Elena Holodny — ROSENBERG: There's A Better Way To Trade Global Instability Than By Buying Gold

"Ordinarily, gold and commodities fare well in periods of global political tensions, but not this time, perhaps owing to the softness in domestic demand growth abroad. A better way to play the instability and stepped-up military expenditures may be through exposure to global defence stocks," Rosenberg writes.

Business Insider
ROSENBERG: There's A Better Way To Trade Global Instability Than By Buying Gold
Elena Holodny

Zero Hedge — David Rosenberg On "Shared Sacrifice"

David Rosenberg's analysis of the effect of austerity on aggregate demand, economic prospects under "disinflation," and the resulting effect on asset values. He gets that increased saving-deleveraging will be contractionary.

He thinks that "shared sacrifice," his euphemism for austerity, is needed to right the ship, so we had better get used to a new economy that won't look much like the one people have grown accustomed to. But there will be a lot less debt public and private, so the sacrifice will be worth it, he thinks. 

I would say that if this transpires as he foresees, we won't have a "disinflationary" situation but a deflationary one, as private debt crashes globally. I think that there is a lot in the scenario that Rosenberg either leaves out or just doesn't foresee looming. This would not be just some "belt-tightening" that the economy can live with.

Zero Hedge
David Rosenberg On "Shared Sacrifice"
From David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

David Rosenberg — Paul McCulley on capex trend

Paul McCulley, the former legendary economist and fund manager at PIMCO, who was once being touted to join the Fed as a policymaker, told me last year at the Altegris-Mauldin conference, the YoY trend in the three-month moving average of core capex orders had for a long time been his preferred indicator of how the broader economy was going to fare a few quarters into the future. Well, if you are bullish on U.S. growth prospects over the near-term, I suggest you look at the chart below:

David Rosenberg: INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY SOFTENING

Zero Hedge

Why Paul McCulley Would Be Shorting The Economy With Both Hands Right Now

Submitted by Tyler Durden

How's PIMCO been doing since McCulley left?

David Rosenberg — "time to start calling this for what it is: A modern day depression"

David Rosenberg calls it for what it is, like some of us have been calling it for some time:

We just came off the weakest recovery on record despite the massive amounts of stimulus that the U.S. government has delivered in so many ways. That the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is down to 2% already speaks volumes because the last time we were at these levels was back in December 2008 when the downturn was already 12 months old. A period like the one we have endured over the past six months when bank shares are down 30% and the 10- year note yield is down 130 basis points has never in the past foreshadowed anything very good coming down the pike. If market rates are at Japanese levels, or at 1930s levels, then it's time to start calling this for what it is: A modern day depression.

Read it all at Zero Hedge — From Breakfast with Rosie, of Gluskin Sheff