed House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). “And we’ll make sure that the public is aware of that.”...

Trump and Ryan seem to be the early targets of the Democratic rebranding effort.

“They’re going to own it –– absolutely. And as we move forward, everything here is either RyanCare or TrumpCare. Or RyanTrumpCare,” Connolly said.

“They’re going to own it,” he repeated.

The Hill
Dems warn GOP: Now you own healthcare

Mike Lillis

The Republican plan to repeal and replace the the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which narrowly passed a vote in the House today, rolls back protections for people with pre-existing conditions, which could increase health care costs for an estimated 130 million Americans.

The American Health Care Act stipulates that states can allow insurers to charge people with pre-existing conditions more for health insurance (which is banned under the ACA) if the states meet certain conditions, such as setting up high-risk insurance pools. Insurers still cannot deny people coverage outright, as was a common practice before the ACA's passage, but they can hike up premiums to an unaffordable amount, effectively pricing people out of the market.

Fortune
50 Health Issues That Count as a Pre-existing Condition
Alicia Adamczyk

The Senate not biting?

The House passed the American Health Care Act in a 217 to 213 vote, sending the bill to the upper chamber. Yet, Senate leadership has acknowledged the legislation will need to change in the chamber in order to get enough of its members on board.

“We can’t be for half a dozen different proposals; we have to be for a proposal for us to get 51 votes in the Senate,” Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) told The Hill an hour before the House vote.

“We’ll start with the House bill, but we’ll need to work with every member of the Senate conference to see what they need to get to yes.”

Likely changes could focus on Medicaid and adding increased financial assistance, in the form of tax credits, to help low-income Americans afford health insurance.

It’s possible the Senate could run into the same problem the House toiled over for almost two months. Move the bill to right, and moderates will defect. Move the bill to the center, and the measure will lose conservative votes.

A big difference between the House and Senate is that many congressional districts are safe for incumbents owing to gerrymandering, while senators have to stand for general election by the entire state, putting their odds in greater play.

The Hill

GOP senators: We're doing our own healthcare bill
Rachel Roubein

CNBC — Republicans have a new plan to repeal Obamacare — and here it is

Republican lawmakers have a new plan to repeal and replace Obamacare in a bid to bridge the gap between the House Freedom Caucus and moderates, according to a document obtained by CNBC....

A Freedom Caucus source told CNBC the changes to the health bill would secure 25 to 30 "yes" votes from the Freedom Caucus, and the new bill would get "very close" to 216 votes. The source said that 18 to 20 of those "yes" votes would be new.

Two senior GOP aides told CNBC no vote is scheduled for next week, but a discussion is expected via conference call on Saturday....

CNBC
Republicans have a new plan to repeal Obamacare — and here it is
Berkeley Lovelace Jr. and Kayla Tausche

Robert Waldmann — To me the common assertion about health care reform and tax reform makes no sense

I honestly don’t get it. I’m sure I’m missing something. I am also sure, 100% sure, that, even if passage of the AHCA were to make it easier for the GOP.

Angry Bear
To me the common assertion about health care reform and tax reform makes no sense
Robert Waldmann

Ed Dolan — Universal Healthcare Access is Coming. Stop Fighting It and Start Figuring Out How to Make It Work.

Fairly detailed analysis of the issues involved in a transition to universal access to health care in the US.

Ed Dolan's Econ Blog
Universal Healthcare Access is Coming. Stop Fighting It and Start Figuring Out How to Make It Work.
Ed Dolan

Global Macro Monitor A Few Thoughts On Why Health Care Went Down

Amplifies on the reasons that the AHCA crashed in flames and what to expect next.

Global Macro Monitor
A Few Thoughts On Why Health Care Went Down

ht Zero Hedge

Daniel Marans — Bernie Sanders, Top Progressives Announce New ‘Medicare For All’ Push

In the wake of the Republican failure to repeal the Affordable Care Act on Friday, leading figures in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party are rallying behind a single-payer health insurance and a raft of other bold reforms.

These lawmakers and grassroots leaders have long believed that the problems plaguing the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, are rooted in the original health care law’s attempt to accommodate, rather than gradually replace, the private, for-profit health insurance system.

Now that efforts to eliminate the law wholesale are effectively dead, they are again arguing that the best way to improve the country’s health care system is to confront the power of corporate health care provider more directly.…

The Huffington Post
Bernie Sanders, Top Progressives Announce New ‘Medicare For All’ Push

Daniel Marans

David Haggith — Trump Obamacare Repeal Blew Up Bigly Because of a House Divided Against Itself

David Haggith explains how the three factions of the Congressional GOP could not arrive at compromise and perhaps never will be able to do so.

It is hard to say exactly who was in each group because no vote was taken to put members on record, but this appears to be generally how things fell apart:

1) By far the largest group would have consisted of the house’s largest conservative faction (172 members), known as the Republican Study Committee, probably joined by members of the House Republican Conference who do not identify with any particular faction. I’m talking here about the group that solidly supported President Trump and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan on the AHCA as originally drafted.
The Republican Study Committee — formed in 1973 to keep an eye on the party’s moderate leadership during the Nixon-Ford years — is the House’s oldest active faction....

2) The smallest, rewest, and most conservative faction of the House Republican Conference, called the “Freedom Caucus,” was established in 2015 to battle then Speaker John Boehner, particularly to fight his approval of Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act). These members of congress can be seen as the present rabble rousers because this is the faction that was willing to shut down the government in the original fight against Obamacare. ...

3) A larger faction of the House Republican Conference consists of about fifty people, who are the left-most Republicans in the House of Representatives (meaning only that they are moderates since no one in the Republican party is a leftist). This group was established in 1994 as the “Tuesday Group” when Republicans took control of the House under the more conservative leadership of Newt Gingrich. Gingrich rallied Republicans around his Contract with America. The Tuesday Group formed to resist Gingrich’s more conservative positioning of the Republican party.

The actual battle went like this: Unquestionably, those aligned with the Freedom Caucus felt the original AHCA bill, as proposed by Paul Ryan, did not go far enough in repealing Obamacare. Therefore, the group of Republicans who were with Trump and Ryan modified the bill to strip out more of Obamacare by taking down some of its Medicaid provisions and other benefits in order go gain some of the more conservative votes. That resulted in those aligned with the Tuesday Group (the most moderate Republicans) feeling the bill now went further right than they could tolerate. As a result, the Republicans lost some moderate votes when they compromised to pick up more conservative votes, and they never gained all of the conservative votes. So, they could not find a majority that could agree on any bill, and they had already thumbed their noses at Democrats completely, so they certainly wouldn’t get any help there....

The Great Recession Blog
Trump Obamacare Repeal Blew Up Bigly Because of a House Divided Against Itself
David Haggith

Joel B. Pollak — Health Care Bill’s Failure: Just Part of the ‘Art of the Deal’

You see, the Great Dealmaker planned to appear to lose this round in crafting the deal.

Breitbart News
Health Care Bill’s Failure: Just Part of the ‘Art of the Deal’
Joel B. Pollak | Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News

Also

Report: Steve Bannon Says American Health Care Act ‘Written by the Insurance Industry’

Charlie Spiering — Donald Trump Blames Democrats for Health Care Failure, Promises Better Plan in the Future

President Donald Trump signaled he was finished with trying to repeal and replace Obamacare, telling reporters at the White House he was ready to move to tax reform.

The purpose of the Ryan Plan was supposedly to make space for tax reform.

Breitbart News
Donald Trump Blames Democrats for Health Care Failure, Promises Better Plan in the Future
Charlie Spiering

Also

Exclusive — Discussion About GOP Replacement to Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House Intensifies in White House, Congress

Matthew Boyle

Jon Perr — CBO: GOP Health Care "Plans" May Not Count as "Insurance"

As Vox and The Hill among others have reported, Republicans are trying to reduce premiums by eliminating the ACA's list of 10 mandated benefits insurers must provide. These provisions regarding prescription drug coverage, hospitalization, out-patient treatment, mental health care, pregnancy and maternity care and much more not only set a baseline for insurance offerings under Obamacare, but also help spread the risk for insurers across a much larger pool of policyholders. And that, CBO warned Obamacare repealers in December, is a big problem as far as the agency is concerned...

PERRspectives
CBO: GOP Health Care "Plans" May Not Count as "Insurance"
Jon Perr