Showing posts with label BOJ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BOJ. Show all posts

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Bill Mitchell — Japan still to slip in the sea under its central bank debt burden

President Trump banned a CNN reporter only to find his position overturned by the judicial system. Well CNN is guilty of at least one thing – publishing misleading and alarmist economic reports about Japan. In a CNN Business article last week (November 13, 2018) – Japan’s economy has a $5 trillion problem – readers were told that the Bank of Japan has no “dwindling options to juice growth if a new crisis hits” because “it’s now sitting on assets worth more than the country’s entire economy”. The real story should have been that the Bank of Japan continues to demonstrate the categorical failure of mainstream macroeconomics and, conversely, ratify the core principles of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). That is what the Japanese experience since the early 1990s tells us. And all the stories about special cases; cultural peculiarities, closed markets, etc that the mainstream economists wheel out when another one of their predictions about how Japan is about to sink into the sea as a result of its public debt levels, or that interest rates are about to go through the roof because of the on-going and substantial fiscal deficits; or that inflation is about to accelerate because of the massive monetary injections; and more, are just smokescreens to divert our attention from the poverty of their analytical framework. The Japanese 10-year bond trade is called the ‘widow maker’ because hedge funds who try to short it lose big. The Japanese monetary system is my real-time, non-linear economic laboratory which allows all the key macroeconomic propositions to play out live. And MMT is never very far off the mark. Try juxtaposing New Keynesian theory against Japan – total dissonance....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Japan still to slip in the sea under its central bank debt burden
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Brian Romanchuk — Japan And The Costs Of Bond Yield Control

The dangers of distorting free market interest rates is one of the bits of market folklore that keeps getting passed around. There is actually not a whole lot of data to defend this view; it is best viewed as faith-based reasoning. This topic is particularly interesting in the case of Japan. I am somewhat agnostic on this issue; I do not see particular risks from manipulating the yield curve in the current environment, yet I can see some plausible dangers.
This article was triggered by the article "Bank of Japan once again shows who calls the shots," by Bill Mitchell, one of the leading Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) economists. In addition, I had a discussion about this topic with someone doing some research awhile ago. Rather than re-hash Professor Mitchell's points from the MMT perspective, I will put on my "generic market analyst" hat and give a description of the issue from a more theory-agnostic perspective....
Bond Economics
Japan And The Costs Of Bond Yield Control
Brian Romanchuk

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

USDJPY flying now. I called it April 7 when Japan announced its fiscal stimulus.

In my MMT Trader report of April 7, I recommended going long USDJPY. That trade now has a 200 pip profit.

That week, Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, announced that the government would "front load" the nation's public works' spending to the first half of FY 2016, which has just begun.

Fiscal stimulus. Bearish for yen.

The yen had a huge rally leading up to that announcement. It started around Jan 28 when the BOJ went, stupidly, to negative interest rates. That move was intended to push the yen down, but it did the opposite.

The yen's rally attracted a lot of speculative long positions in the futures market. Spec longs hit the highest level in four years. Clearly, the yen was due for a selloff and the fiscal stimulus was the signal I was looking for.

Last week Japan suffered another terrible earthquake and now there is discussion of a supplemental budget for cleanup and reconstruction. This was also covered in the MMT Trader report.

By the way, it also recommended buying Japanese indices or stocks--some ADR's traded on U.S. exchanges.

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