Prediction markets: one last look

Tomorrow is the election. Here are the latest graphs showing probabilities from Intrade and Iowa Electronic Markets. Obama is still strongly in the lead.

Intrade: Obama 67% Romney 33%    

   

Iowa Electronic Markets: Obama 75% Romney 25%

Obama crashing on Intrade now

Obama's nosedive on Intrade is accelerating. There's only about a 10 point difference separating him and Romney with less than two weeks to go. And his lead in the electoral vote count has pretty much evaporated.

I know a lot of you will say, "yeah, but he's still in the lead," however, it could be the trend that counts and his trend is definitely down, while Romney's is surging upward.

Romney ahead in electoral votes, at least according to betting data

This is the first time that I've seen the electoral map has flip to Romney. While polls had Obama and Romney neck and neck, with Romney even ahead in some, the electoral map remained firmly in Obama’s corner until now. This map is courtesy of Intrade.